Could the subprime crisis have been predicted? A mortgage risk modeling approach

The abnormally high mortgage default rates that became apparent in early 2007 were not foreseen in June 2005, when mortgage production reached its peak. Could the significant increase in mortgage defaults and the resultant subprime crisis have been predicted? This paper develops a mortgage-level predictive model for mortgage default and delinquency rates, based on a logistic regression and Markov chain framework. The results are compared against actual mortgage level default data and provide strong evidence that the high US nonprime mortgage default rates which triggered the crisis were already predictable in mid-2005 using historical data only available at the time

Poesía experimental: Cómo se actúa

Sección a cargo de José MolinaTraducciones de poemas de Nanni Balestrini (Milán, 1935), tomados de la sección "Corpi in moto e corpi in equilibrio" del libro Come si agisce (Feltrinelli, 1963)

La función hipertextual de la poesía

Vivimos en un momento incomparable en la negociación entre el espacio tradicional de la literatura y el auge de la era digital. “La literatura es cruel” afirma el poeta italiano Valerio Magrelli con este poema en forma de hipertexto. El despliegue de la matriz en once breves poemas autónomos, al contrario de sorprendernos por su asumida influencia del formato digital, nos asalta su extraordinaria naturalidad poética, es decir, nos muestra cómo el espacio de la poesía ha estado siempre atento a la invención y ha sido propicio para todo tipo de factura formal

Large Scale Features of Rotating Forced Turbulence

Large scale features of a randomly isotropically forced incompressible and unbounded rotating fluid are examined in perturbation theory. At first order in both the random force amplitude and the angular velocity we find two types of modifications to the fluid equation of motion. The first correction transforms the molecular shear viscosity into a (rotation independent) effective viscosity. The second perturbative correction leads to a new large scale non-dissipative force proportional to the fluid angular velocity in the slow rotation regime. This effective force does no net work and alters the dispersion relation of inertial waves propagating in the fluid. Both dynamically generated corrections can be identified with certain components of the most general axisymmetric ``viscosity tensor'' for a Newtonian fluid.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, RevTeX, and accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Italo Testa

Sección a cargo de José Molina.Traducción de poemas de Italo Testa (1972-)