Using InVEST to assess ecosystem services on conserved properties in Sonoma County, CA

Purchases of private land for conservation are common in California and represent an alternative to regulatory land-use policies for constraining land use. The retention or enhancement of ecosystem services may be a benefit of land conservation, but that has been difficult to document. The InVEST toolset provides a practical, low-cost approach to quantifying ecosystem services. Using the toolset, we investigated the provision of ecosystem services in Sonoma County, California, and addressed three related questions. First, do lands protected by the Sonoma County Agricultural Preservation and Open Space District (a publicly funded land conservation program) have higher values for four ecosystem services — carbon storage, sediment retention, nutrient retention and water yield — than other properties? Second, how do the correlations among these services differ across protected versus non-protected properties? Third, what are the strengths and weaknesses of using the InVEST toolset to quantify ecosystem services at the county scale? We found that District lands have higher service values for carbon storage, sediment retention and water yield than adjacent properties and properties that have been developed to more intensive uses in the last 10 years. Correlations among the ecosystem services differed greatly across land-use categories, and these differences were driven by a combination of soil, slope and land use. While InVEST provided a low-cost, clearly documented way to evaluate ecosystem services at the county scale, there is no ready way to validate the results

Modelling land use and land cover changes in California’s landscapes

Land use land cover change (LULCC) patterns are constantly changing the Earth’s surface. Growing population numbers and an increased demand for housing, energy and food have not only expanded the human footprint into natural ecosystems but have also accelerated LULCC processes. Climate-driven land cover changes due to prolonged droughts and shifts in temperatures and precipitation patterns have also influenced the spatial configuration of land uses, and the distribution of ecological communities. Natural and anthropogenic forces along with their feedbacks and interdependencies are major drivers of global environmental change. Land use dynamics affect the distribution, composition, condition and vulnerability of ecosystems, influence soil properties and impact the livelihoods of people dependent on the productivity and health of the land and its natural resources. Given future climate uncertainties and increased resource demands, it is important to study land use change itself, understand the drivers behind land cover changes and assess the impacts of LULCC processes on socio-ecological systems. This dissertation investigates the causes and effects of land cover changes across various ecosystems in California, exploring the linkages between human activities and landscape changes. The first chapter provides a general overview of the framework that motivated my research, showcasing ways through which land system science as a field has improved our understanding of the world. The second chapter examines the role that land markets can play in conservation. Land conversion from natural vegetation to other uses such as development or agricultural uses is a dominant trend in California and results in habitat fragmentation, loss of natural ecosystems, loss of ecosystem services, and atmospheric carbon (C) emissions. To investigate the effects that conservation purchases have on C emissions and loss of vegetation, I analyze 73 conservation easements owned by the California State Coastal Conservancy (SCC). I develop counterfactual scenario simulations that show likely outcomes of land cover changes in the absence of conservation actions and calculate the benefits of protecting these lands in terms of avoided C emissions and avoided vegetation loss. I base my counterfactual scenario simulations on expert opinions gathered through property-specific appraisal reports provided by the SCC. I combine the information found in these reports with a comprehensive analysis of land cover changes in the vicinity of the areas studied to develop likely pathways of rural development and/or agricultural conversion. In this chapter I show that measuring the benefits of conservation purchases through the development of counterfactuals reveals that many of the properties purchased by the SCC did not experience a high risk of being converted to development and/or agricultural uses. A second important finding highlights that the location of the property and its vegetation significantly influence the likelihood of conversion and associated avoided carbon emissions. In particular high-carbon ecosystems, such as redwood forests, are less likely to become developed than lower-carbon ecosystems, such as grasslands. In my third chapter, I study one of the natural disturbances ingrained in the history of California: wildfire. With a landscape that is both fire prone as well as fire adapted, California often experiences active fire seasons. Recent years have been marked by large, catastrophic fire events that have burned hundreds of thousands of acres, destroying everything in their path, and affecting numerous communities and ecosystems. Fire modelling efforts help us better understand fire behavior and predict future fire occurrences. Conceptualizing fire-risk in fire prone landscapes and mapping how this risk will evolve through time are key components in effectively managing forest ecosystems, while minimizing and mitigating the impacts of large wildfire events. Yet, understanding the results of fire models can be challenging and difficult to represent using traditional geographic techniques. Since most of the variables that influence fire behavior are space and time variant, in this chapter, I propose a new approach of interpreting modeled wildfire predictions in 3D - across a continuum of space and time. Using modeled wildfire data created by Westerling (2018) and geographic information systems (GIS) space time mining capabilities (the Space Time Cube and Emerging Hot Spots Analysis functions), I identify different categories of wildfire hot spots and cold spots across California for different time periods, between 2000 and 2100. Furthermore, I show how wildfire patterns affect communities located at the wildland urban interface, and how wildfire hot spot patterns change across California’s ecoregions. To aid in the understanding of modeled wildfire activity, I create 3D visualizations to capture the evolution of fire activity. Adopting a space-time approach and identifying areas where fire threat is predicted to increase in the future can help prioritize high risk areas and direct fuel reduction and fire prevention efforts to vulnerable areas. In the fourth chapter, I investigate the effects of land cover changes in agricultural landscapes and study the main drivers behind these changes within one of the top agricultural producing counties in California – Kern County. I document the factors that influence landowners’ decisions to allocate their land in one of four main categories (nut trees, fruit trees, field & vegetable crops, and barren & rangeland). To achieve this goal, I build a series of multinomial logit models with panel data. At the parcel level, I analyze the effect of variables such as: parcel characteristics (size, slope, elevation), and parcel location (distance to: urban areas, roads, canals, wells, and protected lands) on land use transitions across a 10-year time interval (between 2008 and 2018). I further study the ways in which climatic variables might influence land use transitions among the four categories previously defined by documenting any noticeable trends in land cover changes associated with the extensive drought that California has experienced between 2012-2016. A better understanding of the drivers behind land use transitions is important in developing sustainable and resilient land management practices. For example, the change from annual crops to perennial crops (such as the expansion of almond orchards) has numerous repercussions for water use and for the environment. In addition to this, modelling land use transitions enables the development of predictive models that show what future land cover might look like. This is especially relevant in the context of climate variability (such as changes in the number of frost days), water shortages (depletion of groundwater resources), and increased temperatures. Throughout this dissertation, I explore ways in which geospatial techniques and land use modelling approaches can be used to provide a roadmap for environmental policy and land management. In the final chapter of this dissertation (Chapter 5), I discuss potential policy implications, highlight avenues for future research, and provide suggestions for adaptive management. Statistical and spatial land use modelling techniques can document the tradeoffs and feedbacks of land conversion and provide key insights on land cover dynamics. This information can be further used to reach conservation goals, improve management of working landscapes, and enhance ecosystem resilience to climate-related stressors

