Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France

In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting performance of a large set of economic indicators, individually and jointly, as well as using dynamic factor models. We run out-of-sample forecasts implementing the Stock and Watson (1999) methodology. It turns out that, according to usual statistical criteria, the combination of several indicators -in particular those derived from surveys- provides better results than dynamic factor models, even after pre-selection of the variables included in the panel. However, factors included in VAR models exhibit more stable forecasting performance over time. Results for HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy are very encouraging. Moreover, we show that it is possible to use forecasts on this indicator to project overall inflation.Inflation ; Out-of-sample forecast ; Indicator models ; Dynamic factor models ; Phillips curve.

Leptogenesis beyond the limit of hierarchical heavy neutrino masses

We calculate the baryon asymmetry of the Universe in thermal leptogenesis beyond the usual lightest right-handed (RH) neutrino dominated scenario (N_1DS) and in particular beyond the hierarchical limit (HL), M_1 << M_2 << M_3, for the RH neutrino mass spectrum. After providing some orientation among the large variety of models, we first revisit the central role of the N_1DS, with new insights on the dynamics of the asymmetry generation and then discuss the main routes departing from it, focusing on models beyond the HL. We study in detail two examples of `strong-strong' wash-out scenarios: one with `maximal phase' and the limit of very large M_3, studying the effects arising when delta_2=(M_2-M_1)/M_1 is small. We extend analytical methods already applied to the N_1DS showing, for example, that, in the degenerate limit (DL), the efficiency factors of the RH neutrinos become equal with the single decay parameter replaced by the sum. Both cases disprove the misconception that close RH neutrino masses necessarily lead to a final asymmetry enhancement and to a relaxation of the lower bounds on M_1 and on the initial temperature of the radiation-dominated expansion. We also explain why leptogenesis tends to favor normal hierarchy compared to inverted hierarchy for the left-handed neutrino masses.Comment: 30 pages, 8 figures; corrected typo in Eq. (67); shortened Introduction, Section 3 and Conclusions; one figure removed; added 2 references; to appear in JCA

Flavour Issues in Leptogenesis

We study the impact of flavour in thermal leptogenesis, including the quantum oscillations of the asymmetries in lepton flavour space. In the Boltzmann equations we find different numerical factors and additional terms which can affect the results significantly. The upper bound on the CP asymmetry in a specific flavour is weaker than the bound on the sum. This suggests that -- when flavour dynamics is included -- there is no model-independent limit on the light neutrino mass scale,and that the lower bound on the reheat temperature is relaxed by a factor ~ (3 - 10).Comment: 19 pages, corrected equations for flavour oscillation

Mosaic Convergence of Rodent Dentitions

BACKGROUND:Understanding mechanisms responsible for changes in tooth morphology in the course of evolution is an area of investigation common to both paleontology and developmental biology. Detailed analyses of molar tooth crown shape have shown frequent homoplasia in mammalian evolution, which requires accurate investigation of the evolutionary pathways provided by the fossil record. The necessity of preservation of an effective occlusion has been hypothesized to functionally constrain crown morphological changes and to also facilitate convergent evolution. The Muroidea superfamily constitutes a relevant model for the study of molar crown diversification because it encompasses one third of the extant mammalian biodiversity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Combined microwear and 3D-topographic analyses performed on fossil and extant muroid molars allow for a first quantification of the relationships between changes in crown morphology and functionality of occlusion. Based on an abundant fossil record and on a well resolved phylogeny, our results show that the most derived functional condition associates longitudinal chewing and non interlocking of cusps. This condition has been reached at least 7 times within muroids via two main types of evolutionary pathways each respecting functional continuity. In the first type, the flattening of tooth crown which induces the removal of cusp interlocking occurs before the rotation of the chewing movement. In the second type however, flattening is subsequent to rotation of the chewing movement which can be associated with certain changes in cusp morphology. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE:The reverse orders of the changes involved in these different pathways reveal a mosaic evolution of mammalian dentition in which direction of chewing and crown shape seem to be partly decoupled. Either can change in respect to strong functional constraints affecting occlusion which thereby limit the number of the possible pathways. Because convergent pathways imply distinct ontogenetic trajectories, new Evo/Devo comparative studies on cusp morphogenesis are necessary

