The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect under correlated demand and moving average forecasts

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordWe quantify the bullwhip effect (which measures how the variance of replenishment orders is amplified as the orders move up the supply chain) when both random demands and random lead times are estimated using the industrially popular moving average forecasting method. We assume that the lead times constitute a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables and the correlated demands are described by a first-order autoregressive process. We obtain an expression that reveals the impact of demand and lead time forecasting on the bullwhip effect. We draw a number of conclusions on the bullwhip behaviour with respect to the demand auto-correlation and the number of past lead times and demands used in the forecasts. We find maxima and minima in the bullwhip measure as a function of the demand auto-correlation.National Science Centr

AKT activity orchestrates marginal zone B cell development in mice and humans.

The signals controlling marginal zone (MZ) and follicular (FO) B cell development remain incompletely understood. Here, we show that AKT orchestrates MZ B cell formation in mice and humans. Genetic models that increase AKT signaling in B cells or abolish its impact on FoxO transcription factors highlight the AKT-FoxO axis as an on-off switch for MZ B cell formation in mice. In humans, splenic immunoglobulin (Ig) D <sup>+</sup> CD27 <sup>+</sup> B cells, proposed as an MZ B cell equivalent, display higher AKT signaling than naive IgD <sup>+</sup> CD27 <sup>-</sup> and memory IgD <sup>-</sup> CD27 <sup>+</sup> B cells and develop in an AKT-dependent manner from their precursors in vitro, underlining the conservation of this developmental pathway. Consistently, CD148 is identified as a receptor indicative of the level of AKT signaling in B cells, expressed at a higher level in MZ B cells than FO B cells in mice as well as humans

Effect of training and sudden detraining on the patellar tendon and its enthesis in rats

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different conditions may alter tendon characteristics. Clinical evidence suggests that tendon injuries are more frequent in athletes that change type, intensity and duration of training. Aim of the study was the assessment of training and especially detraining on the patellar tendon (PT) and its enthesis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>27 male adult Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into 3 groups: 20 rats were trained on a treadmill for 10 weeks. Of these, 10 rats were euthanized immediately after training (trained group), and 10 were caged without exercise for 4 weeks before being euthanized (de-trained group). The remaining 7 rats were used as controls (untrained rats). PT insertion, structure (collagen fiber organization and proteoglycan, PG, content), PT thickness, enthesis area, and subchondral bone volume at the enthesis were measured by histomorphometry and microtomography.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both PG content and collagen fiber organization were significantly lower in untrained and detrained animals than in trained ones (<it>p </it>< 0.05 and <it>p </it>< 0.0001). In the detrained group, fiber organization and PG content were worse than that of the untrained groups and the untrained group showed a significantly higher score than the detrained group (<it>p </it>< 0.05). In the trained group, the PT was significantly thicker than in untrained group (<it>p </it>< 0.05). No significant differences in the enthesis area and subchondral bone volume among the three groups were seen.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Moderate exercise exerts a protective effect on the PT structure while sudden discontinuation of physical activity has a negative effect on tendons. The present results suggest that after a period of sudden de-training (such as after an injury) physical activity should be restarted with caution and with appropriate rehabilitation programs.</p

Surfactant phosphatidylcholine half-life and pool size measurements in premature baboons developing bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Because minimal information is available about surfactant metabolism in bronchopulmonary dysplasia, we measured half-lives and pool sizes of surfactant phosphatidylcholine in very preterm baboons recovering from respiratory distress syndrome and developing bronchopulmonary dysplasia, using stable isotopes, radioactive isotopes, and direct pool size measurements. Eight ventilated premature baboons received (2)H-DPPC (dipalmitoyl phosphatidylcholine) on d 5 of life, and radioactive (14)C-DPPC with a treatment dose of surfactant on d 8. After 14 d, lung pool sizes of saturated phosphatidylcholine were measured. Half-life of (2)H-DPPC (d 5) in tracheal aspirates was 28 +/- 4 h (mean +/- SEM). Half-life of radioactive DPPC (d 8) was 35 +/- 4 h. Saturated phosphatidylcholine pool size measured with stable isotopes on d 5 was 129 +/- 14 micro mol/kg, and 123 +/- 11 micro mol/kg on d 14 at autopsy. Half-lives were comparable to those obtained at d 0 and d 6 in our previous baboon studies. We conclude that surfactant metabolism does not change during the early development of bronchopulmonary dysplasia, more specifically, the metabolism of exogenous surfactant on d 8 is similar to that on the day of birth. Surfactant pool size is low at birth, increases after surfactant therapy, and is kept constant during the first 2 wk of life by endogenous surfactant synthesis. Measurements with stable isotopes are comparable to measurements with radioactive tracers and measurements at autopsy

