Stochastic Differential Systems with Memory: Theory, Examples and Applications

The purpose of this article is to introduce the reader to certain aspects of stochastic differential systems, whose evolution depends on the past history of the state. Chapter I begins with simple motivating examples. These include the noisy feedback loop, the logistic time-lag model with Gaussian noise , and the classical ``heat-bath model of R. Kubo , modeling the motion of a ``large molecule in a viscous fluid. These examples are embedded in a general class of stochastic functional differential equations (sfde\u27s). We then establish pathwise existence and uniqueness of solutions to these classes of sfde\u27s under local Lipschitz and linear growth hypotheses on the coefficients. It is interesting to note that the above class of sfde\u27s is not covered by classical results of Protter, Metivier and Pellaumail and Doleans-Dade. In Chapter II, we prove that the Markov (Feller) property holds for the trajectory random field of a sfde. The trajectory Markov semigroup is not strongly continuous for positive delays, and its domain of strong continuity does not contain tame (or cylinder) functions with evaluations away from zero. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce a class of quasitame functions. These belong to the domain of the weak infinitesimal generator, are weakly dense in the underlying space of continuous functions and generate the Borel $\sigma$-algebra of the state space. This chapter also contains a derivation of a formula for the weak infinitesimal generator of the semigroup for sufficiently regular functions, and for a large class of quasitame functions. In Chapter III, we study pathwise regularity of the trajectory random field in the time variable and in the initial path. Of note here is the non-existence of the stochastic flow for the singular sdde $dx(t)= x(t-r) dW(t)$ and a breakdown of linearity and local boundedness. This phenomenon is peculiar to stochastic delay equations. It leads naturally to a classification of sfde\u27s into regular and singular types. Necessary and sufficient conditions for regularity are not known. The rest of Chapter III is devoted to results on sufficient conditions for regularity of linear systems driven by white noise or semimartingales, and Sussman-Doss type nonlinear sfde\u27s. Building on the existence of a compacting stochastic flow, we develop a multiplicative ergodic theory for regular linear sfde\u27s driven by white noise, or general helix semimartingales (Chapter IV). In particular, we prove a Stable Manifold Theorem for such systems. In Chapter V, we seek asymptotic stability for various examples of one-dimensional linear sfde\u27s. Our approach is to obtain upper and lower estimates for the top Lyapunov exponent. Several topics are discussed in Chapter VI. These include the existence of smooth densities for solutions of sfde\u27s using the Malliavin calculus, an approximation technique for multidimensional diffusions using sdde\u27s with small delays, and affine sfde\u27s

Weekend admission to hospital has a higher risk of death in the elective setting than in the emergency setting: a retrospective database study of national health service hospitals in England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although acute hospitals offer a twenty-four hour seven day a week service levels of staffing are lower over the weekends and some health care processes may be less readily available over the weekend. Whilst it is thought that emergency admission to hospital on the weekend is associated with an increased risk of death, the extent to which this applies to elective admissions is less well known. We investigated the risk of death in elective and elective patients admitted over the weekend versus the weekdays.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Retrospective statistical analysis of routinely collected acute hospital admissions in England, involving all patient discharges from all acute hospitals in England over a year (April 2008-March 2009), using a logistic regression model which adjusted for a range of patient case-mix variables, seasonality and admission over a weekend separately for elective and emergency (but excluding zero day stay emergency admissions discharged alive) admissions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 1,535,267 elective admissions, 91.7% (1,407,705) were admitted on the weekday and 8.3% (127,562) were admitted on the weekend. The mortality following weekday admission was 0.52% (7,276/1,407,705) compared with 0.77% (986/127,562) following weekend admission. Of the 3,105,249 emergency admissions, 76.3% (2,369,316) were admitted on the weekday and 23.7% (735,933) were admitted on the weekend. The mortality following emergency weekday admission was 6.53% (154,761/2,369,316) compared to 7.06% (51,922/735,933) following weekend admission. After case-mix adjustment, weekend admissions were associated with an increased risk of death, especially in the elective setting (elective Odds Ratio: 1.32, 95% Confidence Interval 1.23 to 1.41); vs emergency Odds Ratio: 1.09, 95% Confidence Interval 1.05 to 1.13).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Weekend admission appears to be an independent risk factor for dying in hospital and this risk is more pronounced in the elective setting. Given the planned nature of elective admissions, as opposed to the unplanned nature of emergency admissions, it would seem less likely that this increased risk in the elective setting is attributable to unobserved patient risk factors. Further work to understand the relationship between weekend processes of care and mortality, especially in the elective setting, is required.</p

