Measuring portfolio performance using a modified measure of risk

This paper reports the results of an investigation into the properties of a theoretical modification of beta proposed by Leland (1999) and based on earlier work of Rubinstein (1976). It is shown that when returns are elliptically symmetric, beta is the appropriate measure of risk and that there are other situations in which the modified beta will be similar to the traditional measure based on the capital asset pricing model. For the case where returns have a normal distribution, it is shown that the criterion either does not exist or reduces exactly to the conventional beta. It is therefore conjectured that the modified measure will only be useful for portfolios that have nonstandard return distributions which incorporate skewness. For such situations, it is shown how to estimate the measure using regression and how to compare the resulting statistic with a traditional estimated beta using Hotelling's test. An empirical study based on stocks from the FTSE350 does not find evidence to support the use of the new measure even in the presence of skewness.Journal of Asset Management (2007) 7, 388-403. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jam.225005

Intakes of fruits and vegetables, carotenoids and vitamins A, E, C in relation to the risk of bladder cancer in the ATBC cohort study

We examined the relation between dietary fruit and vegetables, carotenoids and vitamin intakes and the risk of bladder cancer among male smokers in a prospective cohort study. Over a median of 11 years, we followed 27 111 male smokers aged 50–69 years who were initially enrolled in the Alpha-Tocopherol Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. During this period, 344 men developed bladder cancer. All of these men had completed a 276-food item dietary questionnaire at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals and to simultaneously adjust for age, smoking history, energy intake and intervention group. Consumption of fruits and vegetables was not associated with the risk of bladder cancer (relative risk=1.28; 95% confidence intervals CI: 0.89–1.84, for highest vs lowest quintile). Similarly, no associations were observed for groups of fruits or vegetables (berries and cruciferous vegetables), or for specific fruits and vegetables. Dietary intakes of alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, lycopene, lutein/zeaxanthin, beta-cryptoxanthin, vitamins A, E, and C, and folate were not related to the risk of bladder cancer. These findings suggest that fruit and vegetable intakes are not likely to be associated with bladder cancer risk. However, these results may not be generalisable to non-smokers

Increased S-nitrosylation and proteasomal degradation of caspase-3 during infection contribute to the persistence of adherent invasive escherichia coli (AIEC) in immune cells

Adherent invasive Escherichia coli (AIEC) have been implicated as a causative agent of Crohn's disease (CD) due to their isolation from the intestines of CD sufferers and their ability to persist in macrophages inducing granulomas. The rapid intracellular multiplication of AIEC sets it apart from other enteric pathogens such as Salmonella Typhimurium which after limited replication induce programmed cell death (PCD). Understanding the response of infected cells to the increased AIEC bacterial load and associated metabolic stress may offer insights into AIEC pathogenesis and its association with CD. Here we show that AIEC persistence within macrophages and dendritic cells is facilitated by increased proteasomal degradation of caspase-3. In addition S-nitrosylation of pro- and active forms of caspase-3, which can inhibit the enzymes activity, is increased in AIEC infected macrophages. This S-nitrosylated caspase-3 was seen to accumulate upon inhibition of the proteasome indicating an additional role for S-nitrosylation in inducing caspase-3 degradation in a manner independent of ubiquitination. In addition to the autophagic genetic defects that are linked to CD, this delay in apoptosis mediated in AIEC infected cells through increased degradation of caspase-3, may be an essential factor in its prolonged persistence in CD patients

Primary cilia elongation in response to interleukin-1 mediates the inflammatory response

Primary cilia are singular, cytoskeletal organelles present in the majority of mammalian cell types where they function as coordinating centres for mechanotransduction, Wnt and hedgehog signalling. The length of the primary cilium is proposed to modulate cilia function, governed in part by the activity of intraflagellar transport (IFT). In articular cartilage, primary cilia length is increased and hedgehog signaling activated in osteoarthritis (OA). Here, we examine primary cilia length with exposure to the quintessential inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 (IL-1), which is up-regulated in OA. We then test the hypothesis that the cilium is involved in mediating the downstream inflammatory response. Primary chondrocytes treated with IL-1 exhibited a 50 % increase in cilia length after 3 h exposure. IL-1-induced cilia elongation was also observed in human fibroblasts. In chondrocytes, this elongation occurred via a protein kinase A (PKA)-dependent mechanism. G-protein coupled adenylate cyclase also regulated the length of chondrocyte primary cilia but not downstream of IL-1. Chondrocytes treated with IL-1 exhibit a characteristic increase in the release of the inflammatory chemokines, nitric oxide and prostaglandin E2. However, in cells with a mutation in IFT88 whereby the cilia structure is lost, this response to IL-1 was significantly attenuated and, in the case of nitric oxide, completely abolished. Inhibition of IL-1-induced cilia elongation by PKA inhibition also attenuated the chemokine response. These results suggest that cilia assembly regulates the response to inflammatory cytokines. Therefore, the cilia proteome may provide a novel therapeutic target for the treatment of inflammatory pathologies, including OA

Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>U.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality. Separate models were fitted for four age categories (<18, 18–49, 50–64, 65+). Bayesian parameter estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For the eleven year study period, a total of 260,814 (95% CI: 201,011–290,556) deaths was attributed to influenza, corresponding to an annual average of 23,710, or 0.91% of all deaths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Annual estimates for influenza mortality were highly variable from year to year, but they were systematically lower than previously published estimates. The excellent fit of our model with the data suggest validity of our estimates.</p

Plasma carotenoids are associated with socioeconomic status in an urban Indigenous population: an observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Indigenous Australians experience poorer health than other Australians. Poor diet may contribute to this, and be related to their generally lower socioeconomic status (SES). Even within Indigenous populations, SES may be important. Our aim was to identify factors associated with plasma carotenoids as a marker of fruit and vegetable intake among urban dwelling Indigenous Australians, with a particular focus on SES.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross sectional study in urban dwelling Indigenous Australians participating in the DRUID (Darwin Region Urban Indigenous Diabetes) Study. An SES score, based on education, employment, household size, home ownership and income was computed and plasma carotenoids measured by high performance liquid chromatography in 897 men and women aged 15 - 81 years (mean 36, standard deviation 15). Linear regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between SES and plasma carotenoids, adjusting for demographic, health and lifestyle variables, including frequency of intakes of food groups (fruit, vegetables, takeaway foods, snacks and fruit/vegetable juice).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SES was positively associated with plasma concentrations of lutein/zeaxanthin (p trend <0.001), lycopene (p trend = 0.001), α- and ß-carotene (p trend = 0.019 and 0.026 respectively), after adjusting for age, sex, glucose tolerance status, smoking, alcohol use, hypercholesterolemia, dyslipidemia, self-reported health, waist to hip ratio and body mass index. These associations remained after adjustment for self-reported frequency of intake of fruit, vegetables, takeaway foods and fruit juice, which all showed some association with plasma carotenoids. Even in the highest SES quintile, concentrations of all carotenoids (except lycopene) were lower than the mean concentrations in a non-Indigenous population.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Even within urban Indigenous Australians, higher SES was associated with higher concentrations of plasma carotenoids. Low plasma carotenoids have been linked with poor health outcomes; increasing accessibility of fruit and vegetables, as well as reducing smoking rates could increase concentrations and otherwise improve health, but our results suggest there may be additional factors contributing to lower carotenoid concentrations in Indigenous Australians.</p

Risk of urinary bladder cancer: a case-control analysis of industry and occupation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Uncertainty remains about urinary bladder cancer (UBC) risk for many occupations. Here, we investigate the association between occupation, industry and UBC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Lifetime occupational history was collected by in-person interview for 604 newly diagnosed UBC patients and 604 cancer-free controls. Each job title was assigned a two-digit industry code and a three-digit occupation code. Odds ratios (ORs) for UBC associated with ever being employed in an industry or occupation were calculated by unconditional logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and smoking status. We also examined UBC risk by duration of employment (>0 to <10, ≥10 years) in industry or occupation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significantly increased risk of UBC was observed among waiters and bartenders (OR 2.87; 95% CI 1.05 to 7.72) and occupations related to medicine and health (OR 2.17; 95% CI 1.21 to 3.92), agricultural production, livestock and animal specialties (OR 1.90; 95% CI 1.03 to 3.49), electrical assembly, installation and repair (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.65), communications (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.00 to 3.01), and health services (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.44). For these occupations we also observed a significant excess risk of UBC for long-term work (i.e. ≥10 years), with the exception of waiters and bartenders. Employment for 10 years or more was associated with increased risk of UBC in general farmers (OR 9.58; 95% CI 2.18 to 42.05), agricultural production of crops (OR 3.36; 95% CI 1.10 to 10.27), occupations related to bench working (OR 4.76; 95% CI 1.74 to 13.01), agricultural, fishery, forestry & related (OR 4.58; 95% CI 1.97 to 10.65), transportation equipment (OR 2.68; 95% CI 1.03 to 6.97), and structural work (OR 1.85; 95% CI 1.16 to 2.95).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides evidence of increased risk of UBC for occupations that were previously reported as at-risk. Workers in several occupation and industry groups have a significantly higher risk of UBC, particularly when duration of employment is 10 years or more.</p

Parents’ experiences of caring for a young person with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1): a qualitative study

Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) is a variable and unpredictable genetic condition that can lead to changes to an individual’s appearance. Research has started to explore children’s and young people’s experiences of living with the condition; however, there is a lack of research with parents. This exploratory qualitative study set out to examine parents’ experiences of caring for a young person with NF1. Seven parents took part in semi structured interviews which were subjected to a thematic analysis. Three key themes were identified which related to managing the uncertainty of the condition, the impact of an altered appearance, and others’ awareness and understanding of NF1. Parents felt that understanding NF1 themselves in order to support their child was beneficial whilst a perceived lack of understanding by others was cited as a significant challenge. Parents require trustworthy information and also more widely call for greater understanding and awareness of the condition