Opening the black box of artificial intelligence for clinical decision support: A study predicting stroke outcome

State-of-the-art machine learning (ML) artificial intelligence methods are increasingly leveraged in clinical predictive modeling to provide clinical decision support systems to physicians. Modern ML approaches such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and tree boosting often perform better than more traditional methods like logistic regression. On the other hand, these modern methods yield a limited understanding of the resulting predictions. However, in the medical domain, understanding of applied models is essential, in particular, when informing clinical decision support. Thus, in recent years, interpretability methods for modern ML methods have emerged to potentially allow explainable predictions paired with high performance. To our knowledge, we present in this work the first explainability comparison of two modern ML methods, tree boosting and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), to traditional logistic regression methods using a stroke outcome prediction paradigm. Here, we used clinical features to predict a dichotomized 90 days post-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score. For interpretability, we evaluated clinical features' importance with regard to predictions using deep Taylor decomposition for MLP, Shapley values for tree boosting and model coefficients for logistic regression. With regard to performance as measured by Area under the Curve (AUC) values on the test dataset, all models performed comparably: Logistic regression AUCs were 0.83, 0.83, 0.81 for three different regularization schemes; tree boosting AUC was 0.81; MLP AUC was 0.83. Importantly, the interpretability analysis demonstrated consistent results across models by rating age and stroke severity consecutively amongst the most important predictive features. For less important features, some differences were observed between the methods. Our analysis suggests that modern machine learning methods can provide explainability which is compatible with domain knowledge interpretation and traditional method rankings. Future work should focus on replication of these findings in other datasets and further testing of different explainability methods

Multimodal Fusion Strategies for Outcome Prediction in Stroke

Data driven methods are increasingly being adopted in the medical domain for clinical predictive modeling. Prediction of stroke outcome using machine learning could provide a decision support system for physicians to assist them in patient-oriented diagnosis and treatment. While patient-specific clinical parameters play an important role in outcome prediction, a multimodal fusion approach that integrates neuroimaging with clinical data has the potential to improve accuracy. This paper addresses two research questions: (a) does multimodal fusion aid in the prediction of stroke outcome, and (b) what fusion strategy is more suitable for the task at hand. The baselines for our experimental work are two unimodal neural architectures: a 3D Convolutional Neural Network for processing neuroimaging data, and a Multilayer Perceptron for processing clinical data. Using these unimodal architectures as building blocks we propose two feature-level multimodal fusion strategies: 1) extracted features , where the unimodal architectures are trained separately and then fused, and 2) end-to-end, where the unimodal architectures are trained together. We show that integration of neuroimaging information with clinical metadata can potentially improve stroke outcome prediction. Additionally, experimental results indicate that the end-to-end fusion approach proves to be more robust

A precision medicine framework for personalized simulation of hemodynamics in cerebrovascular disease

Background: Cerebrovascular disease, in particular stroke, is a major public health challenge. An important biomarker is cerebral hemodynamics. To measure and quantify cerebral hemodynamics, however, only invasive, potentially harmful or time-to-treatment prolonging methods are available. Results: We present a simulation-based approach which allows calculation of cerebral hemodynamics based on the patient-individual vessel configuration derived from structural vessel imaging. For this, we implemented a framework allowing segmentation and annotation of brain vessels from structural imaging followed by 0-dimensional lumped simulation modeling of cerebral hemodynamics. For annotation, a 3D-graphical user interface was implemented. For 0D-simulation, we used a modified nodal analysis, which was adapted for easy implementation by code. The simulation enables identification of areas vulnerable to stroke and simulation of changes due to different systemic blood pressures. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was implemented allowing the live simulation of changes to simulate procedures and disease progression. Beyond presentation of the framework, we demonstrated in an exploratory analysis in 67 patients that the simulation has a high specificity and low-to-moderate sensitivity to detect perfusion changes in classic perfusion imaging. Conclusions: The presented precision medicine approach using novel biomarkers has the potential to make the application of harmful and complex perfusion methods obsolete

Outcome prediction in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a comparison of machine learning methods and established clinico-radiological scores

Reliable prediction of outcomes of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) based on factors available at patient admission may support responsible allocation of resources as well as treatment decisions. Radiographic and clinical scoring systems may help clinicians estimate disease severity, but their predictive value is limited, especially in devising treatment strategies. In this study, we aimed to examine whether a machine learning (ML) approach using variables available on admission may improve outcome prediction in aSAH compared to established scoring systems. Combined clinical and radiographic features as well as standard scores (Hunt & Hess, WFNS, BNI, Fisher, and VASOGRADE) available on patient admission were analyzed using a consecutive single-center database of patients that presented with aSAH (n = 388). Different ML models (seven algorithms including three types of traditional generalized linear models, as well as a tree bosting algorithm, a support vector machine classifier (SVMC), a Naive Bayes (NB) classifier, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural net) were trained for single features, scores, and combined features with a random split into training and test sets (4:1 ratio), ten-fold cross-validation, and 50 shuffles. For combined features, feature importance was calculated. There was no difference in performance between traditional and other ML applications using traditional clinico-radiographic features. Also, no relevant difference was identified between a combined set of clinico-radiological features available on admission (highest AUC 0.78, tree boosting) and the best performing clinical score GCS (highest AUC 0.76, tree boosting). GCS and age were the most important variables for the feature combination. In this cohort of patients with aSAH, the performance of functional outcome prediction by machine learning techniques was comparable to traditional methods and established clinical scores. Future work is necessary to examine input variables other than traditional clinico-radiographic features and to evaluate whether a higher performance for outcome prediction in aSAH can be achieved

