A philosophical context for methods to estimate origin-destination trip matrices using link counts.

This paper creates a philosophical structure for classifying methods which estimate origin-destination matrices using link counts. It is claimed that the motivation for doing so is to help real-life transport planners use matrix estimation methods effectively, especially in terms of trading-off observational data with prior subjective input (typically referred to as 'professional judgement'). The paper lists a number of applications that require such methods, differentiating between relatively simple and highly complex applications. It is argued that a sound philosophical perspective is particularly important for estimating trip matrices in the latter type of application. As a result of this argument, a classification structure is built up through using concepts of realism, subjectivity, empiricism and rationalism. Emphasis is put on the fact that, in typical transport planning applications, none of these concepts is useful in its extreme form. The structure is then used to make a review of methods for estimating trip matrices using link counts, covering material published over the past 30 years. The paper concludes by making recommendations, both philosophical and methodological, concerning both practical applications and further research

Parasite-mediated predation determines infection in a complex predator-prey-parasite system.

The interplay of host-parasite and predator-prey interactions is critical in ecological dynamics because both predators and parasites can regulate communities. But what is the prevalence of infected prey and predators when a parasite is transmitted through trophic interactions considering stochastic demographic changes? Here, we modelled and analysed a complex predator-prey-parasite system, where parasites are transmitted from prey to predators. We varied parasite virulence and infection probabilities to investigate how those evolutionary factors determine species' coexistence and populations' composition. Our results show that parasite species go extinct when the infection probabilities of either host are small and that success in infecting the final host is more critical for the survival of the parasite. While our stochastic simulations are consistent with deterministic predictions, stochasticity plays an important role in the border regions between coexistence and extinction. As expected, the proportion of infected individuals increases with the infection probabilities. Interestingly, the relative abundances of infected and uninfected individuals can have opposite orders in the intermediate and final host populations. This counterintuitive observation shows that the interplay of direct and indirect parasite effects is a common driver of the prevalence of infection in a complex system

Sea-level constraints on the amplitude and source distribution of Meltwater Pulse 1A.

During the last deglaciation, sea levels rose as ice sheets retreated. This climate transition was punctuated by periods of more intense melting; the largest and most rapid of these—Meltwater Pulse 1A—occurred about 14,500 years ago, with rates of sea-level rise reaching approximately 4 m per century1, 2, 3. Such rates of rise suggest ice-sheet instability, but the meltwater sources are poorly constrained, thus limiting our understanding of the causes and impacts of the event4, 5, 6, 7. In particular, geophysical modelling studies constrained by tropical sea-level records1, 8, 9 suggest an Antarctic contribution of more than seven metres, whereas most reconstructions10 from Antarctica indicate no substantial change in ice-sheet volume around the time of Meltwater Pulse 1A. Here we use a glacial isostatic adjustment model to reinterpret tropical sea-level reconstructions from Barbados2, the Sunda Shelf3 and Tahiti1. According to our results, global mean sea-level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A was between 8.6 and 14.6 m (95% probability). As for the melt partitioning, we find an allowable contribution from Antarctica of either 4.1 to 10.0 m or 0 to 6.9 m (95% probability), using two recent estimates11, 12 of the contribution from the North American ice sheets. We conclude that with current geologic constraints, the method applied here is unable to support or refute the possibility of a significant Antarctic contribution to Meltwater Pulse 1A

Dual function filtration and catalytic breakdown of organic pollutants in wastewater using ozonation with titania and alumina membranes

