Forecasting time series by means of evolutionary algorithms

Proceeding of: 8th International Conference in Parallel Problem Solving from Nature - PPSN VIII , Birmingham, UK, September 18-22, 2004.The time series forecast is a very complex problem, consisting in predicting the behaviour of a data series with only the information of the previous sequence. There is many physical and artificial phenomenon that can be described by time series. The prediction of such phenomenon could be very complex. For instance, in the case of tide forecast, unusually high tides, or sea surges, result from a combination of chaotic climatic elements in conjunction with the more normal, periodic, tidal systems associated with a particular area. Too much variables influence the behaviour of the water level. Our problem is not only to find prediction rules, we also need to discard the noise and select the representative data. Our objective is to generate a set of prediction rules. There are many methods tying to achieve good predictions. In most of the cases this methods look for general rules that are able to predict the whole series. The problem is that usually the time series has local behaviours that dont allow a good level of prediction when using general rules. In this work we present a method for finding local rules able to predict only some zones of the series but achieving better level prediction. This method is based on the evolution of set of rules genetically codified, and following the Michigan approach. For evaluating the proposal, two different domains have been used: an artificial domain widely use in the bibliography (Mackey-Glass series) and a time series corresponding to a natural phenomenon, the water level in Venice Lagoon.Investigation supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through the TRACER project under contract TIC2002-04498-C05-

Infusing the UN Sustainable Development Goals into a global learning initiative

The Global Citizens Project (GCP) is a university-wide global learning initiative at the University of South Florida, aimed at enhancing undergraduate students’ global competencies through curricular and co-curricular experiences. The GCP uses the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a framework for these experiences. Understanding the SDGs allows students to expand their ideas on issues that exist in the world and how we might respond to the challenges. The purpose of this article is to provide a case study showing how the GCP has introduced students from all disciplines and undergraduate degree programmes to the SDGs through interdisciplinary workshops, with the aim of helping them to better understand the SDGs and connect global issues to their academic goals, professional objectives and everyday experiences. To determine whether the aims of the workshops were met, qualitative content analysis is employed to analyse the constructed responses of students who attended them. The results of the study suggest that the SDGs provide a relevant and sufficiently robust framework for guiding undergraduate students in their thinking about global issues as well as their relationship with these issues

Interpolatory methods for H∞\mathcal{H}_\infty model reduction of multi-input/multi-output systems

We develop here a computationally effective approach for producing high-quality $\mathcal{H}_\infty$-approximations to large scale linear dynamical systems having multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). We extend an approach for $\mathcal{H}_\infty$ model reduction introduced by Flagg, Beattie, and Gugercin for the single-input/single-output (SISO) setting, which combined ideas originating in interpolatory $\mathcal{H}_2$-optimal model reduction with complex Chebyshev approximation. Retaining this framework, our approach to the MIMO problem has its principal computational cost dominated by (sparse) linear solves, and so it can remain an effective strategy in many large-scale settings. We are able to avoid computationally demanding $\mathcal{H}_\infty$ norm calculations that are normally required to monitor progress within each optimization cycle through the use of "data-driven" rational approximations that are built upon previously computed function samples. Numerical examples are included that illustrate our approach. We produce high fidelity reduced models having consistently better $\mathcal{H}_\infty$ performance than models produced via balanced truncation; these models often are as good as (and occasionally better than) models produced using optimal Hankel norm approximation as well. In all cases considered, the method described here produces reduced models at far lower cost than is possible with either balanced truncation or optimal Hankel norm approximation

Geometric Phase, Curvature, and Extrapotentials in Constrained Quantum Systems

We derive an effective Hamiltonian for a quantum system constrained to a submanifold (the constraint manifold) of configuration space (the ambient space) by an infinite restoring force. We pay special attention to how this Hamiltonian depends on quantities which are external to the constraint manifold, such as the external curvature of the constraint manifold, the (Riemannian) curvature of the ambient space, and the constraining potential. In particular, we find the remarkable fact that the twisting of the constraining potential appears as a gauge potential in the constrained Hamiltonian. This gauge potential is an example of geometric phase, closely related to that originally discussed by Berry. The constrained Hamiltonian also contains an effective potential depending on the external curvature of the constraint manifold, the curvature of the ambient space, and the twisting of the constraining potential. The general nature of our analysis allows applications to a wide variety of problems, such as rigid molecules, the evolution of molecular systems along reaction paths, and quantum strip waveguides.Comment: 27 pages with 1 figure, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Cystic Fibrosis Foundation and European Cystic Fibrosis Society Survey of cystic fibrosis mental health care delivery

