Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures

Is there a causal relationship between cosmic noise absorption and PMSE?

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.We report on the first Southern Hemisphere comparison between polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) and cosmic noise absorption (CNA). Observations were obtained during the austral summer of 2003–2004 from a 55 MHz MST radar, a 38.2 MHz imaging riometer and a 30 MHz standard riometer all co-located at Davis, Antarctica (68.6°S). Case study PMSE events suggest that CNA plays a role in the intensification of established dayside PMSE possibly linked with soft electron precipitation from the polar cusp, and indeed with a similar effect and moreover with the creation of night-side PMSE connected with hard auroral electron precipitation. Although Pearson correlation coefficients are not that high (i.e., 0.423), Spearman rank correlation coefficients of 0.315, with 123 degrees of freedom well above the 99% confidence limits, established that a weak correlation between CNA and PMSE intensity exists. We use this result to discuss two unexplained properties of PMSE: (i) diurnal minimum near ∼15–21 UT; and (ii) non-linear intensity variation as a function of latitude. Surprisingly, this study presents only the second analysis of this kind using co-located instruments.Ray J. Morris, Michael B. Terkildsen, David A. Holdsworth, Mike R. Hyd

An interhemispheric comparison of GPS phase scintillation with auroral emission observed at South Pole and from DMSP satellite

The global positioning system (GPS) phase scintillation caused by high-latitude ionospheric irregularities during an intense high-speed stream (HSS) of the solar wind from April 29 to May 5, 2011, was observed using arrays of GPS ionospheric scintillation and total electron content monitors in the Arctic and Antarctica. The one-minute phase-scintillation index derived from the data sampled at 50 Hz was complemented by a proxy index (delta phase rate) obtained from 1-Hz GPS data. The scintillation occurrence coincided with the aurora borealis and aurora australis observed by an all-sky imager at the South Pole, and by special sensor ultraviolet scanning imagers on board satellites of the Defense Meteorological Satellites Program. The South Pole (SP) station is approximately conjugate with two Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network stations on Baffin Island, Canada, which provided the opportunity to study magnetic conjugacy of scintillation with support of riometers and magnetometers. The GPS ionospheric pierce points were mapped at their actual or conjugate locations, along with the auroral emission over the South Pole, assuming an altitude of 120 km. As the aurora brightened and/or drifted across the field of view of the all-sky imager, sequences of scintillation events were observed that indicated conjugate auroras as a locator of simultaneous or delayed bipolar scintillation events. In spite of the greater scintillation intensity in the auroral oval, where phase scintillation sometimes exceeded 1 radian during the auroral break-up and substorms, the percentage occurrence of moderate scintillation was highest in the cusp. Interhemispheric comparisons of bipolar scintillation maps show that the scintillation occurrence is significantly higher in the southern cusp and polar cap

Application usability levels: a framework for tracking project product progress

The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework and publicizing AULs to help the community quantify the progress of successful applications, metrics, and validation efforts. This framework will also aid the scientific community by supplying the type of information needed to build off of previously published work and publicizing the applications and requirements needed by the user communities. In this paper, we define the AUL framework, outline the milestones required for progression to higher AULs, and provide example projects utilizing the AUL framework. This work has been completed as part of the activities of the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment