Repeated summer drought and re-watering during the first growing year of oak (Quercus petraea) delay autumn senescence and bud burst in the following spring

Climate change predicts harsher summer droughts for mid-latitudes in Europe. To enhance our understanding of the putative impacts on forest regeneration, we studied the response of oak seedlings (Quercus petraea) to water deficit. Potted seedlings originating from three locally sourced provenances were subjected to two successive drought periods during the first growing season each followed by a plentiful re watering. Here, we describe survival and phenological responses after the second drought treatment, applying general linear mixed modeling. From the 441 drought treated seedlings 189 subsisted with higher chances of survival among smaller plants and among single plants per pot compared to doubles. Remarkably, survival was independent of the provenance, although relatively more plants had died off in two provenances compared to the third one with mean plant height being higher in one provenance and standard deviation of plant height being higher in the other. Timing of leaf senescence was clearly delayed after the severe drought treatment followed by re-watering, with two seedlings per pot showing a lesser retardation compared to single plants. This delay can be interpreted as a compensation time in which plants recover before entering the subsequent developmental process of leaf senescence, although it renders seedlings more vulnerable to early autumn frosts because of the delayed hardening of the shoots. Onset of bud flush in the subsequent spring still showed a significant but small delay in the drought treated group, independent of the number of seedlings per pot, and can be considered as an after effect of the delayed senescence. In both phenological models significant differences among the three provenances were detected independent from the treatment. The only provenance that is believed to be local of origin, displayed the earliest leaf senescence and the latest flushing, suggesting an adaptation to the local maritime climate. This provenance also displayed the highest standard deviation of plant height, which can be interpreted as an adaptation to variable and unpredictable weather conditions, favoring smaller plants in drought-prone summers and higher plants in more normal growing seasons

A question of origin: Where and how to collect seed for ecological restoration

Native plant species are routinely planted or sown in ecological restoration projects, but successful establishment and survival depend on where and how seeds are collected. Research suggests that it is important to use locally adapted seeds. Local populations often show a home-site advantage and non-local genotypes may be maladapted to local environmental conditions. Furthermore, intraspecific hybridisation of local and non-local genotypes may have a negative impact on the genetic structure of local populations via mechanisms such as outbreeding depression. Many species show a strong small-scale genetic differentiation between different habitats so that matching habitats of the restoration and donor site can be more important than minimizing geographical separation. It is a challenge to identify appropriate seed sources because strong small-scale population differentiation makes it difficult to delineate geographically defined seed zones to which seed exchange should be limited. Moreover, it is important to consider the genetic diversity of introduced material because it may be crucial to avoid genetic bottlenecks, inbreeding depression and poor establishment of plant populations. Repeated propagation in stock, which is often required to obtain a sufficient amount of seeds, can further reduce genetic diversity and may select for particular genotypes. Negative impacts of improper seed choice for nursery planting stock may become detectable only after many years, especially in long-lived and slow growing plants. Although scientific information on many species remains limited, the increasing demand for translocation of seed means that mandatory regulations are necessary. Guidelines should prescribe a specification of seed provenance, a record of genetic diversity of wild collections and rules for subsequent processing such as direct transfer and propagation of stock or seed orchards. We use a literature review to evaluate current legislation and to develop recommendations for herbaceous and woody species

Transgenerational effects in asexually reproduced offspring of Populus

The response of trees to a changing climate can be affected by transgenerational phenotypic plasticity, i.e. phenotypic variation that is conserved and transferred to the offspring. Transgenerational plasticity that is influenced by epigenetics (heritable changes in gene function that do not result from changes in DNA sequence) during both sexual and asexual reproduction are of major relevance for adaptation of plants to climate change. To understand the transgenerational effects on the responses of vegetatively propagated poplar (Populus deltoides and P. trichocarpa) ramets (cuttings) to a changing environment, we tested whether the temperature and photoperiod experienced by the mother trees (genets) persistently affects the phenology of the cuttings grown in a common environment. We weekly monitored the bud phenology of the cuttings collected from the parent trees that have been growing across Europe along a >2100 km latitudinal gradient for at least 18 years. In addition, we asked whether there was variation in DNA methylation as measured by Methylation Sensitive Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (MSAPs) in the clones due to the different environmental conditions experienced by the parent trees. Our results indicate a transgenerational effect on bud phenology in the asexually reproduced offspring (vegetative cuttings). The temperatures experienced by the parent tree clones (from different geographic regions) altered the bud flush of the cuttings in the common garden. However, no significant epigenetic variation was detected in the cuttings of the parent trees within single genotypes growing under different climates. In sum, our results show that trees have the potential to respond to rapid climate change but the mechanism behind these changes needs to be further investigated by more powerful molecular methods like whole-genome bisulphite sequencing techniques