Background: Psychological morbidity in individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) and their caregivers is common. The Cystic Fibrosis Foundation (CFF) and European Cystic Fibrosis Society (ECFS) Guidelines Committee on Mental Health sought the views of CF health care professionals concerning mental health care delivery. Methods: An online survey which focused on the current provision and barriers to mental health care was distributed to CF health care professionals. Results: Of the 1454 respondents, many did not have a colleague trained in mental health issues and 20% had no one on their team whose primary role was focused on assessing or treating these issues. Insufficient resources and a lack of competency were reported in relation to mental health referrals. Seventy-three percent of respondents had no experience with mental health screening. Of those who did, they utilized 48 different, validated scales. Conclusions: These data have informed the decision-making, dissemination and implementation strategies of the Mental Health Guidelines Committee sponsored by the CFF and ECFS

Ecologically relevant measures of tolerance to potentially lethal temperatures

The acute thermal tolerance of ectotherms has been measured in a variety of ways; these include assays where organisms are shifted abruptly to stressful temperatures and assays where organisms experience temperatures that are ramped more slowly to stressful levels. Ramping assays are thought to be more relevant to natural conditions where sudden abrupt shifts are unlikely to occur often, but it has been argued that thermal limits established under ramping conditions are underestimates of true thermal limits because stresses due to starvation and/or desiccation can arise under ramping. These confounding effects might also impact the variance and heritability of thermal tolerance. We argue here that ramping assays are useful in capturing aspects of ecological relevance even though there is potential for confounding effects of other stresses that can also influence thermal limits in nature. Moreover, we show that the levels of desiccation and starvation experienced by ectotherms in ramping assays will often be minor unless the assays involve small animals and last for many hours. Empirical data illustrate that the combined effects of food and humidity on thermal limits under ramping and sudden shifts to stressful conditions are unpredictable; in Drosophila melanogaster the presence of food decreased rather than increased thermal limits, whereas in Ceratitis capitata they had little impact. The literature provides examples where thermal limits are increased under ramping presumably because of the potential for physiological changes leading to acclimation. It is unclear whether heritabilities and population differentiation will necessarily be lower under ramping because of confounding effects. Although it is important to clearly define experimental methods, particularly when undertaking comparative assessments, and to understand potential confounding effects, thermotolerance assays based on ramping remain an important tool for understanding and predicting species responses to environmental change. An important area for further development is to identify the impact of rates of temperature change under field and laboratory conditions

On the spherical-axial transition in supernova remnants

A new law of motion for supernova remnant (SNR) which introduces the quantity of swept matter in the thin layer approximation is introduced. This new law of motion is tested on 10 years observations of SN1993J. The introduction of an exponential gradient in the surrounding medium allows to model an aspherical expansion. A weakly asymmetric SNR, SN1006, and a strongly asymmetric SNR, SN1987a, are modeled. In the case of SN1987a the three observed rings are simulated.Comment: 19 figures and 14 pages Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science in the year 201

Content Validity of Anatomic Site-Specific Patient-Reported Outcomes Version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (PRO-CTCAE) Item Sets for Assessment of Acute Symptomatic Toxicities in Radiation Oncology

Purpose: To improve assessment of symptomatic toxicity in cancer clinical trials and complement clinician-based toxicity reporting, the US National Cancer Institute developed a measurement system called the Patient-Reported Outcomes version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (PRO-CTCAE). The objective of this study was to examine the content validity of PRO-CTCAE in patients undergoing radiation therapy and to establish anatomic site-specific item sets for implementation in cancer research. Methods and Materials: Patients receiving radiation to the brain, head and neck, breast, thorax, abdomen, or pelvis were recruited during the final week of radiation. Participants described side effects qualitatively and completed anatomic site-specific checklists indicating the presence or absence of symptomatic toxicities drawn from the PRO-CTCAE library. Items endorsed by ≥20% of participants were selected for inclusion. Symptomatic toxicities described qualitatively were content analyzed and summarized. Symptomatic toxicities not reflected in the PRO-CTCAE item library were tabulated. Results: We conducted 389 interviews of patients receiving radiation to the brain (n = 46), head and neck (n = 69), breast (n = 134), thorax (n = 30), abdomen (n = 27), female pelvis (n = 36), or male pelvis (n = 47). Median age was 62 years; 62% were female. The 53 solicited PRO-CTCAE symptoms reflected all reported radiation-induced toxicities with the exception of phlegm/mucus production and mouth/throat pain with swallowing in patients receiving head and neck radiation, eye dryness/irritation in patients undergoing brain radiation, and obstructive urinary symptoms in men receiving pelvic radiation. The PRO-CTCAE items “skin burns” and “pain” require greater specificity to adequately reflect toxicities experienced during radiation. Conclusions: PRO-CTCAE demonstrates strong content validity as a measure of symptomatic toxicities in patients receiving radiation. These results provide empirical support for the definition of site-specific PRO-CTCAE item sets to assess the symptomatic toxicities of radiation therapy. The site-specific PRO-CTCAE item sets developed herein are currently being deployed in our department via an electronic platform to capture treatment-related toxicity