Phenomenology of Light Sneutrino Dark Matter in cMSSM/mSUGRA with Inverse Seesaw

We study the possibility of a light Dark Matter (DM) within a constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM) framework augmented by a SM singlet-pair sector to account for the non-zero neutrino masses by inverse seesaw mechanism. Working within a 'hybrid' scenario with the MSSM sector fixed at high scale and the singlet neutrino sector at low scale, we find that, contrary to the case of the usual cMSSM where the neutralino DM cannot be very light, we can have a light sneutrino DM with mass below 100 GeV satisfying all the current experimental constraints from cosmology, collider as well as low-energy experiments. We also note that the supersymmetric inverse seesaw mechanism with sneutrino as the lightest supersymmetric partner can have enhanced same-sign dilepton final states with large missing transverse energy (mET) coming from the gluino- and squark-pair as well as the squark-gluino associated productions and their cascade decay through charginos. We present a collider study for the same-sign dilepton+jets+mET signal in this scenario and propose some distinctions with the usual cMSSM. We also comment on the implications of such a light DM scenario on the invisible decay width of an 125 GeV Higgs boson.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figures, 7 tables; matches published versio

Ancient DNA of the Extinct Lava Shearwater (Puffinus olsoni) from the Canary Islands Reveals Incipient Differentiation within the P. puffinus Complex

The loss of species during the Holocene was, dramatically more important on islands than on continents. Seabirds from islands are very vulnerable to human-induced alterations such as habitat destruction, hunting and exotic predators. For example, in the genus Puffinus (family Procellariidae) the extinction of at least five species has been recorded during the Holocene, two of them coming from the Canary Islands

Photodynamic and Antibiotic Therapy Impair the Pathogenesis of Enterococcus faecium in a Whole Animal Insect Model

Enterococcus faecium has emerged as one of the most important pathogens in healthcare-associated infections worldwide due to its intrinsic and acquired resistance to many antibiotics, including vancomycin. Antimicrobial photodynamic therapy (aPDT) is an alternative therapeutic platform that is currently under investigation for the control and treatment of infections. PDT is based on the use of photoactive dye molecules, widely known as photosensitizer (PS). PS, upon irradiation with visible light, produces reactive oxygen species that can destroy lipids and proteins causing cell death. We employed Galleria mellonella (the greater wax moth) caterpillar fatally infected with E. faecium to develop an invertebrate host model system that can be used to study the antimicrobial PDT (alone or combined with antibiotics). In the establishment of infection by E. faecium in G. mellonella, we found that the G. mellonella death rate was dependent on the number of bacterial cells injected into the insect hemocoel and all E. faecium strains tested were capable of infecting and killing G. mellonella. Antibiotic treatment with ampicillin, gentamicin or the combination of ampicillin and gentamicin prolonged caterpillar survival infected by E. faecium (P = 0.0003, P = 0.0001 and P = 0.0001, respectively). In the study of antimicrobial PDT, we verified that methylene blue (MB) injected into the insect followed by whole body illumination prolonged the caterpillar survival (P = 0.0192). Interestingly, combination therapy of larvae infected with vancomycin-resistant E. faecium, with antimicrobial PDT followed by vancomycin, significantly prolonged the survival of the caterpillars when compared to either antimicrobial PDT (P = 0.0095) or vancomycin treatment alone (P = 0.0025), suggesting that the aPDT made the vancomycin resistant E. faecium strain more susceptible to vancomycin action. In summary, G. mellonella provides an invertebrate model host to study the antimicrobial PDT and to explore combinatorial aPDT-based treatments

Phylogeographic Study of Apodemus ilex (Rodentia: Muridae) in Southwest China

BACKGROUND: The Mountains of southwest China have complex river systems and a profoundly complex topography and are among the most important biodiversity hotspots in the world. However, only a few studies have shed light on how the mountains and river valleys promote genetic diversity. Apodemus ilex is a fine model for investigating this subject. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To assess the genetic diversity and biogeographic patterns of Apodemus ilex, the complete cytochrome b gene sequences (1,140 bp) were determined from 203 samples of A. draco/ilex that were collected from southwest China. The results obtained suggested that A. ilex and A. draco are sistergroups and diverged from each other approximately 2.25 million years ago. A. ilex could be divided into Eastern and Western phylogroups, each containing two sub-groups and being widespread in different geographical regions of the southern Hengduan Mountains and the western Yunnan - Guizhou Plateau. The population expansions of A. ilex were roughly from 0.089 Mya to 0.023 Mya. CONCLUSIONS: Our result suggested that A. ilex is a valid species rather than synonym of A. draco. As a middle-high elevation inhabitant, the phylogenetic pattern of A. ilex was strongly related to the complex geographical structures in southwest China, particularly the existence of deep river valley systems, such as the Mekong and Salween rivers. Also, it appears that the evolutionary history of A. ilex, such as lineage divergences and population expansions were strongly affected by climate fluctuation in the Late Pleistocene