Role of forestry in global land use scenarios for mitigating climate change

Land ist eine begrenzte Ressource, und die steigende Nachfrage nach Lebensmitteln, Futtermitteln und Holz treibt den Wettbewerb zwischen verschiedenen Landnutzungsarten voran. Landnutzungsmodelle, die Landnutzungsmuster optimieren und negative Kompromisse zwischen verschiedenen Landnutzungen minimieren, können bei der Bewertung solcher Landkonkurrenzdynamiken helfen. Angesichts des langen Planungshorizonts der Forstwirtschaft ist die Modellierung der Dynamik des Forstsektors in einem einzigen Modell eine Herausforderung. Diese Dissertation zeigt, dass zwischen Land- und Forstwirtschaft auf feinen räumlichen Skalen (halbe Grad Gitterauflösung) ein Wettbewerb um Land besteht, und die Berücksichtigung eines dynamischen Forstsektors in einem rekursiven dynamischen Modell wie MAgPIE verbessert die Bewertung der Landnutzung und der damit verbundenen Emissionen. Die Speicherung von Kohlenstoff in seit langem bestehenden Infrastrukturen wie städtischen Gebäuden könnte eine zusätzliche Option zur Abschwächung des Klimawandels sein und gleichzeitig Hotspots der biologischen Vielfalt und Grenzwälder vor der Umwandlung in andere Landnutzungsformen schützen, zusätzlich zu den bereits gut verstandenen und quantifizierten landbasierten Abschwächungsoptionen. Auf diese Weise wird nicht nur Kohlenstoff über lange Zeiträume in den Holzstädten der Zukunft gespeichert, sondern es wird auch dazu beigetragen, Emissionen aus der Produktion von Zement und Stahl für den Bau von Infrastrukturen in der Zukunft zu vermeiden. Auf der COP26 wurde eine Erklärung zum Ende der Entwaldung bis 2030 abgegeben. Eine mögliche Politik zur Umsetzung dieser Erklärung vor Ort wäre das Verbot der Ausdehnung landwirtschaftlicher Flächen auf bewaldete Flächen. Dies würde bedeuten, dass nicht bewaldete Flächen in einem noch nie dagewesenen Ausmaß in landwirtschaftliche Flächen umgewandelt würden. Land is a limited resource and the increasing demand for food, feed and timber drives competition between different land use types. Land-use models, which optimize land-use patterns and minimize negative trade-offs across land uses, can assist in assessing such land competition dynamics. Given the long planning horizon of forest management and competition for land with agriculture, modeling forestry sector dynamics in a single model is challenging. The Inclusion of a dynamic forest sector in the Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) helps in answering the overarching research question: What is the role of forestry in future land use? This dissertation shows that competition for land exists between agriculture and forestry on fine spatial scales (half degree grid resolution), and the consideration of a dynamic forestry sector in a recursive dynamic model like MAgPIE improves the assessment of land-use and its associated emissions. Understanding how production of roundwood influences the competition for land would help in quantifying how wood can be produced for timber cities of the future. Storing carbon in long-standing infrastructure like urban buildings could be an additional mitigation option, whilst protecting biodiversity hotspots and frontier forests from being converted to other land uses, on top of already well understood and quantified land-based mitigation options. This way, not only carbon is stored over long time spans in timber cities of the future, it also helps in avoiding emissions from production of cement and steel for construction of infrastructure in the future. Additionally, A declaration to end deforestation by 2030 was made at COP26. A potential policy implementing this declaration on the ground would be to prohibit the expansion of agricultural land into forested land. This would mean that non-forested land will be converted at unprecedented levels into agricultural land.

Zrównoważone źródła utrzymania Fundacji Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich jako droga do zrównoważonego rozwoju

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate and analyse the significance of the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) and its application to rural development projects and policies. A literature review is conducted, with the primary focus being on the primary components of the SLA. The researchers noted that the SLA effectively interrogates the livelihoods of the poor and the various mechanisms in the approach. These mechanisms include all forms of capital, the vulnerability aspect, livelihood strategies, and outcomes, as well as the different laws and regulations governing the access and use of resources. The research also noted that the SLA effectively addresses the poor’s vulnerabilities. Scholarly heavy hitters like Chambers and Scoones (1992) have pointed out that this method is all-encompassing and hierarchical. The methodology has demonstrated in a theoretical sense that it is beneficial in understanding the livelihoods problem of the less fortunate in rural communities. It is strongly suggested that the government and its development partners adopt and incorporate the SLA into their policies to ensure sustainable livelihoods leading to sustainable development.Głównym celem tego badania jest ocena i analiza znaczenia zrównoważonych źródeł utrzymania (SLA) i ich zastosowania w projektach i politykach rozwoju obszarów wiejskich. Przegląd literatury skupia się przede wszystkim na głównych składnikach umowy SLA. Zauważono, że SLA skutecznie bada źródła utrzymania ubogich i różne mechanizmy w tym podejściu. Mechanizmy te obejmują wszystkie formy kapitału, aspekt podatności na zagrożenia, strategie utrzymania i wyniki, a także różne prawa i regulacje regulujące dostęp do zasobów i korzystanie z nich. W badaniu zauważono również, że umowa SLA skutecznie eliminuje słabe punkty biednych. Badacze, tacy jak Chambers i Scoones (1992), zwrócili uwagę, że ta metoda obejmuje całość problematyki i jest hierarchiczna. Od strony teoretycznej wykazano, że jest ona korzystna dla zrozumienia problemu środków do życia osób mniej szczęśliwych w społecznościach wiejskich. Stanowczo zaleca się, aby rząd i jego partnerzy rozwojowi przyjęli i włączyli umowę SLA do swoich polityk w celu zapewnienia zrównoważonych źródeł utrzymania prowadzących do zrównoważonego rozwoju

The world’s growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts

Global municipal waste production causes multiple environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, ocean plastic accumulation, and nitrogen pollution. However, estimates of both past and future development of waste and pollution are scarce. We apply compositional Bayesian regression to produce the first estimates of past and future (1965–2100) waste generation disaggregated by composition and treatment, along with resultant environmental impacts, for every country. We find that total wastes grow at declining speed with economic development, and that global waste generation has increased from 635 Mt in 1965 to 1999 Mt in 2015 and reaches 3539 Mt by 2050 (median values, middle-of-the-road scenario). From 2015 to 2050, the global share of organic waste declines from 47% to 39%, while all other waste type shares increase, especially paper. The share of waste treated in dumps declines from 28% to 18%, and more sustainable recycling, composting, and energy recovery treatments increase. Despite these increases, we estimate environmental loads to continue increasing in the future, although yearly plastic waste input into the oceans has reached a peak. Waste production does not appear to follow the environmental Kuznets curve, and current projections do not meet UN SDGs for waste reduction. Our study shows that a continuation of current trends and improvements is insufficient to reduce pressures on natural systems and achieve a circular economy. Relative to 2015, the amount of recycled waste would need to increase from 363 Mt to 740 Mt by 2030 to begin reducing unsustainable waste generation, compared to 519 Mt currently projected

The world’s growing municipal solid waste

Global municipal waste production causes multiple environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, ocean plastic accumulation, and nitrogen pollution. However, estimates of both past and future development of waste and pollution are scarce. We apply compositional Bayesian regression to produce the first estimates of past and future (1965–2100) waste generation disaggregated by composition and treatment, along with resultant environmental impacts, for every country. We find that total wastes grow at declining speed with economic development, and that global waste generation has increased from 635 Mt in 1965 to 1999 Mt in 2015 and reaches 3539 Mt by 2050 (median values, middle-of-the-road scenario). From 2015 to 2050, the global share of organic waste declines from 47% to 39%, while all other waste type shares increase, especially paper. The share of waste treated in dumps declines from 28% to 18%, and more sustainable recycling, composting, and energy recovery treatments increase. Despite these increases, we estimate environmental loads to continue increasing in the future, although yearly plastic waste input into the oceans has reached a peak. Waste production does not appear to follow the environmental Kuznets curve, and current projections do not meet UN SDGs for waste reduction. Our study shows that a continuation of current trends and improvements is insufficient to reduce pressures on natural systems and achieve a circular economy. Relative to 2015, the amount of recycled waste would need to increase from 363 Mt to 740 Mt by 2030 to begin reducing unsustainable waste generation, compared to 519 Mt currently projected.DAAD Study Scholarship for Graduates of All DisciplinesSHAPE ProjectPeer Reviewe

Constructive Deviance in Organizations: Integrating and Moving Forward

A growing literature explores the notion of constructive deviance conceptualized as behaviors that depart from the norms of the reference group such that they benefit the reference group and conform to hypernorms. We argue that constructive deviance is an umbrella term that encompasses several different behaviors, including taking charge, creative performance, expressing voice, whistle-blowing, extra-role behaviors, prosocial behaviors, prosocial rule breaking, counter-role behaviors, and issue selling. Using the three common mechanisms underlying constructive deviance to organize our review (intrinsic motivation, felt obligation, and psychological empowerment), we provide an emergent model that integrates extant empirical work on the antecedents of constructive deviance. We conclude by discussing issues for future research, such as examining obstacles, outcomes, and unexplored mechanism dynamics associated with constructive deviance. </jats:p

Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a residential school at Panchgani, Maharashtra, India

Background &amp; objectives: An outbreak of influenza was investigated between June 24 and July 30, 2009 in a residential school at Panchgani, Maharashtra, India. The objectives were to determine the aetiology, study the clinical features in the affected individuals and, important epidemiological and environmental factors. The nature of public health response and effectiveness of the control measures were also evaluated. Methods: Real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction was performed on throat swabs collected from 82 suspected cases to determine the influenza types (A or B) and sub-types [pandemic (H1N1) 2009, as well as seasonal influenza H1N1, H3N2]. Haemagglutination inhibition assay was performed on serum samples collected from entire school population (N = 415) to detect antibodies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009, seasonal H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B/Yamagata and B/Victoria lineages. Antibody titres ≥ 10 for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and ≥ 20 for seasonal influenza A and B were considered as positive for these viruses. Results: Clinical attack rate for influenza-like illness was 71.1 per cent (295/415). The attack rate for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases was 42.4 per cent (176/415). Throat swabs were collected from 82 cases, of which pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus was detected in 15 (18.3%), influenza type A in (6) 7.4 per cent and influenza type B only in one case. A serosurvey carried out showed haemagglutination inhibition antibodies to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in 52 per cent (216) subjects in the school and 9 per cent (22) in the community. Interpretation &amp; conclusion: Our findings confirmed an outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 due to local transmission among students in a residential school at Panchgani, Maharashtra, India

Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach

The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation. The sustainable development goals and the planetary boundaries define targets to manage this challenge. Many of these are linked to the land system, such as biodiversity, water, food, nutrients and climate, and are strongly interconnected. A key question is how measures can be designed in the context of multi-dimensional sustainability targets to exploit synergies. To address this, a nexus approach is adopted that acknowledges the interconnectedness between the important sub-systems water, land, food, and climate. This study quantifies synergies and trade-offs from ambitious interventions in different components of this water-land-fod-climate nexus at the global scale. For this purpose, a set of six harmonized scenarios is simulated with the model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment and Integrated model to assess the global environment models. The multi-model approach improves robustness of the results while shedding light on variations coming from different modelling approaches. Our results show that measures in the food component towards healthy diets with low meat consumption have synergies with all other nexus dimensions: Increased natural land improving terrestrial biodiversity (+4% to +8%), lower greenhouse gas emissions from land (−45% to −58%), reduced irrigation water withdrawals to protect or restore hydrological environmental flows (−3% to −24%), and reductions in nitrogen surpluses (−23% to −35%). Climate mitigation measures in line with the Paris Agreement have trade-offs with the water and food components of the nexus, as they adversely affect irrigation water withdrawals (+5% to +30% in 2050 compared to reference scenario) and food prices (+1% to +20%). The analysis of a scenario combining all measures reveals how certain measures are in conflict while others reinforce each other. This study provides an example of a nexus approach to scenario analysis providing input to the next generation of pathways aiming to achieve multiple dimensions of sustainable development.SHAPEHorizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007636Peer Reviewe

The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection

The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward-looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure. We find that by 2050, 45% (39–52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13–20%) obese, compared to 29% and 9% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4–0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal-source foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increases insufficiently. Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43–47) Exajoules. Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal-source foods, and overweight could synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not substantially increase food demand

MAgPIE 4 – a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems

The open-source modeling framework MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment) combines economic and biophysical approaches to simulate spatially explicit global scenarios of land use within the 21st century and the respective interactions with the environment. Besides various other projects, it was used to simulate marker scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and contributed substantially to multiple IPCC assessments. However, with growing scope and detail, the non-linear model has become increasingly complex, computationally intensive and non-transparent, requiring structured approaches to improve the development and evaluation of the model. Here, we provide an overview on version 4 of MAgPIE and how it addresses these issues of increasing complexity using new technical features: modular structure with exchangeable module implementations, flexible spatial resolution, in-code documentation, automatized code checking, model/output evaluation and open accessibility. Application examples provide insights into model evaluation, modular flexibility and region-specific analysis approaches. While this paper is focused on the general framework as such, the publication is accompanied by a detailed model documentation describing contents and equations, and by model evaluation documents giving insights into model performance for a broad range of variables. With the open-source release of the MAgPIE 4 framework, we hope to contribute to more transparent, reproducible and collaborative research in the field. Due to its modularity and spatial flexibility, it should provide a basis for a broad range of land-related research with economic or biophysical, global or regional focus