The use of medicinal plants in health care practices by Rohingya refugees in a degraded forest and conservation area of Bangladesh

People in developing countries traditionally rely on plants for their primary healthcare. This dependence is relatively higher in forests in remote areas due to the lack of access to modern health facilities and easy availability of the plant products.We carried out an ethno-medicinal survey in Teknaf Game Reserve (TGR), a heavily degraded forest and conservation area in southern Bangladesh, to explore the diversity of plants used by Rohingya refugees for treating various ailments. The study also documented the traditional utilization, collection and perceptions of medicinal plants by the Rohingyas residing on the edges of this conservation area. We collected primary information through direct observation and by interviewing older respondents using a semi-structured questionnaire. A total of 34 plant species in 28 families were frequently used by the Rohingyas to treat 45 ailments, ranging from simple headaches to highly complex eye and heart diseases. For medicinal preparations and treating various ailments, aboveground plant parts were used more than belowground parts. The collection of medicinal plants was mostly from the TGR. © 2009 Taylor & Francis

Molecular epidemiology of camel trypanosomiasis based on ITS1 rDNA and RoTat 1.2 VSG gene in the Sudan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Internal transcribed spacer one (ITS1) of the ribosomal DNA is known to be a suitable target for PCR-based detection of trypanosomes. The analysis of this region provides a multi-species-specific diagnosis by a single PCR. Using ITS1 primer-based PCR, a cross sectional study was carried out in the period from September to November 2009 on samples collected from 687 camels from geographically distinct zones in the Sudan to detect all possible African trypanosomes, which can infect camels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results showed that all PCR-positive camels were infected with a single parasite species; <it>Trypanosoma evansi</it>. The highest prevalence, 57.1% (117/205), was observed in the Butana plains of mid-Eastern Sudan and the lowest, 6.0% (4/67), was in the Umshadeeda eastern part of White Nile State. In another experiment, the RoTat 1.2 gene encoding the variable surface glycoprotein (VSG) of <it>T. evansi </it>was analyzed for its presence or absence by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using <it>T. evansi </it>species-specific primers. The study showed that the RoTat 1.2 VSG gene was absent in thirteen out of thirty <it>T. evansi</it>-positive samples.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is concluded that camel trypanosomiasis in Sudan is apparently caused by a single parasite species <it>T. evansi </it>and there were no other typanosomes species detected. In addition, the disease is highly prevalent in the country, which strengthens the need to change control policies and institute measures that help prevent the spread of the parasite. To our knowledge, this is the first molecular diagnosis report, which gives a picture of camel trypanosomiasis covering large geographical areas in Sudan.</p

Generalised criteria on delay dependent stability of highly nonlinear hybrid stochastic systems

Our recent paper [2] is the first to establish delay dependent criteria for highly nonlinear hybrid stochastic differential delay equations (SDDEs) (by highly nonlinear we mean the coefficients of the SDDEs do not have to satisfy the linear growth condition). This is an important breakthrough in the stability study as all existing delay stability criteria before could only be applied to delay equations where their coefficients are either linear or nonlin- ear but bounded by linear functions (namely, satisfy the linear growth condition). In this continuation, we will point out one restrictive condition imposed in our earlier paper [2]. We will then develop our ideas and methods there in order to remove this restrictive condition so that our improved results cover a much wider class of hybrid SDDEs

Tobacco Smoking Using Midwakh Is an Emerging Health Problem – Evidence from a Large Cross-Sectional Survey in the United Arab Emirates