Taxon-independent and taxon-dependent responses to drought in seedlings from Quercus robur L., Q. petraea (Matt.) Liebl. and their morphological intermediates

The increasing severity and frequency of summer droughts at mid-latitudes in Europe may impact forest regeneration. We investigated whether the sympatric species Quercus robur L., Q. petraea (Matt.) Liebl., and their morphological intermediates respond differentially to water deficit. Acorns were sourced from a naturally mixed population. Half of the potted seedlings were subjected to two successive drought periods during the first growing season, each followed by a plentiful re-watering. The surviving drought-exposed seedlings subsisted independent of the taxon of the mother tree. The phenological responses were also taxon-independent. However, drought-exposed plants showed a retarded height growth in the year following the treatment which was taxon-dependent. Offspring from Q. robur and from trees with leaves resembling Q. robur leaves and infructescences resembling Q. petraea infructescences showed a stronger decrease in height growth compared to the offspring from Q. petraea and from trees with leaves resembling Q. petraea leaves and infructescences resembling Q. robur infructescences. Diameter growth in the year following the drought treatment showed a weak taxon-dependent response. Together, our results may suggest that the composition of oak species and their hybrids in natural oak forests could be altered upon prolonged periods of precipitation deficit

Counter-intuitive response to water limitation in a southern European provenance of Frangula alnus Mill. in a common garden experiment

Climate change will intensify drought periods during the growing season in Western Europe. We mimicked this prediction by withholding water in summer from young rooted cuttings of Frangula alnus Mill., a common shrub species, originating from different latitudes in Europe (Italy, Belgium and Sweden) and growing in a common garden environment in Belgium. We followed the responses to the drought up to two years after the treatment. Counter-intuitively, the Italian provenance displayed earlier symptoms and stronger effects of water limitation than the other two provenances. A putative higher transpiration in this provenance could be suggested based on a relative larger shoot growth, larger leaves and a higher stomatal density. After the post-drought re-watering, the droughted plants of the Italian provenance entered leaf senescence later than the control plants, likely as a compensation mechanism for the lost growing time. Bud burst in the first year after the drought treatment and leaf senescence in the next autumn were both advanced in the drought treated group when compared with the control plants. Bud burst in the second year after the drought treatment did not display any differentiation anymore between control and drought treated plants. Growth traits also displayed legacies of the water limitation. For example, the drought treated plants showed a lower number of reshoots upon pruning in the year after the drought treatment. Our results suggest that assisted migration from southern Europe to western Europe as a climate change adaptation strategy might not always follow the expected patterns

Stimulation, Reduction and Compensation Growth, and Variable Phenological Responses to Spring and/or Summer–Autumn Warming in Corylus Taxa and Cornus sanguinea L.

Understanding species-specific responses to climate change allows a better assessment of the possible impact of global warming on forest growth. We studied the responses of the shrub species Corylus avellana L., Corylus maxima Mill. and intermediate forms, together stated as the Corylus taxa, and Cornus sanguinea L. upon periodically elevated temperatures in spring and/or in summer–autumn. Experiments were performed in a common garden, with Belgian and Pyrenean provenances for Corylus avellana and Cornus sanguinea. In the Corylus taxa, a warmer spring resulted in a reduction in height and diameter growth. Remarkably, the reduced diameter increment was restored with full compensation in the following year. The height increment for Cornus sanguinea was larger upon a warmer summer–autumn, concurring with a later leaf senescence. Our results suggest that Corylus is more sensitive to spring warming, influencing growth negatively, whereas Cornus is more sensitive to summer–autumn warming, influencing height growth positively. These deviating responses can be explained, at least partly, by their diverging ecological niches, with the Corylus taxa being more shade-tolerant compared to Cornus sanguinea. The warm spring conditions advanced bud burst in all studied taxa, whereas the warm summer–autumn advanced leaf senescence but prolonged its duration in the Corylus taxa, as well as delayed this phenophase in Cornus sanguinea. Little to no after-effects of the temperature treatments were detected. Although Corylus avellana and Cornus sanguinea plants originated from similar origins, their growth and phenological responses in the common garden diverged, with Corylus being more stable and Cornus displaying more variation between the Belgian and Pyrenean provenances.Publishe

