Experience with chronic haemodialysis in Johannesburg

Since 1966 the treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease in Johannesburg has primarily been renal transplantation. This has required an adequate programme of regular dialysis. All patients were treated at the central hospital or at two small satellite units. A total of 158 patients, mean age 34,2 years (88 males) have been dialysed. The mean duration on dialysis prior to transplantation was 5,6 months (range 1 week - 23 months). The commonest cause of renal failure in males was chronic glomerulonephritis (63%), whereas in females it was analgesic nephropathy (39%). Twenty-seven patients (17%) died while on dialysis, including 6 who had had unsuccessful transplantations. Renal osteodystrophy was diagnosed in 30% of the patients. Hepatitis has been endemic among both patients and staff. Nephrectomies were done in 106 patients. Ten patients had operations for peptic ulcer and 5 parathyroidectomies were performed. The number of patients unsuccessfully transplanted, or who died, was less than the number of new patients requiring treatment. In addition, an increasing proportion of patients have become 'relatively untransplaotable'. This has led to overloading of facilities.S. Afr. Med. J., 48, 1821 (1974

A Relativistic Type Ibc Supernova Without a Detected Gamma-ray Burst

Long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) mark the explosive death of some massive stars and are a rare sub-class of Type Ibc supernovae (SNe Ibc). They are distinguished by the production of an energetic and collimated relativistic outflow powered by a central engine (an accreting black hole or neutron star). Observationally, this outflow is manifested in the pulse of gamma-rays and a long-lived radio afterglow. To date, central engine-driven SNe have been discovered exclusively through their gamma-ray emission, yet it is expected that a larger population goes undetected due to limited satellite sensitivity or beaming of the collimated emission away from our line-of-sight. In this framework, the recovery of undetected GRBs may be possible through radio searches for SNe Ibc with relativistic outflows. Here we report the discovery of luminous radio emission from the seemingly ordinary Type Ibc SN 2009bb, which requires a substantial relativistic outflow powered by a central engine. The lack of a coincident GRB makes SN 2009bb the first engine-driven SN discovered without a detected gamma-ray signal. A comparison with our extensive radio survey of SNe Ibc reveals that the fraction harboring central engines is low, ~1 percent, measured independently from, but consistent with, the inferred rate of nearby GRBs. Our study demonstrates that upcoming optical and radio surveys will soon rival gamma-ray satellites in pinpointing the nearest engine-driven SNe. A similar result for a different supernova is reported independently.Comment: To appear in Nature on Jan 28 2010. Embargoed for discussion in the press until 13:00 US Eastern Time on Jan 27 (Accepted version, 27 pages, Manuscript and Suppl. Info.

Childhood Brain Tumours: Associations With Parental Occupational Exposure to Solvents

Background: Parental occupational exposures have been associated with childhood brain tumours (CBT), but results are inconsistent. Few studies have studied CBT risk and parental solvent exposure, suggesting a possible association. We examined the association between CBT and parental occupational exposure to solvents in a case–control study.Methods: Parents of 306 cases and 950 controls completed detailed occupational histories. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for both maternal and paternal exposure to benzene, other aromatics, aliphatics and chlorinated solvents in key time periods relative to the birth of their child. Adjustments were made for matching variables (child’s age, sex and state of residence), best parental education and occupational exposure to diesel exhaust.Results: An increased risk of CBT was observed with maternal occupational exposures to chlorinated solvents (OR=8.59, 95% CI 0.94–78.9) any time before birth. Paternal exposure to solvents in the year before conception was associated with an increased CBT risk: OR=1.55 (95% CI 0.99–2.43). This increased risk appeared to be mainly attributable to exposure to aromatic solvents: OR=2.72 (95% CI 0.94–7.86) for benzene and OR=1.76 (95% CI 1.10–2.82) for other aromatics.Conclusions: Our results indicate that parental occupational exposures to solvents may be related to an increased risk of CBT

Sea-level constraints on the amplitude and source distribution of Meltwater Pulse 1A.

