Prediction of Emerging Technologies Based on Analysis of the U.S. Patent Citation Network

The network of patents connected by citations is an evolving graph, which provides a representation of the innovation process. A patent citing another implies that the cited patent reflects a piece of previously existing knowledge that the citing patent builds upon. A methodology presented here (i) identifies actual clusters of patents: i.e. technological branches, and (ii) gives predictions about the temporal changes of the structure of the clusters. A predictor, called the {citation vector}, is defined for characterizing technological development to show how a patent cited by other patents belongs to various industrial fields. The clustering technique adopted is able to detect the new emerging recombinations, and predicts emerging new technology clusters. The predictive ability of our new method is illustrated on the example of USPTO subcategory 11, Agriculture, Food, Textiles. A cluster of patents is determined based on citation data up to 1991, which shows significant overlap of the class 442 formed at the beginning of 1997. These new tools of predictive analytics could support policy decision making processes in science and technology, and help formulate recommendations for action

SAO-based semantic mining of patents for semi-automatic construction of a customer job map

The Outcome-Driven Innovation (ODI) method based on the 'Jobs-to-be-done' concept is very useful in the identification of unmet customer needs and has been adopted widely in the industry. The Job Map, a tool of the ODI method, is used to understand customers by defining their behavioral process. Complications must be overcome before the Job Map can be applied to the specific problem in question, such as a time-consuming process, dealing with a large amount of data, and experts' biased work. To solve these problems, this study develops a patent mining-based method based on the subject-action-object (SAO) structure to support the creation of a Job Map by semi-automatizing data collection and analysis. This effort at better utilizing computers in customer analysis for product design will contribute to expanding computerized methods for solving design and engineering problems in practice

Patent Classifications as Indicators of Intellectual Organization

Using the 138,751 patents filed in 2006 under the Patent Cooperation Treaty, co-classification analysis is pursued on the basis of three- and four-digit codes in the International Patent Classification (IPC, 8th edition). The co-classifications among the patents enable us to analyze and visualize the relations among technologies at different levels of aggregation. The hypothesis that classifications might be considered as the organizers of patents into classes, and that therefore co-classification patterns--more than co-citation patterns--might be useful for mapping, is not corroborated. The classifications hang weakly together, even at the four-digit level at the country level, more specificity can be made visible. However, countries are not the appropriate units of analysis because patent portfolios are largely similar in many advanced countries in terms of the classes attributed. Instead of classes, one may wish to explore the mapping of title words as a better approach to visualize the intellectual organization of patents

Foreign patents surge and technology spillovers in China (1985-2009): evidence from the patent and trade markets

The paper investigates the determinants of foreign patent surge and the effects of technology spillovers in China based on an industry-level sample of 19 countries and regions from 1985 to 2009. We explore two hypotheses to explain the increasing foreign propensity to patent and the effects of technology spillovers in China, the market covering hypotheses and competitive threat hypotheses. The results show strong support for the competitive threat hypothesis. However, the foreign patenting surge in China does not mean China has more access to outsource advanced technology; on the contrary the technology spillover from foreign countries in China is limited. The paper investigates the determinants of foreign patent surge and the effects of technology spillovers in China based on an industry-level sample of 19 countries and regions from 1985 to 2009. We explore two hypotheses to explain the increasing foreign propensity to patent and the effects of technology spillovers in China, the market covering hypotheses and competitive threat hypotheses. The results show strong support for the competitive threat hypothesis. However, the foreign patenting surge in China does not mean China has more access to outsource advanced technology; on the contrary the technology spillover from foreign countries in China is limited

Using international patent data to identify and assess opportunities for technology acquisition from government research agencies

In today's environment of rapid technological change and global competition, it is becoming increasingly difficult for firms to keep up with the advances being made around the world in various high technology fields. This article illustrates how firms can make use of international patent data to identify and assess possible sources of new technology for acquisition, particularly government laboratories. The technological activities of eight French research agencies are assessed through quantitative analyses of the patent applications they filed during the 1980s. The aspects of their technological activities that are examined include: (1) the level and direction of technological activity, measured by counts of international patent families; (2) the technological significance of the work being performed, measured by the number of subsequent patent citations; and (3) the commercial potential of the work, measured by the number of foreign countries in which patent protection for the resulting inventions is sought. It is then shown how firms can interpret this data to identify the technological work of government laboratories that may be of interest for possible licensing or joint venture agreements.