Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013: a country earmarked for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance. RESULTS All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of <Nu 1,500; HH located one to three hours walking distance to a health centre compared to being located closer to a health centre; a reported lack of knowledge as to what to do in event of LLINs being torn; and keeping LLINs in a box compared to keeping them hanging in the place of use. Factors associated with use of LLINs for purposes other than the intended use included: income group Nu 1,501-3,000 and HH located one to three hours walking distance from a health centre. CONCLUSIONS There was high coverage of LLINs in the study area with regular use of LLINs throughout the year. LLIN use for purposes other than malaria prevention was low. With high coverage and regular use of LLINs, and a zero prevalence of malaria infection found in historically high-risk communities during the peak malaria season, it appears Bhutan is on course to achieve malaria elimination.We acknowledge Queensland Infectious Disease Unit for providing funds to carry out this study

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data: a case study using ross river virus disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.</p

Modelling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 in human malaria to better understand malaria rapid diagnostic test performance

Background: Effective diagnosis of malaria is a major component of case management. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) based on Plasmodium falciparumhistidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are popular for diagnosis of this most virulent malaria infection. However, concerns have been raised about the longevity of the PfHRP2 antigenaemia following curative treatment in endemic regions. Methods. A model of PfHRP2 production and decay was developed to mimic the kinetics of PfHRP2 antigenaemia during infections. Data from two human infection studies was used to fit the model, and to investigate PfHRP2 kinetics. Four malaria RDTs were assessed in the laboratory to determine the minimum detectable concentration of PfHRP2. Results: Fitting of the PfHRP2 dynamics model indicated that in malaria nave hosts, P. falciparum parasites of the 3D7 strain produce 1.4 × 10 g of PfHRP2 per parasite per replication cycle. The four RDTs had minimum detection thresholds between 6.9 and 27.8 ng/mL. Combining these detection thresholds with the kinetics of PfHRP2, it is predicted that as few as 8 parasites/L may be required to maintain a positive RDT in a chronic infection. Conclusions: The results of the model indicate that good quality PfHRP2-based RDTs should be able to detect parasites on the first day of symptoms, and that the persistence of the antigen will cause the tests to remain positive for at least seven days after treatment. The duration of a positive test result following curative treatment is dependent on the duration and density of parasitaemia prior to treatment and the presence and affinity of anti-PfHRP2 antibodies

Artemisinin-induced parasite dormancy: a plausible mechanism for treatment failure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Artemisinin-combination therapy is a highly effective treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria but parasite recrudescence has been commonly reported following artemisinin (ART) monotherapy. The dormancy recovery hypothesis has been proposed to explain this phenomenon, which is different from the slower parasite clearance times reported as the first evidence of the development of ART resistance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study, an existing <it>P. falciparum </it>infection model is modified to incorporate the hypothesis of dormancy. Published <it>in vitro </it>data describing the characteristics of dormant parasites is used to explore whether dormancy alone could be responsible for the high recrudescence rates observed in field studies using monotherapy. Several treatment regimens and dormancy rates were simulated to investigate the rate of clinical and parasitological failure following treatment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The model output indicates that following a single treatment with ART parasitological and clinical failures occur in up to 77% and 67% of simulations, respectively. These rates rapidly decline with repeated treatment and are sensitive to the assumed dormancy rate. The simulated parasitological and clinical treatment failure rates after 3 and 7 days of treatment are comparable to those reported from several field trials.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although further studies are required to confirm dormancy <it>in vivo</it>, this theoretical study adds support for the hypothesis, highlighting the potential role of this parasite sub-population in treatment failure following monotherapy and reinforcing the importance of using ART in combination with other anti-malarials.</p

Development and evaluation of a spatial decision support system for malaria elimination in Bhutan