During the last deglaciation, sea levels rose as ice sheets retreated. This climate transition was punctuated by periods of more intense melting; the largest and most rapid of these—Meltwater Pulse 1A—occurred about 14,500 years ago, with rates of sea-level rise reaching approximately 4 m per century1, 2, 3. Such rates of rise suggest ice-sheet instability, but the meltwater sources are poorly constrained, thus limiting our understanding of the causes and impacts of the event4, 5, 6, 7. In particular, geophysical modelling studies constrained by tropical sea-level records1, 8, 9 suggest an Antarctic contribution of more than seven metres, whereas most reconstructions10 from Antarctica indicate no substantial change in ice-sheet volume around the time of Meltwater Pulse 1A. Here we use a glacial isostatic adjustment model to reinterpret tropical sea-level reconstructions from Barbados2, the Sunda Shelf3 and Tahiti1. According to our results, global mean sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A was between 8.6 and 14.6 m (95% probability). As for the melt partitioning, we find an allowable contribution from Antarctica of either 4.1 to 10.0 m or 0 to 6.9 m (95% probability), using two recent estimates11, 12 of the contribution from the North American ice sheets. We conclude that with current geologic constraints, the method applied here is unable to support or refute the possibility of a significant Antarctic contribution to Meltwater Pulse 1A

Cost-Effective Strategies for Mitigating a Future Influenza Pandemic with H1N1 2009 Characteristics

Background: We performed an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic intervention strategies using a detailed, individual-based simulation model of a community in Australia together with health outcome data of infected individuals gathered during 2009–2010. The aim was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a range of interventions to determine the most cost-effective strategies suitable for a future pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using transmissibility, age-stratified attack rates and health outcomes determined from H1N1 2009 data, we determined that the most cost-effective strategies involved treatment and household prophylaxis using antiviral drugs combined with limited duration school closure, with costs ranging from $632 to$777 per case prevented. When school closure was used as a sole intervention we found the use of limited duration school closure to be significantly more cost-effective compared to continuous school closure, a result with applicability to countries with limited access to antiviral drugs. Other social distancing strategies, such as reduced workplace attendance, were found to be costly due to productivity losses. Conclusion: The mild severity (low hospitalisation and case fatality rates) and low transmissibility of H1N1 2009 meant that health treatment costs were dominated by the higher productivity losses arising from workplace absence due to illness and childcare requirements following school closure. Further analysis for higher transmissibility but with the same, mild severit