Water recycling via treatment from industrial and/or municipal waste sources is one of the key strategies for resolving water shortages worldwide. Polymer membranes are effective at improving the water quality essential for recycling, but depend on regular cleaning and replacement. Pure ceramic membranes can reduce the cleaning need and last significantly longer in the same applications while possessing the possibility of operating in more aggressive environments not suitable for polymers. In the current work, filtration using a tubular ceramic membrane (�-Al2O3 or TiO2) was combined with ozonation to remove organic compounds present in a secondary effluent to enhance key quality features of the water (colour and total organic carbon, TOC) for its potential reuse. ‘Bare’ commercial �-Al2O3 filters (pore size ∼0.58 �m) were tested as a microfiltration membrane and compared with the more advanced catalytically active TiO2 layer that was formed by the sol–gel method. The presence of anatase with a 4 nm pore size at the membrane surface was confirmed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and N2 adsorption. Filtration of the effluent over a 2 h period led to a reduction in flux to 45% and 60% of the initial values for the �-alumina and TiO2 membrane, respectively. However, a brief dose (2 min) of ozone at the start of the run resulted in reductions to only 70% of the initial flux for both membranes. It is likely that the oxide’s functional property facilitated the formation of hydroxyl (OH•) or other radicals on the membrane surface from ozone decomposition which targeted the breakdown of organic foulants thus inhibiting their deposition. Interestingly, the porous structure therefore acted in a synergistic, dual function mode to physically separate the particulates while also catalytically breaking down organic matter. The system also greatly improved the efficiency of membrane filtration for the reduction of colour, A254 (organics absorption at the wavelength of 254 nm) and TOC. The best performance came from combined ozonation (2 min ozonation time with an estimated applied ozone dose of 8 mg L−1) with the TiO2 membrane, which was able to reduce colour by 88%, A254 by 75% and TOC by 43%. It is clearly evident that a synergistic effect occurs with the process combination of ozonation and ceramic membrane filtration demonstrating the practical benefit of combining ceramic membrane filtration with conventional water ozonation

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

Association of tamoxifen use and reduced risk of contralateral breast cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

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Islands of linkage in an ocean of pervasive recombination reveals two-speed evolution of human cytomegalovirus genomes

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infects most of the population worldwide, persisting throughout the host's life in a latent state with periodic episodes of reactivation. While typically asymptomatic, HCMV can cause fatal disease among congenitally infected infants and immunocompromised patients. These clinical issues are compounded by the emergence of antiviral resistance and the absence of an effective vaccine, the development of which is likely complicated by the numerous immune evasins encoded by HCMV to counter the host's adaptive immune responses, a feature that facilitates frequent super-infections. Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of HCMV is essential for the development of effective new drugs and vaccines. By comparing viral genomes from uncultivated or low-passaged clinical samples of diverse origins, we observe evidence of frequent homologous recombination events, both recent and ancient, and no structure of HCMV genetic diversity at the whole-genome scale. Analysis of individual gene-scale loci reveals a striking dichotomy: while most of the genome is highly conserved, recombines essentially freely and has evolved under purifying selection, 21 genes display extreme diversity, structured into distinct genotypes that do not recombine with each other. Most of these hyper-variable genes encode glycoproteins involved in cell entry or escape of host immunity. Evidence that half of them have diverged through episodes of intense positive selection suggests that rapid evolution of hyper-variable loci is likely driven by interactions with host immunity. It appears that this process is enabled by recombination unlinking hyper-variable loci from strongly constrained neighboring sites. It is conceivable that viral mechanisms facilitating super-infection have evolved to promote recombination between diverged genotypes, allowing the virus to continuously diversify at key loci to escape immune detection, while maintaining a genome optimally adapted to its asymptomatic infectious lifecycle

Effects of antenatal betamethasone on preterm human and mouse ductus arteriosus: comparison with baboon data.

BackgroundAlthough studies involving preterm infants ≤34 weeks gestation report a decreased incidence of patent ductus arteriosus after antenatal betamethasone, studies involving younger gestation infants report conflicting results.MethodsWe used preterm baboons, mice, and humans (≤276/7 weeks gestation) to examine betamethasone's effects on ductus gene expression and constriction both in vitro and in vivo.ResultsIn mice, betamethasone increased the sensitivity of the premature ductus to the contractile effects of oxygen without altering the effects of other contractile or vasodilatory stimuli. Betamethasone's effects on oxygen sensitivity could be eliminated by inhibiting endogenous prostaglandin/nitric oxide signaling. In mice and baboons, betamethasone increased the expression of several developmentally regulated genes that mediate oxygen-induced constriction (K+ channels) and inhibit vasodilator signaling (phosphodiesterases). In human infants, betamethasone increased the rate of ductus constriction at all gestational ages. However, in infants born ≤256/7 weeks gestation, betamethasone's contractile effects were only apparent when prostaglandin signaling was inhibited, whereas at 26-27 weeks gestation, betamethasone's contractile effects were apparent even in the absence of prostaglandin inhibitors.ConclusionsWe speculate that betamethasone's contractile effects may be mediated through genes that are developmentally regulated. This could explain why betamethasone's effects vary according to the infant's developmental age at birth