Forecast model for radon concentrations in visitor caves

The aim of this project is to develop a mathematical forecast model which can be used to forecase the radon ceontrations in visitor caves and to assess its validity using statistical analysis of its outputs and datasets from other caves. The project consists of a literature review, the creation of a forecast model and a statistical analysis of the results of the model with comparison data. The aim of the literaure review is to identify any mathematical models involving radon concentrations and to find any datasets that could be used to develop a forecast model of the seasonal variations in radon concentrations. Having identified a suitable dataset for development of the model a model specific to that cave will be carried out. The results of this model will then be statistically anlysed using the original dataset and a second dataset for comparison purposes, following any necessary adjustments. This will identify whether a forecast model based on observed seasonal variations could be used to predict accurately the radon concetrations in a visitor cave. The use of a second dataset will indicate whether this model has the potential to be applied to other caves or whether predictive models would have to specifically developed for each cave system

Using workplace population statistics to understand retail store performance

We explore the value of recently released workplace geographies and accompanying census-based workplace zone statistics (WZS) and an associated classification of workplace zones (COWZ). We consider how these data could support retailers in their operational and strategic decision making, including the evaluation of retail demand and retail store performance in localities where trade is driven by non-residential demand. In collaboration with major UK grocery retailer ‘The Co-operative Group’ we explore the relationship between workplace population composition and store trading characteristics using a series of case study stores within Inner London. We use empirical store trading data to identify store and product category level temporal sales fluctuations attributable to workplace populations. We also use census-derived flow data to identify the spatial origins of workplace population inflow. We identify that store performance exhibits characteristics attributable to demand driven by these populations. We conclude that workplace population geographies, WZS and the COWZ afford considerable potential for understanding drivers of store performance, observed store trading patterns and evaluation of retail store performance. We suggest that the next step is to build these populations and their micro geography spatial and temporal characteristics into predictive models and evaluate their potential for store performance evaluation and location-based store and network decision making within this sector

A peer-led intervention to promote sexual health in secondary schools: the STASH feasibility study

Background: Young people report higher levels of unsafe sex and have higher rates of sexually transmitted infections than any other age group. Schools are well placed to facilitate early intervention, but more effective approaches are required. Peer-led approaches can augment school-based education, but often fail to capitalise on mechanisms of social influence. The potential of using social media in sexual health has not been tested in school settings. Objectives: Finalise the design of the Sexually Transmitted infections And Sexual Health (STASH) intervention; assess the recruitment and retention of peer supporters, and acceptability to participants and stakeholders; assess the fidelity and reach, in addition to the barriers to and facilitators of, implementation; refine programme theory; understand the potential of social media; determine design parameters for a future randomised controlled trial, including economic evaluation; and establish whether or not progression criteria were met. Design: This was a feasibility study comprising intervention development and refinement of the STASH pilot and non-randomised feasibility trial in six schools. Control data were provided by students in the year above the intervention group. Setting: Secondary schools in Scotland. Participants: Students aged 14–16 years, teachers and intervention delivery partners. Interventions: The STASH intervention was adapted from A Stop Smoking In Schools Trial (ASSIST) (an effective peer-led smoking intervention). Based on diffusion of innovation theory, the STASH study involves peer nomination to identify the most influential students, with the aim of recruiting and training 15% of the year group as peer supporters. The peer supporters deliver sexual health messages to friends in their year group via conversations and use of Facebook (www.facebook.com; Facebook, Inc., Menlo Park, CA, USA) to share varied content from a curated set of web-based resources. Peer supporters are given support themselves via follow-up sessions and via trainer membership of Facebook groups. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was whether or not progression criteria were met in relation to intervention acceptability and feasibility. The study also piloted indicative primary outcomes for a full-scale evaluation. Data sources: Peer supporter questionnaire; observations of activities; interviews with trainers, teachers, peer supporters and students; monitoring log of peer supporter activities (including on Facebook and meeting attendance); questionnaire to control year group (baseline characteristics, social networks, mediators and sexual health outcomes); baseline and follow-up questionnaire (approximately 6 months later) for intervention year group. Results: A total of 104 students were trained as peer supporters (just over half of those nominated for the role by their peers). Role retention was very high (97%). Of 611 students completing the follow-up questionnaire, 58% reported exposure to STASH study activities. Intervention acceptability was high among students and stakeholders. Activities were delivered with good fidelity. The peer supporters were active, representative of their year group and well connected within their social network. Carefully managed social media use by peer supporters augmented conversations. A primary outcome of ‘always safer sex’ was identified, measured as no sex or always condom use for vaginal or anal sex in the last 6 months. The intervention cost £42 per student. Six progression criteria were met. A seventh criterion (regarding uptake of role by peer supporters) was not. Limitations: Small feasibility study that cannot comment on effectiveness. Conclusions: The STASH intervention is feasible and acceptable within the context of Scottish secondary schools. The results support continuation to a full-scale evaluation. Future work: Small-scale improvements to the intervention, refinement to programme theory and funding sought for full-scale evaluation. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN97369178. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 8, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Long-term supplementation with anthocyanin-rich or -poor Rubus idaeus berries does not influence microvascular architecture nor cognitive outcome in the APP/PS-1 mouse model of Alzheimer’s disease