Nutritional supplementation for nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of non-alcohol-related fatty liver disease (NAFLD) varies between 19% and 33% in different populations. NAFLD decreases life expectancy and increases risks of liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and the requirement for liver transplantation. Uncertainty surrounds relative benefits and harms of various nutritional supplements in NAFLD. Currently no nutritional supplement is recommended for people with NAFLD. OBJECTIVES: • To assess the benefits and harms of different nutritional supplements for treatment of NAFLD through a network meta-analysis • To generate rankings of different nutritional supplements according to their safety and efficacy SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers until February 2021 to identify randomised clinical trials in people with NAFLD. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included only randomised clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) for people with NAFLD, irrespective of method of diagnosis, age and diabetic status of participants, or presence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We excluded randomised clinical trials in which participants had previously undergone liver transplantation. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We performed a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods whenever possible and calculated differences in treatments using hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratios (ORs), and rate ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) based on an available-case analysis, according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance. MAIN RESULTS: We included in the review a total of 202 randomised clinical trials (14,200 participants). Nineteen trials were at low risk of bias. A total of 32 different interventions were compared in these trials. A total of 115 trials (7732 participants) were included in one or more comparisons. The remaining trials did not report any of the outcomes of interest for this review. Follow-up ranged from 1 month to 28 months. The follow-up period in trials that reported clinical outcomes was 2 months to 28 months. During this follow-up period, clinical events related to NAFLD such as mortality, liver cirrhosis, liver decompensation, liver transplantation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality were sparse. We did not calculate effect estimates for mortality because of sparse data (zero events for at least one of the groups in the trial). None of the trials reported that they measured overall health-related quality of life using a validated scale. The evidence is very uncertain about effects of interventions on serious adverse events (number of people or number of events). We are very uncertain about effects on adverse events of most of the supplements that we investigated, as the evidence is of very low certainty. However, people taking PUFA (polyunsaturated fatty acid) may be more likely to experience an adverse event than those not receiving an active intervention (network meta-analysis results: OR 4.44, 95% CrI 2.40 to 8.48; low-certainty evidence; 4 trials, 203 participants; direct evidence: OR 4.43, 95% CrI 2.43 to 8.42). People who take other supplements (a category that includes nutritional supplements other than vitamins, fatty acids, phospholipids, and antioxidants) had higher numbers of adverse events than those not receiving an active intervention (network meta-analysis: rate ratio 1.73, 95% CrI 1.26 to 2.41; 6 trials, 291 participants; direct evidence: rate ratio 1.72, 95% CrI 1.25 to 2.40; low-certainty evidence). Data were sparse (zero events in all groups in the trial) for liver transplantation, liver decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. So, we did not perform formal analysis for these outcomes. The evidence is very uncertain about effects of other antioxidants (antioxidants other than vitamins) compared to no active intervention on liver cirrhosis (HR 1.68, 95% CrI 0.23 to 15.10; 1 trial, 99 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about effects of interventions in any of the remaining comparisons, or data were sparse (with zero events in at least one of the groups), precluding formal calculations of effect estimates. Data were probably because of the very short follow-up period (2 months to 28 months). It takes follow-up of 8 to 28 years to detect differences in mortality between people with NAFLD and the general population. Therefore, it is unlikely that differences in clinical outcomes are noted in trials providing less than 5 to 10 years of follow-up. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about effects of nutritional supplementation compared to no additional intervention on all clinical outcomes for people with non-alcohol-related fatty liver disease. Accordingly, high-quality randomised comparative clinical trials with adequate follow-up are needed. We propose registry-based randomised clinical trials or cohort multiple randomised clinical trials (study design in which multiple interventions are trialed within large longitudinal cohorts of patients to gain efficiencies and align trials more closely to standard clinical practice) comparing interventions such as vitamin E, prebiotics/probiotics/synbiotics, PUFAs, and no nutritional supplementation. The reason for the choice of interventions is the impact of these interventions on indirect outcomes, which may translate to clinical benefit. Outcomes in such trials should be mortality, health-related quality of life, decompensated liver cirrhosis, liver transplantation, and resource utilisation measures including costs of intervention and decreased healthcare utilisation after minimum follow-up of 8 years (to find meaningful differences in clinically important outcomes)

Lifestyle modifications for nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease (NAFLD) varies between 19% and 33% in different populations. NAFLD decreases life expectancy and increases the risks of liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and requirement for liver transplantation. There is uncertainty surrounding the relative benefits and harms of various lifestyle interventions for people with NAFLD. OBJECTIVES: To assess the comparative benefits and harms of different lifestyle interventions in the treatment of NAFLD through a network meta-analysis, and to generate rankings of the different lifestyle interventions according to their safety and efficacy. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers until February 2021 to identify randomised clinical trials in people with NAFLD. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included only randomised clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) in people with NAFLD, whatever the method of diagnosis, age, and diabetic status of participants, or presence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We excluded randomised clinical trials in which participants had previously undergone liver transplantation. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We planned to perform a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods and to calculate the differences in treatments using hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratios (ORs), and rate ratios (RaRs) with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) based on an available-participant analysis, according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance. However, the data were too sparse for the clinical outcomes. We therefore performed only direct comparisons (head-to-head comparisons) with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods. MAIN RESULTS: We included a total of 59 randomised clinical trials (3631 participants) in the review. All but two trials were at high risk of bias. A total of 33 different interventions, ranging from advice to supervised exercise and special diets, or a combination of these and no additional intervention were compared in these trials. The reference treatment was no active intervention. Twenty-eight trials (1942 participants) were included in one or more comparisons. The follow-up ranged from 1 month to 24 months. The remaining trials did not report any of the outcomes of interest for this review. The follow-up period in the trials that reported clinical outcomes was 2 months to 24 months. During this short follow-up period, clinical events related to NAFLD such as mortality, liver cirrhosis, liver decompensation, liver transplantation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality were sparse. This is probably because of the very short follow-up periods. It takes a follow-up of 8 years to 28 years to detect differences in mortality between people with NAFLD and the general population. It is therefore unlikely that differences by clinical outcomes will be noted in trials with less than 5 years to 10 years of follow-up. In one trial, one participant developed an adverse event. There were no adverse events in any of the remaining participants in this trial, or in any of the remaining trials, which seemed to be directly related to the intervention. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effects of the lifestyle interventions compared with no additional intervention (to general public health advice) on any of the clinical outcomes after a short follow-up period of 2 months to 24 months in people with nonalcohol-related fatty liver disease. Accordingly, high-quality randomised clinical trials with adequate follow-up are needed. We propose registry-based randomised clinical trials or cohort multiple randomised clinical trials (a study design in which multiple interventions are trialed within large longitudinal cohorts of participants to gain efficiencies and align trials more closely to standard clinical practice), comparing aerobic exercise and dietary advice versus standard of care (exercise and dietary advice received as part of national health promotion). The reason for the choice of aerobic exercise and dietary advice is the impact of these interventions on indirect outcomes which may translate to clinical benefit. The outcomes in such trials should be mortality, health-related quality of life, decompensated liver cirrhosis, liver transplantation, and resource use measures including costs of intervention and decreased healthcare use after a minimum follow-up of eight years, to find meaningful differences in the clinically important outcomes