BACKGROUND: Bhutan has reduced its malaria incidence significantly in the last 5 years, and is aiming for malaria elimination by 2016. To assist with the management of the Bhutanese malaria elimination programme a spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed. The current study aims to describe SDSS development and evaluate SDSS utility and acceptability through informant interviews. METHODS: The SDSS was developed based on the open-source Quantum geographical information system (QGIS) and piloted to support the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar District. It was subsequently used to support reactive case detection (RACD) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar and two additional sub-districts in Sarpang District. Interviews were conducted to ascertain perceptions on utility and acceptability of 11 informants using the SDSS, including programme and district managers, and field workers. RESULTS: A total of 1502 households with a population of 7165 were enumerated in the four sub-districts, and a total of 3491 LLINs were distributed with one LLIN per 1.7 persons. A total of 279 households representing 728 residents were involved with RACD. Informants considered that the SDSS was an improvement on previous methods for organizing LLIN distribution, IRS and RACD, and could be easily integrated into routine malaria and other vector-borne disease surveillance systems. Informants identified some challenges at the programme and field level, including the need for more skilled personnel to manage the SDSS, and more training to improve the effectiveness of SDSS implementation and use of hardware. CONCLUSIONS: The SDSS was well accepted and informants expected its use to be extended to other malaria reporting districts and other vector-borne diseases. Challenges associated with efficient SDSS use included adequate skills and knowledge, access to training and support, and availability of hardware including computers and global positioning system receivers

Malaria burden and costs of intensifi ed control in Bhutan, 2006–14: an observational study and situation analysis

Introduction The number of malaria cases has fallen in Bhutan in the past two decades, and the country has a goal of complete elimination of malaria by 2016. The aims of this study are to ascertain the trends and burden of malaria, the costs of intensifi ed control activities, the main donors of funding for the control activities, and the costs of diff erent preventive measures in the pre-elimination phase (2006–14) in Bhutan. Methods We undertook a descriptive analysis of malaria surveillance data from 2006 to 2014, using data from the Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) run by the Department of Public Health of Bhutan’s Ministry of Health. Malaria morbidity and mortality in local Bhutanese people and foreign nationals were analysed. The cost of diff erent control and preventive measures were calculated, and the average numbers of long-lasting insecticidal nests per person were estimated. Findings A total of 5491 confi rmed malaria cases occurred in Bhutan between 2006 and 2014. By 2013, there was an average of one long-lasting insecticidal net for every 1·51 individuals. The cost of procuring long-lasting insecticidal nets accounted for more than 90% of the total cost of prevention measures. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria was the main international donor, accounting for more than 80% of the total funds. Interpretation The malaria burden in Bhutan decreased signifi cantly during the study period with high coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets. The foreseeable challenges that require national attention to maintain a malaria-free status after elimination are importation of malaria, especially from India; continued protection of the population in endemic districts through complete coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying; and exploration of local funding modalities post-elimination in the event of a reduction in international funding

An assessment of false positive rates for malaria rapid diagnostic tests caused by non-Plasmodium infectious agents and immunological factors.

BACKGROUND: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) can produce false positive (FP) results in patients with human African trypanosomiasis and rheumatoid factor (RF), but specificity against other infectious agents and immunological factors is largely unknown. Low diagnostic specificity caused by cross-reactivity may lead to over-estimates of the number of malaria cases and over-use of antimalarial drugs, at the cost of not diagnosing and treating the true underlying condition. METHODS: Data from the WHO Malaria RDT Product Testing Programme was analysed to assess FP rates of 221 RDTs against four infectious agents (Chagas, dengue, Leishmaniasis and Schistosomiasis) and four immunological factors (anti-nuclear antibody, human anti-mouse antibody (HAMA), RF and rapid plasma regain). Only RDTs with a FP rate against clean negative samples less than 10% were included. Paired t-tests were used to compare product-specific FP rates on clean negative samples and samples containing non-Plasmodium infectious agents and immunological factors. RESULTS: Forty (18%) RDTs showed no FP results against any tested infectious agent or immunological factor. In the remaining RDTs significant and clinically relevant increases in FP rates were observed for samples containing HAMA and RF (P<0.001). There were significant correlations between product-matched FP rates for RF and HAMA on all RDT test bands (P<0.001), and FP rates for each infectious agent and immunological factor were also correlated between test bands of combination RDTs (P≤0.002). CONCLUSIONS: False positive results against non-Plasmodium infectious agents and immunological factors does not appear to be a universal property of malaria RDTs. However, since many malaria RDTs have elevated FP rates against HAMA and RF positive samples practitioners may need to consider the possibility of false positive results for malaria in patients with conditions that stimulate HAMA or RF