Disruption of microvascular architecture is a common pathogenic mechanism in the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Given the anti-angiogenic activity of berry (poly)phenols, we investigated whether long-term feeding of Rubus idaeus (raspberries) could ameliorate cerebral microvascular pathology and improve cognition in the APP/PS-1 mouse model of AD. Male C57Bl/6J mice (50 wild type, 50 APP/PS-1) aged 4-months were fed for 24-weeks, with a normal diet enriched with either 100 mg/day glucose (control diet) or supplemented with glucose and freeze-dried anthocyanin-rich (red) or -poor (yellow) raspberries (100 mg/day) and assessed/sampled post intervention. Cerebral microvascular architecture of wild-type mice was characterised by regularly spaced capillaries with uniform diameters, unlike APP/PS-1 transgenic mice which showed dysregulated microvascular architecture. Long-term feeding of raspberries demonstrated limited modulation of microbiota and no substantive effect on microvascular architecture or cognition in either mice model although changes were evident in endogenous cerebral and plasmatic metabolite

Long-term supplementation with anthocyanin-rich or -poor Rubus idaeus berries does not influence microvascular architecture nor cognitive outcome in the APP/PS-1 mouse model of Alzheimer's disease

Disruption of microvascular architecture is a common pathogenic mechanism in the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Given the anti-angiogenic activity of berry (poly)phenols, we investigated whether long-term feeding of Rubus idaeus (raspberries) could ameliorate cerebral microvascular pathology and improve cognition in the APP/PS-1 mouse model of AD. Male C57Bl/6J mice (50 wild type, 50 APP/PS-1) aged 4-months were fed for 24-weeks, with a normal diet enriched with either 100 mg/day glucose (control diet) or supplemented with glucose and freeze-dried anthocyanin-rich (red) or -poor (yellow) raspberries (100 mg/day) and assessed/sampled post intervention. Cerebral microvascular architecture of wild-type mice was characterised by regularly spaced capillaries with uniform diameters, unlike APP/PS-1 transgenic mice which showed dysregulated microvascular architecture. Long-term feeding of raspberries demonstrated limited modulation of microbiota and no substantive effect on microvascular architecture or cognition in either mice model although changes were evident in endogenous cerebral and plasmatic metabolite

Improving the Quality of Dentistry (IQuaD):a cluster factorial randomised controlled trial comparing the effectiveness and cost-benefit of oral hygiene advice and/or periodontal instrumentation with routine care for the prevention and management of periodontal disease in dentate adults attending dental primary care

Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Mark Forrest and the programming team at CHaRT; Cynthia Fraser, our information specialist, for assistance with referencing; Moira Swan, who was the dental research nurse and part of the OA team in Newcastle upon Tyne; Louise Campbell for secretarial support and data management; our original statistician in the group, Andy Elders; senior IT manager Gladys Macpherson; senior trial administrator at the TCOD Marilyn Laird; Luke Vale for his involvement with the design of the health economic analysis at the inception of the trial; Maria Dimitrova, who assisted the health economists in the collection of unit costs; staff of the Scottish Primary Care Research Network, who assisted with screening eligible patients at dental practices; staff of the North East Commissioning Support Unit who assisted with research payments to dental practices in the north-east; members of the TMC and Periodontal Advisory Group for their ongoing advice and support of the trial; the independent members of the TSC and DMC; and the staff at recruitment sites who facilitated recruitment, treatment and follow-up of trial participants. The Health Services Research Unit and the Health Economics Research Unit is core funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Feasibility study of peer-led and school-based social network Intervention (STASH) to promote adolescent sexual health