Karenia brevis Hot Spots in the West Florida Shelf and their Associated Socio-economic Implications

Harmful algal blooms are almost an annual occurrence on the West Florida Shelf. They are caused by the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis (K. brevis). Intense bloom events result in significant environmental, economic, and human-health impacts associated with the release of potent natural toxins, known as brevotoxins. If inhaled or ingested they can produce substantial adverse health effects. In order to mitigate and minimize the vast array of impacts associated with K. brevis blooms, an overarching interdisciplinary framework is needed. A critical factor in understanding K. brevis dynamics requires mapping and monitoring bloom development and transport, and identifying areas of localized bloom maxima, also referred to as bloom hot spots. To date, no studies have identified the spatial location and extent of clusters of statistically significant hot spots in Florida coastal waters. Few existing studies provide any confidence level when identifying areas characterized as hot spots. The goals of this research was to accurately identify K. brevis hot spot areas during different bloom periods, and explore potential correlations between school absenteeism rates and the distance from toxic bloom hot spots. Additionally, a coastal vulnerability index was developed in an attempt to assess the likelihood that some regions will experience greater health impacts from aerosolized brevotoxin exposure, compared to others. This was done through the use of Geographic Information System (GIS). The GIS Hot Spot Analysis function identified areas of significant clusters of K. brevis, while spatial interpolation methods illustrated a visual display of the extent and intensity of recurring coastal blooms

Using InVEST to assess ecosystem services on conserved properties in Sonoma County, CA

Purchases of private land for conservation are common in California and represent an alternative to regulatory land-use policies for constraining land use. The retention or enhancement of ecosystem services may be a benefit of land conservation, but that has been difficult to document. The InVEST toolset provides a practical, low-cost approach to quantifying ecosystem services. Using the toolset, we investigated the provision of ecosystem services in Sonoma County, California, and addressed three related questions. First, do lands protected by the Sonoma County Agricultural Preservation and Open Space District (a publicly funded land conservation program) have higher values for four ecosystem services — carbon storage, sediment retention, nutrient retention and water yield — than other properties? Second, how do the correlations among these services differ across protected versus non-protected properties? Third, what are the strengths and weaknesses of using the InVEST toolset to quantify ecosystem services at the county scale? We found that District lands have higher service values for carbon storage, sediment retention and water yield than adjacent properties and properties that have been developed to more intensive uses in the last 10 years. Correlations among the ecosystem services differed greatly across land-use categories, and these differences were driven by a combination of soil, slope and land use. While InVEST provided a low-cost, clearly documented way to evaluate ecosystem services at the county scale, there is no ready way to validate the results

Using InVEST to assess ecosystem services on conserved properties in Sonoma County, CA