Inhibitors of inflammation and endogenous surfactant pool size as modulators of lung injury with initiation of ventilation in preterm sheep

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increased pro-inflammatory cytokines in tracheal aspirates correlate with the development of BPD in preterm infants. Ventilation of preterm lambs increases pro-inflammatory cytokines and causes lung inflammation.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>We tested the hypothesis that selective inhibitors of pro-inflammatory signaling would decrease lung inflammation induced by ventilation in preterm newborn lambs. We also examined if the variability in injury response was explained by variations in the endogenous surfactant pool size.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Date-mated preterm lambs (n = 28) were operatively delivered and mechanically ventilated to cause lung injury (tidal volume escalation to 15 mL/kg by 15 min at age). The lambs then were ventilated with 8 mL/kg tidal volume for 1 h 45 min. Groups of animals randomly received specific inhibitors for IL-8, IL-1, or NF-κB. Unventilated lambs (n = 7) were the controls. Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and lung samples were used to quantify inflammation. Saturated phosphatidylcholine (Sat PC) was measured in BALF fluid and the data were stratified based on a level of 5 μmol/kg (~8 mg/kg surfactant).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The inhibitors did not decrease the cytokine levels or inflammatory response. The inflammation increased as Sat PC pool size in BALF decreased. Ventilated lambs with a Sat PC level > 5 μmol/kg had significantly decreased markers of injury and lung inflammation compared with those lambs with < 5 μmol/kg.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Lung injury caused by high tidal volumes at birth were decreased when endogenous surfactant pool sizes were larger. Attempts to decrease inflammation by blocking IL-8, IL-1 or NF-κB were unsuccessful.</p

Mechanical Strain Stabilizes Reconstituted Collagen Fibrils against Enzymatic Degradation by Mammalian Collagenase Matrix Metalloproteinase 8 (MMP-8)

Collagen, a triple-helical, self-organizing protein, is the predominant structural protein in mammals. It is found in bone, ligament, tendon, cartilage, intervertebral disc, skin, blood vessel, and cornea. We have recently postulated that fibrillar collagens (and their complementary enzymes) comprise the basis of a smart structural system which appears to support the retention of molecules in fibrils which are under tensile mechanical strain. The theory suggests that the mechanisms which drive the preferential accumulation of collagen in loaded tissue operate at the molecular level and are not solely cell-driven. The concept reduces control of matrix morphology to an interaction between molecules and the most relevant, physical, and persistent signal: mechanical strain.The investigation was carried out in an environmentally-controlled microbioreactor in which reconstituted type I collagen micronetworks were gently strained between micropipettes. The strained micronetworks were exposed to active matrix metalloproteinase 8 (MMP-8) and relative degradation rates for loaded and unloaded fibrils were tracked simultaneously using label-free differential interference contrast (DIC) imaging. It was found that applied tensile mechanical strain significantly increased degradation time of loaded fibrils compared to unloaded, paired controls. In many cases, strained fibrils were detectable long after unstrained fibrils were degraded.In this investigation we demonstrate for the first time that applied mechanical strain preferentially preserves collagen fibrils in the presence of a physiologically-important mammalian enzyme: MMP-8. These results have the potential to contribute to our understanding of many collagen matrix phenomena including development, adaptation, remodeling and disease. Additionally, tissue engineering could benefit from the ability to sculpt desired structures from physiologically compatible and mutable collagen