Background: Effective sex education is the key to good sexual health. Peer-led approaches can augment teacher-delivered sex education, but many fail to capitalise on mechanisms of social influence. We assessed the feasibility of a novel intervention (STASH) in which students (aged 14–16) nominated as influential by their peers were recruited and trained as Peer Supporters (PS). Over a 5–10-week period, they spread positive sexual health messages to friends in their year group, both in-person and via social media, and were supported to do so via weekly trainer-facilitated meetings. The aims of the study were to assess the feasibility of STASH (acceptability, fidelity and reach), to test and refine the programme theory and to establish whether the study met pre-set progression criteria for continuation to larger-scale evaluation. Methods The overall design was a non-randomised feasibility study of the STASH intervention in 6 schools in Scotland. Baseline (n=680) and follow-up questionnaires (approx. 6 months later; n=603) were administered to the intervention year group. The control group (students in year above) completed the follow-up questionnaire only (n=696), 1 year before the intervention group. The PS (n=88) completed a brief web survey about their experience of the role; researchers interviewed participants in key roles (PS (n=20); PS friends (n=22); teachers (n=8); trainers (n=3)) and observed 20 intervention activities. Activity evaluation forms and project monitoring data also contributed information. We performed descriptive quantitative analysis and thematic qualitative analysis. Results: The PS role was acceptable; on average across schools >50% of students nominated as influential by their friends, signed up and were trained (n=104). This equated to 13% of the year group. Trained PS rarely dropped out (97% completion rate) and 85% said they liked the role. Fidelity was good (all bar one trainer-led activity carried out; PS were active). The intervention had good reach; PS were reasonably well connected and perceived as ‘a good mix’ and 58% of students reported exposure to STASH. Hypothesised pre-conditions, contextual influences and mechanisms of change for the intervention were largely confirmed. All bar one of the progression criteria was met. Conclusion: The weight of evidence supports continuation to full-scale evaluation. Trial registration: Current controlled trials ISRCTN97369178

Feasibility study of peer-led and school-based social network Intervention (STASH) to promote adolescent sexual health

Background Effective sex education is the key to good sexual health. Peer-led approaches can augment teacher-delivered sex education, but many fail to capitalise on mechanisms of social influence. We assessed the feasibility of a novel intervention (STASH) in which students (aged 14–16) nominated as influential by their peers were recruited and trained as Peer Supporters (PS). Over a 5–10-week period, they spread positive sexual health messages to friends in their year group, both in-person and via social media, and were supported to do so via weekly trainer-facilitated meetings. The aims of the study were to assess the feasibility of STASH (acceptability, fidelity and reach), to test and refine the programme theory and to establish whether the study met pre-set progression criteria for continuation to larger-scale evaluation. Methods The overall design was a non-randomised feasibility study of the STASH intervention in 6 schools in Scotland. Baseline (n=680) and follow-up questionnaires (approx. 6 months later; n=603) were administered to the intervention year group. The control group (students in year above) completed the follow-up questionnaire only (n=696), 1 year before the intervention group. The PS (n=88) completed a brief web survey about their experience of the role; researchers interviewed participants in key roles (PS (n=20); PS friends (n=22); teachers (n=8); trainers (n=3)) and observed 20 intervention activities. Activity evaluation forms and project monitoring data also contributed information. We performed descriptive quantitative analysis and thematic qualitative analysis. Results The PS role was acceptable; on average across schools >50% of students nominated as influential by their friends, signed up and were trained (n=104). This equated to 13% of the year group. Trained PS rarely dropped out (97% completion rate) and 85% said they liked the role. Fidelity was good (all bar one trainer-led activity carried out; PS were active). The intervention had good reach; PS were reasonably well connected and perceived as ‘a good mix’ and 58% of students reported exposure to STASH. Hypothesised pre-conditions, contextual influences and mechanisms of change for the intervention were largely confirmed. All bar one of the progression criteria was met. Conclusion The weight of evidence supports continuation to full-scale evaluation

Using intuition or a formal palliative care needs assessment screening process in general practice to predict death within 12 months:A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Population ageing will lead to more deaths with an uncertain trajectory. Identifying patients at risk of dying could facilitate more effective care planning. AIM: To determine whether screening for likely death within 12 months is more effective using screening tools or intuition. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial of screening tools (Surprise Question plus the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool for Surprise Question positive patients) to predict those at risk of death at 12 months compared with unguided intuition (clinical trials registry: ACTRN12613000266763). SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Australian general practice. A total of 30 general practitioners (screening tool = 12, intuition = 18) screened all patients ( n = 4365) aged ≥70 years seen at least once in the last 2 years. RESULTS: There were 142 deaths (screening tool = 3.1%, intuition = 3.3%; p = 0.79). General practitioners identified more at risk of dying using Surprise Question (11.8%) than intuition (5.4%; p = 0.01), but no difference with Surprise Question positive then Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (5.1%; p = 0.87). Surprise Question positive predicted more deaths (53.2%, intuition = 33.7%; p = 0.001), but Surprise Question positive/Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool predictions were similar (5.1%; p = 0.87 vs intuition). There was no difference in proportions correctly predicted to die (Surprise Question = 1.6%, intuition = 1.1%; p = 0.156 and Surprise Question positive/Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool = 1.1%; p = 0.86 vs intuition). Screening tool had higher sensitivity and lower specificity than intuition, but no difference in positive or negative predictive value. CONCLUSION: Screening tool was better at predicting actual death than intuition, but with a higher false positive rate. Both were similarly effective at screening the whole cohort for death. Screening for possible death is not the best option for initiating end-of-life planning: recognising increased burden of illness might be a better trigger