The power of context in networks: Ideal point models with social interactions

Game theory has been widely used for modeling strategic behaviors in networked multiagent systems. However, the context within which these strategic behaviors take place has received limited attention. We present a model of strategic behavior in networks that incorporates the behavioral context, focusing on the contextual aspects of congressional voting. One salient predictive model in political science is the ideal point model, which assigns each senator and each bill a number on the real line of political spectrum. We extend the classical ideal point model with network-structured interactions among senators. In contrast to the ideal point model\u27s prediction of individual voting behavior, we predict joint voting behaviors in a game-theoretic fashion. The consideration of context allows our model to outperform previous models that solely focus on the networked interactions with no contextual parameters. We focus on two fundamental problems: learning the model using real-world data and computing stable outcomes of the model with a view to predicting joint voting behaviors and identifying most influential senators. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through experiments using data from the 114th U.S. Congress

On Influence, Stable Behavior, and the Most Influential Individuals in Networks: A Game-Theoretic Approach

We introduce a new approach to the study of influence in strategic settings where the action of an individual depends on that of others in a network-structured way. We propose \emph{influence games} as a \emph{game-theoretic} model of the behavior of a large but finite networked population. Influence games allow \emph{both} positive and negative \emph{influence factors}, permitting reversals in behavioral choices. We embrace \emph{pure-strategy Nash equilibrium (PSNE)}, an important solution concept in non-cooperative game theory, to formally define the \emph{stable outcomes} of an influence game and to predict potential outcomes without explicitly considering intricate dynamics. We address an important problem in network influence, the identification of the \emph{most influential individuals}, and approach it algorithmically using PSNE computation. \emph{Computationally}, we provide (a) complexity characterizations of various problems on influence games; (b) efficient algorithms for several special cases and heuristics for hard cases; and (c) approximation algorithms, with provable guarantees, for the problem of identifying the most influential individuals. \emph{Experimentally}, we evaluate our approach using both synthetic influence games as well as several real-world settings of general interest, each corresponding to a separate branch of the U.S. Government. \emph{Mathematically,} we connect influence games to important game-theoretic models: \emph{potential and polymatrix games}.Comment: Accepted to AI Journal, subject to addressing the reviewers' points (which are addressed in this version). An earlier version of the article appeared in AAAI-1

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

The Role of Neighborhood Environment in Promoting Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disease among Young Adults: Data from Middle to High Income Population in an Asian Megacity

Background: Modifiable risk factors of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have their triggers in the neighborhood environments of communities. Studying the environmental triggers for CVD risk factors is important to understand the situation in a broader perspective. Young adults are influenced the most by the environment profile around them hence it is important to study this subset of the population.Methods: This was a descriptive study conducted using the EPOCH research tool designed by the authors of the PURE study. The study population consisted of young adults aged 18-25 in two areas of Karachi. The study setting was busy shopping malls frequented by young adults in the particular community being studied.Results: Our total sample size was 120 individuals, who consented to be interviewed by our interviewers. Less than 50% of the population recognized some form of restriction regarding smoking in their communities. The largest contributor to tobacco advertising was actors smoking in movies and TV shows with 89% responses from both communities. Only 11.9% of the individuals disapproved of smoking cigarettes among men with wide acceptance of \u27sheesha\u27 across all age groups. Advertising for smoking and junk food was more frequent as compared to smoking cessation, healthy diet and exercise in both the areas. Unhealthy food items were more easily available in contrast to healthier options. The cost of healthy snack food options including vegetables and fruits was higher than sugary drinks and foods.CONCLUSION: This assessment showed that both communities were exposed to environments that promote risk factors for cardiovascular diseases

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma : a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. Conclusions Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.Peer reviewe

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results: The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age- standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. Conclusions: Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.publishedVersio