Development and evaluation of uncertainty quantifying machine learning models to predict piperacillin plasma concentrations in critically ill patients

Background: Beta-lactam antimicrobial concentrations are frequently suboptimal in critically ill patients. Population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) modeling is the golden standard to predict drug concentrations. However, currently available PopPK models often lack predictive accuracy, making them less suited to guide dosing regimen adaptations. Furthermore, many currently developed models for clinical applications often lack uncertainty quantification. We, therefore, aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models for the prediction of piperacillin plasma concentrations while also providing uncertainty quantification with the aim of clinical practice. Methods: Blood samples for piperacillin analysis were prospectively collected from critically ill patients receiving continuous infusion of piperacillin/tazobactam. Interpretable ML models for the prediction of piperacillin concentrations were designed using CatBoost and Gaussian processes. Distribution-based Uncertainty Quantification was added to the CatBoost model using a proposed Quantile Ensemble method, useable for any model optimizing a quantile function. These models are subsequently evaluated using the distribution coverage error, a proposed interpretable uncertainty quantification calibration metric. Development and internal evaluation of the ML models were performed on the Ghent University Hospital database (752 piperacillin concentrations from 282 patients). Ensuing, ML models were compared with a published PopPK model on a database from the University Medical Centre of Groningen where a different dosing regimen is used (46 piperacillin concentrations from 15 patients.). Results: The best performing model was the Catboost model with an RMSE and R-2 of 31.94-0.64 and 33.53-0.60 for internal evaluation with and without previous concentration. Furthermore, the results prove the added value of the proposed Quantile Ensemble model in providing clinically useful individualized uncertainty predictions and show the limits of homoscedastic methods like Gaussian Processes in clinical applications. Conclusions: Our results show that ML models can consistently estimate piperacillin concentrations with acceptable and high predictive accuracy when identical dosing regimens as in the training data are used while providing highly relevant uncertainty predictions. However, generalization capabilities to other dosing schemes are limited. Notwithstanding, incorporating ML models in therapeutic drug monitoring programs seems definitely promising and the current work provides a basis for validating the model in clinical practice

3D high-resolution anorectal manometry in patients with perianal fistulas: comparison with 3D-anal ultrasound.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.BACKGROUND: Perianal fistula surgery can damage the anal sphincters which may cause faecal incontinence. By measuring regional pressures, 3D-HRAM potentially provides better guidance for surgical strategy in patients with perianal fistulas. The aim was to measure regional anal pressures with 3D-HRAM and to compare these with 3D-EUS findings in patients with perianal fistulas. METHODS: Consecutive patients with active perianal fistulas who underwent both 3D-EUS and 3D-HRAM at a clinic specialised in proctology were included. A group of 30 patients without fistulas served as controls. Data regarding demographics, complaints, previous perianal surgical procedures and obstetric history were collected. The mean and regional anal pressures were measured with 3D-HRAM. Fistula tract areas detected with 3D-EUS were analysed with 3D-HRAM by visual coding and the regional pressures of the corresponding and surrounding area of the fistula tract areas were measured. The study was granted by the VUmc Medical Ethical Committee. RESULTS: Forty patients (21 males, mean age 47) were included. Four patients had a primary fistula, 19 were previously treated with a seton/abscess drainage and 17 had a recurrence after previously performed fistula surgery. On 3D-HRAM, 24 (60%) fistula tract areas were good and 8 (20%) moderately visible. All but 7 (18%) patients had normal mean resting pressures. The mean resting pressure of the fistula tract area was significantly lower compared to the surrounding area (47 vs. 76 mmHg; p < 0.0001). Only 2 (5%) patients had a regional mean resting pressure < 10 mmHg of the fistula tract area. Using a Δ mean resting pressure ≥ 30 mmHg difference between fistula tract area and non-fistula tract area as alternative cut-off, 21 (53%) patients were identified. In 6 patients 3D-HRAM was repeated after surgery: a local pressure drop was detected in one patient after fistulotomy with increased complaints of faecal incontinence. CONCLUSIONS: Profound local anal pressure drops are found in the fistula tract areas in patients normal mean resting pressures. Fistulotomy may affect local sphincter pressure. This might influence surgical decision making in future