The reliability and validity of three non-radiological measures of thoracic kyphosis and their relations to the standing radiological Cobb angle

UnlabelledHyperkyphosis is implicated in a mounting list of negative outcomes, including higher mortality. Hyperkyphosis research is hindered due to difficulties inherent in its measurement. By showing that three clinical measures of kyphosis are suitable for use in large scale, longitudinal, hyperkyphosis studies, we will facilitate much needed research in this field.IntroductionThe objective of this study is to describe the reliability of three non-radiological kyphosis measures (Debrunner kyphosis angle, flexicurve kyphosis index, and flexicurve kyphosis angle) and their validity compared to the Cobb angle and to approximate a Cobb angle from non-radiological kyphosis measures.MethodsWe analyzed data from 113 participants aged ≥ 60 years with kyphosis angle ≥ 40°. Cobb angle was measured on a standing lateral thoracolumbar radiograph using bounds at T4 and T12. Non-radiological measures of kyphosis were made three times by a single rater and a 4th time by a blinded second rater.ResultsIntra- and inter-rater reliabilities for non-radiological assessments were high (intra-class correlations of 0.96 to 0.98) and did not differ from each other. Pearson correlations, estimating validity, ranged from 0.62 to 0.69 and did not differ. The Debrunner angle was close to the Cobb angle, with scaling factor of 1.067 and an offset of 5°. The Flexicurve kyphosis angle had to be scaled by 1.53 to obtain the equivalent Cobb angle. The scaling factor for the Flexicurve kyphosis index to Cobb angle was 315, with an offset of 5°. Compared to the measured Cobb angle, Cobb angles predicted using the non-radiological measures had similar magnitude errors (standard deviations of the differences ranging between 10.24 and 11.26).ConclusionsEach non-radiological measurement had similar reliability and validity. Low cost, ease of use, and robustness to variations in spine contour argue for the Flexicurve in longitudinal kyphosis assessments. The approximate conversion factors provided will permit translation of non-radiological measures to Cobb angles

A note on the Kutta condition in Glauert's solution of the thin aerofoil problem

Glauert's classical solution of the thin aerofoil problem (a coordinate transformation, and splitting the solution into a sum of a singular part and an assumed regular part written as a Fourier sine series) is usually presented in textbooks on aerodynamics without a great deal of attention being paid to the rôle of the Kutta condition. Sometimes the solution is merely stated, apparently satisfying the Kutta condition automatically. Quite often, however, it is misleadingly suggested that it is by the choice of a sine series that the Kutta condition is satisfied. It is shown here that if Glauert's approach is interpreted in the context of generalised functions, (1) the whole solution, i.e. both the singular part and any non-Kutta condition solution, can be written as a sine-series, and (2) it is really the coordinate transformation which compels the Kutta condition to be satisfied, as it enhances the edge singularities from integrable to non-integrable, and so sifts out solutions not normally representable by a Fourier series. Furthermore, the present method provides a very direct way to construct other, more singular solutions. A practical consequence is that (at least, in principle) in numerical solutions based on Glauert's method, more is needed for the Kutta condition than a sine series expansion