A novel approach for assessing hypoperfusion in stroke using spatial independent component analysis of resting‐state fMRI

Individualized treatment of acute stroke depends on the timely detection of ischemia and potentially salvageable tissue in the brain. Using functional MRI (fMRI), it is possible to characterize cerebral blood flow from blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signals without the administration of exogenous contrast agents. In this study, we applied spatial independent component analysis to resting-state fMRI data of 37 stroke patients scanned within 24 hr of symptom onset, 17 of whom received follow-up scans the next day. Our analysis revealed "Hypoperfusion spatially-Independent Components" (HICs) whose spatial patterns of BOLD signal resembled regions of delayed perfusion depicted by dynamic susceptibility contrast MRI. These HICs were detected even in the presence of excessive patient motion, and disappeared following successful tissue reperfusion. The unique spatial and temporal features of HICs allowed them to be distinguished with high accuracy from other components in a user-independent manner (area under the curve = 0.93, balanced accuracy = 0.90, sensitivity = 1.00, and specificity = 0.85). Our study therefore presents a new, noninvasive method for assessing blood flow in acute stroke that minimizes interpretative subjectivity and is robust to severe patient motion

A U-Net Deep Learning Framework for High Performance Vessel Segmentation in Patients With Cerebrovascular Disease

Brain vessel status is a promising biomarker for better prevention and treatment in cerebrovascular disease. However, classic rule-based vessel segmentation algorithms need to be hand-crafted and are insufficiently validated. A specialized deep learning method-the U-net -is a promising alternative. Using labeled data from 66 patients with cerebrovascular disease, the U-net framework was optimized and evaluated with three metrics: Dice coefficient, 95% Hausdorff distance (95HD) and average Hausdorff distance (AVD). The model performance was compared with the traditional segmentation method of graph-cuts. Training and reconstruction was performed using 2D patches. A full and a reduced architecture with less parameters were trained. We performed both quantitative and qualitative analyses. The U-net models yielded high performance for both the full and the reduced architecture: A Dice value of similar to 0.88, a 95HD of similar to 47 voxels and an AVD of similar to 0.4 voxels. The visual analysis revealed excellent performance in large vessels and sufficient performance in small vessels. Pathologies like cortical laminar necrosis and a rete mirabile led to limited segmentation performance in few patients. The U-net outperfomed the traditional graph-cuts method (Dice similar to 0.76, 95HD similar to 59, AVD similar to 1.97). Our work highly encourages the development of clinically applicable segmentation tools based on deep learning. Future works should focus on improved segmentation of small vessels and methodologies to deal with specific pathologies

A U-Net Deep Learning Framework for High Performance Vessel Segmentation in Paitents with Cerebrovascular Disease

Brain vessel status is a promising biomarker for better prevention and treatment in cerebrovascular disease. However, classic rule-based vessel segmentation algorithms need to be hand-crafted and are insufficiently validated. A specialized deep learning method—the U-net—is a promising alternative. Using labeled data from 66 patients with cerebrovascular disease, the U-net framework was optimized and evaluated with three metrics: Dice coefficient, 95% Hausdorff distance (95HD) and average Hausdorff distance (AVD). The model performance was compared with the traditional segmentation method of graph-cuts. Training and reconstruction was performed using 2D patches. A full and a reduced architecture with less parameters were trained. We performed both quantitative and qualitative analyses. The U-net models yielded high performance for both the full and the reduced architecture: A Dice value of ~0.88, a 95HD of ~47 voxels and an AVD of ~0.4 voxels. The visual analysis revealed excellent performance in large vessels and sufficient performance in small vessels. Pathologies like cortical laminar necrosis and a rete mirabile led to limited segmentation performance in few patients. The U-net outperfomed the traditional graph-cuts method (Dice ~0.76, 95HD ~59, AVD ~1.97). Our work highly encourages the development of clinically applicable segmentation tools based on deep learning. Future works should focus on improved segmentation of small vessels and methodologies to deal with specific pathologie

A U-Net Deep Learning Framework for High Performance Vessel Segmentation in Patients With Cerebrovascular Disease

Brain vessel status is a promising biomarker for better prevention and treatment in cerebrovascular disease. However, classic rule-based vessel segmentation algorithms need to be hand-crafted and are insufficiently validated. A specialized deep learning method—the U-net—is a promising alternative. Using labeled data from 66 patients with cerebrovascular disease, the U-net framework was optimized and evaluated with three metrics: Dice coefficient, 95% Hausdorff distance (95HD) and average Hausdorff distance (AVD). The model performance was compared with the traditional segmentation method of graph-cuts. Training and reconstruction was performed using 2D patches. A full and a reduced architecture with less parameters were trained. We performed both quantitative and qualitative analyses. The U-net models yielded high performance for both the full and the reduced architecture: A Dice value of ~0.88, a 95HD of ~47 voxels and an AVD of ~0.4 voxels. The visual analysis revealed excellent performance in large vessels and sufficient performance in small vessels. Pathologies like cortical laminar necrosis and a rete mirabile led to limited segmentation performance in few patients. The U-net outperfomed the traditional graph-cuts method (Dice ~0.76, 95HD ~59, AVD ~1.97). Our work highly encourages the development of clinically applicable segmentation tools based on deep learning. Future works should focus on improved segmentation of small vessels and methodologies to deal with specific pathologies