INTRODUCTION: Accurate information about the prevalence and types of tobacco use is essential to deliver effective public health policy. We aimed to study the prevalence and modes of tobacco consumption in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), particularly focusing on the use of Midwakh (Arabic traditional pipe). METHODS: We studied 170,430 UAE nationals aged ≥ 18 years (44% males and 56% females) in the Weqaya population-based screening program in Abu Dhabi residents during the period April 2008-June 2010. Self-reported smoking status, type, quantity and duration of tobacco smoked were recorded. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the study findings; prevalence rates used the screened sample as the denominator. RESULT: The prevalence of smoking overall was 24.3% in males and 0.8% in females and highest in males aged 20-39. Mean age (SD) of smokers was 32.8 (11.1) years, 32.7 (11.1) in males and 35.7 (12.1) in females. Cigarette smoking was the commonest form of tobacco use (77.4% of smokers), followed by Midwakh (15.0%), shisha (waterpipe) (6.8%), and cigar (0.66%). The mean durations of smoking for cigarettes, Midwakh, shisha and cigars were 11.4, 9.3, 7.6 and 11.0 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is most common among younger UAE national men. The use of Midwakh and the relatively young age of onset of Midwakh smokers is of particular concern as is the possibility of the habit spreading to other countries. Comprehensive tobacco control laws targeting the young and the use of Midwakh are needed

Patterns of Clinical Response with Talimogene Laherparepvec (T-VEC) in Patients with Melanoma Treated in the OPTiM Phase III Clinical Trial

PURPOSE: Talimogene laherparepvec (T-VEC) is an oncolytic immunotherapy designed to induce tumor regression of injected lesions through direct lytic effects, and of uninjected lesions through induction of systemic antitumor immunity. In this study, we describe the patterns and time course of response to T-VEC from the phase III OPTiM trial of 436 patients with unresected stages IIIB–IV melanoma. METHODS: Lesion-level response analyses were performed based on the type of lesion (injected or uninjected cutaneous, subcutaneous, or nodal lesions; or visceral lesions [uninjected]), and the best percentage change from baseline of the sum of products of the longest diameters was calculated. Patients randomized to T-VEC (n = 295) who experienced a durable response (continuous partial or complete response for ≥6 months) were evaluated for progression prior to response (PPR), defined as the appearance of a new lesion or >25 % increase in total baseline tumor area. RESULTS: T-VEC resulted in a decrease in size by ≥50 % in 64 % of injected lesions (N = 2116), 34 % of uninjected non-visceral lesions (N = 981), and 15 % of visceral lesions (N = 177). Complete resolution of lesions occurred in 47 % of injected lesions, 22 % of uninjected non-visceral lesions, and 9 % of visceral lesions. Of 48 patients with durable responses, 23 (48 %) experienced PPR, including 14 who developed new lesions only. No difference in overall survival was observed, and median duration of response was not reached in patients with PPR versus those without PPR. CONCLUSIONS: Responses in uninjected lesions provide validation of T-VEC-induced systemic immunotherapeutic effects against melanoma. PPR did not negatively impact the clinical effectiveness of T-VEC. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1245/s10434-016-5286-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The influence of personality and ability on undergraduate teamwork and team performance

The ability to work effectively on a team is highly valued by employers, and collaboration among students can lead to intrinsic motivation, increased persistence, and greater transferability of skills. Moreover, innovation often arises from multidisciplinary teamwork. The influence of personality and ability on undergraduate teamwork and performance is not comprehensively understood. An investigation was undertaken to explore correlations between team outcomes, personality measures and ability in an undergraduate population. Team outcomes included various self-, peer- and instructor ratings of skills, performance, and experience. Personality measures and ability involved the Five-Factor Model personality traits and GPA. Personality, GPA, and teamwork survey data, as well as instructor evaluations were collected from upper division team project courses in engineering, business, political science, and industrial design at a large public university. Characteristics of a multidisciplinary student team project were briefly examined. Personality, in terms of extraversion scores, was positively correlated with instructors’ assessment of team performance in terms of oral and written presentation scores, which is consistent with prior research. Other correlations to instructor-, students’ self- and peer-ratings were revealed and merit further study. The findings in this study can be used to understand important influences on successful teamwork, teamwork instruction and intervention and to understand the design of effective curricula in this area moving forward

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51%) but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31%) or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.</p