Purchases of private land for conservation are common in California and represent an alternative to regulatory land-use policies for constraining land use. The retention or enhancement of ecosystem services may be a benefit of land conservation, but that has been difficult to document. The InVEST toolset provides a practical, low-cost approach to quantifying ecosystem services. Using the toolset, we investigated the provision of ecosystem services in Sonoma County, California, and addressed three related questions. First, do lands protected by the Sonoma County Agricultural Preservation and Open Space District (a publicly funded land conservation program) have higher values for four ecosystem services — carbon storage, sediment retention, nutrient retention and water yield — than other properties? Second, how do the correlations among these services differ across protected versus non-protected properties? Third, what are the strengths and weaknesses of using the InVEST toolset to quantify ecosystem services at the county scale? We found that District lands have higher service values for carbon storage, sediment retention and water yield than adjacent properties and properties that have been developed to more intensive uses in the last 10 years. Correlations among the ecosystem services differed greatly across land-use categories, and these differences were driven by a combination of soil, slope and land use. While InVEST provided a low-cost, clearly documented way to evaluate ecosystem services at the county scale, there is no ready way to validate the results

CA Coastal Conservancy Carbon Project Webinar-17-10-03

Webinar reporting results of project on ecosystem carbon sequestration across parcels acquired by the California State Coastal Conservancy. Projected conducted by the Climate Readiness Institute, Univ California Berkele

Land Acquisition and Ecosystem Carbon in Coastal California

Report produced for the California State Coastal Conservancy; Project of the Climate Readiness Institute, UC Berkeley. See accompanying webinar recording: <a href="https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5594437">https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5594437</a

Eastern Pacific Coral Reef Provinces, Coral Community Structure and Composition: An Overview

Advances in our knowledge of eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) coral reef biogeography and ecology during the past two decades are briefly reviewed. Fifteen ETP subregions are recognized, including mainland and island localities from the Gulf of California (Mexico) to Rapa Nui (Easter Island, Chile). Updated species lists reveal a mean increase of 4.2 new species records per locality or an overall increase of 19.2 % in species richness during the past decade. The largest increases occurred in tropical mainland Mexico, and in equatorial Costa Rica and Colombia, due mainly to continuing surveys of these under-studied areas. Newly discovered coral communities are also now known from the southern Nicaraguan coastline. To date 47 zooxanthellate scleractinian species have been recorded in the ETP, of which 33 also occur in the central/south Pacific, and 8 are presumed to be ETP endemics. Usually no more than 20–25 zooxanthellate coral species are present at any given locality, with the principal reef-building genera being Pocillopora, Porites, Pavona, and Gardineroseris. This compares with 62–163 species at four of the nearest central/south Pacific localities. Hydrocorals in the genus Millepora also occur in the ETP and are reviewed in the context of their global distributions. Coral community associates engaged in corallivory, bioerosion, and competition for space are noted for several localities. Reef framework construction in the ETP typically occurs at shallow depths (2–8 m) in sheltered habitats or at greater depths (10–30 m) in more exposed areas such as oceanic island settings with high water column light penetration. Generally, eastern Pacific reefs do not reach sea level with the development of drying reef flats, and instead experience brief periods of exposure during extreme low tides or drops in sea level during La Niña events. High rates of mortality during El Niño disturbances have occurred in many ETP equatorial areas, especially in Panama and the Galápagos Islands during the 1980s and 1990s. Remarkably, however, no loss of resident, zooxanthellate scleractinian species has occurred at these sites, and many ETP coral reefs have demonstrated significant recovery from these disturbances during the past two decades.Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología/[108302]/CONACYT/Costa RicaConsejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología/[183534]/CONACYT/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

Assessing extreme weather-related vulnerability and identifying resilience options for California's interdependent transportation fuel sector

California’s transportation fuel sector (TFS), whose assets supply crude oil from its source to end fuel users, will increasingly be exposed to extreme weather events including flooding and wildfire under climate change. Prior studies have not considered the TFS as one sector and its exposure and vulnerability to these weather events, nor have they projected and analyzed the exposure at spatial resolutions that are fine enough to inform stakeholders about the vulnerability of individual assets that are interconnected to reliably supply and distribute fuel. Therefore, we conceptualize the TFS into a physically and organizationally connected, multi-sector network. Using this network, we project and analyze climate-change-induced flooding and wildfire exposure at both coarse and fine spatial resolutions, across multiple temporal horizons and climate scenarios. We then assess the statewide TFS’s exposure with the coarse resolution projections and discuss with various stakeholders about their assets’ vulnerability using the fine resolution projections in areas of interest.We find that transportation fuel product pipelines and central product distribution terminals are the most critical assets within the TFS network, and that the network is dependent on supporting sectors such as electricity and natural gas. Our statewide analysis identifies docks, terminals, and refineries as the most exposed TFS assets to coastal flooding, whereas roads and railroads are the most exposed assets to wildfire. The fine resolution models and the focus on different planning horizons (i.e. every 20-years between 2000 and 2100) facilitate our discussion with the stakeholders, which shows that they have implemented and plan to adopt hardening measures (improvements to physical infrastructures) and resiliency actions (improvements to behavioral responses at the organizational level) to adapt their infrastructures to these weather events, and that the fine resolution exposure projections are effective tools to facilitate stakeholder discussions. Overall, we find the TFS’s vulnerability to flooding and wildfire is three-fold: the direct exposure and potential disruption of operations, the impact on its supporting assets, and the increased pressure on California’s emergency management infrastructure. These findings will assist the TFS in adapting to the changing climate