Comparative effectiveness of malaria prevention measures: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Malaria causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. There are several preventive measures that are currently employed, including insecticide-treated nets (ITNs, including long-lasting insecticidal nets and insecticidal-treated bed nets), indoor residual spraying (IRS), prophylactic drugs (PD), and untreated nets (UN). However, it is unclear which measure is the most effective for malaria prevention. We therefore undertook a network meta-analysis to compare the efficacy of different preventive measures on incidence of malaria infection. A systematic literature review was undertaken across four medical and life sciences databases (PubMed, Cochrane Central, Embase, and Web of Science) from their inception to July 2016 to compare the effectiveness of different preventive measures on malaria incidence. Data from the included studies were analysed for the effectiveness of several measures against no intervention (NI). This was carried out using an automated generalized pairwise modeling (GPM) framework for network meta-analysis to generate mixed treatment effects against a common comparator of no intervention (NI). There were 30 studies that met the inclusion criteria from 1998-2016. The GPM framework led to a final ranking of effectiveness of measures in the following order from best to worst: PD, ITN, IRS and UN, in comparison with NI. However, only ITN (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.32-0.74) showed precision while other methods [PD (RR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.004-15.43), IRS (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.20-1.56) and UN (RR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.28-1.90)] demonstrating considerable uncertainty associated with their point estimates. Current evidence is strong for the protective effect of ITN interventions in malaria prevention. Even though ITNs were found to be the only preventive measure with statistical support for their effectiveness, the role of other malaria control measures may be important adjuncts in the global drive to eliminate malaria

A large proportion of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities in the low transmission setting of Temotu Province, Solomon Islands: challenges for malaria diagnostics in an elimination setting

Background: Many countries are scaling up malaria interventions towards elimination. This transition changes demands on malaria diagnostics from diagnosing ill patients to detecting parasites in all carriers including asymptomatic infections and infections with low parasite densities. Detection methods suitable to local malaria epidemiology must be selected prior to transitioning a malaria control programme to elimination. A baseline malaria survey conducted in Temotu Province, Solomon Islands in late 2008, as the first step in a provincial malaria elimination programme, provided malaria epidemiology data and an opportunity to assess how well different diagnostic methods performed in this setting

HRP2 and pLDH-Based Rapid Diagnostic Tests, Expert Microscopy, and PCR for Detection of Malaria Infection during Pregnancy and at Delivery in Areas of Varied Transmission: A Prospective Cohort Study in Burkina Faso and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent screening and treatment (IST) of malaria during pregnancy has been proposed as an alternative to intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), where IPTp is failing due to drug resistance. However, the antenatal parasitaemias are frequently very low, and the most appropriate screening test for IST has not been defined. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a multi-center prospective study of 990 HIV-uninfected women attending ANC in two different malaria transmission settings at Tororo District Hospital, eastern Uganda and Colsama Health Center in western Burkina Faso. Women were enrolled in the study in the second or third trimester of pregnancy and followed to delivery, generating 2,597 blood samples for analysis. Screening tests included rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) targeting histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) and parasite lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) and microscopy, compared to nPCR as a reference standard. At enrolment, the proportion of pregnant women who were positive for P. falciparum by HRP2/pan pLDH RDT, Pf pLDH/pan pLDH RDT, microscopy and PCR was 38%, 29%, 36% and 44% in Uganda and 21%, 16%, 15% and 35% in Burkina Faso, respectively. All test positivity rates declined during follow-up. In comparison to PCR, the sensitivity of the HRP2/pan pLDH RDT, Pf pLDH/pan pLDH RDT and microscopy was 75.7%, 60.1% and 69.7% in Uganda, 55.8%, 42.6% and 55.8% in Burkina Faso respectively for all antenatal visits. Specificity was greater than 96% for all three tests. Comparison of accuracy using generalized estimating equation revealed that the HRP2- detecting RDT was the most accurate test in both settings. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study suggests that HRP2-based RDTs are the most appropriate point-of-care test currently available for use during pregnancy especially for symptomatic women, but will still miss some PCR-positive women. The clinical significance of these very low density infections needs to be better defined