Gene Expression Profile of Neuronal Progenitor Cells Derived from hESCs: Activation of Chromosome 11p15.5 and Comparison to Human Dopaminergic Neurons

BACKGROUND: We initiated differentiation of human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) into dopamine neurons, obtained a purified population of neuronal precursor cells by cell sorting, and determined patterns of gene transcription. METHODOLOGY: Dopaminergic differentiation of hESCs was initiated by culturing hESCs with a feeder layer of PA6 cells. Differentiating cells were then sorted to obtain a pure population of PSA-NCAM-expressing neuronal precursors, which were then analyzed for gene expression using Massive Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS). Individual genes as well as regions of the genome which were activated were determined. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A number of genes known to be involved in the specification of dopaminergic neurons, including MSX1, CDKN1C, Pitx1 and Pitx2, as well as several novel genes not previously associated with dopaminergic differentiation, were expressed. Notably, we found that a specific region of the genome located on chromosome 11p15.5 was highly activated. This region contains several genes which have previously been associated with the function of dopaminergic neurons, including the gene for tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), the rate-limiting enzyme in catecholamine biosynthesis, IGF2, and CDKN1C, which cooperates with Nurr1 in directing the differentiation of dopaminergic neurons. Other genes in this region not previously recognized as being involved in the functions of dopaminergic neurons were also activated, including H19, TSSC4, and HBG2. IGF2 and CDKN1C were also found to be highly expressed in mature human TH-positive dopamine neurons isolated from human brain samples by laser capture. CONCLUSIONS: The present data suggest that the H19-IGF2 imprinting region on chromosome 11p15.5 is involved in the process through which undifferentiated cells are specified to become neuronal precursors and/or dopaminergic neurons

Predictors of opioid misuse in patients with chronic pain: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Opioid misuse can complicate chronic pain management, and the non-medical use of opioids is a growing public health problem. The incidence and risk factors for opioid misuse in patients with chronic pain, however, have not been well characterized. We conducted a prospective cohort study to determine the one-year incidence and predictors of opioid misuse among patients enrolled in a chronic pain disease management program within an academic internal medicine practice. METHODS: One-hundred and ninety-six opioid-treated patients with chronic, non-cancer pain of at least three months duration were monitored for opioid misuse at pre-defined intervals. Opioid misuse was defined as: 1. Negative urine toxicological screen (UTS) for prescribed opioids; 2. UTS positive for opioids or controlled substances not prescribed by our practice; 3. Evidence of procurement of opioids from multiple providers; 4. Diversion of opioids; 5. Prescription forgery; or 6. Stimulants (cocaine or amphetamines) on UTS. RESULTS: The mean patient age was 52 years, 55% were male, and 75% were white. Sixty-two of 196 (32%) patients committed opioid misuse. Detection of cocaine or amphetamines on UTS was the most common form of misuse (40.3% of misusers). In bivariate analysis, misusers were more likely than non-misusers to be younger (48 years vs 54 years, p < 0.001), male (59.6% vs. 38%; p = 0.023), have past alcohol abuse (44% vs 23%; p = 0.004), past cocaine abuse (68% vs 21%; p < 0.001), or have a previous drug or DUI conviction (40% vs 11%; p < 0.001%). In multivariate analyses, age, past cocaine abuse (OR, 4.3), drug or DUI conviction (OR, 2.6), and a past alcohol abuse (OR, 2.6) persisted as predictors of misuse. Race, income, education, depression score, disability score, pain score, and literacy were not associated with misuse. No relationship between pain scores and misuse emerged. CONCLUSION: Opioid misuse occurred frequently in chronic pain patients in a pain management program within an academic primary care practice. Patients with a history of alcohol or cocaine abuse and alcohol or drug related convictions should be carefully evaluated and followed for signs of misuse if opioids are prescribed. Structured monitoring for opioid misuse can potentially ensure the appropriate use of opioids in chronic pain management and mitigate adverse public health effects of diversion