EU accession and Poland's external trade policy

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On the graph labellings arising from phylogenetics

We study semigroups of labellings associated to a graph. These generalise the Jukes-Cantor model and phylogenetic toric varieties defined in [Buczynska W., Phylogenetic toric varieties on graphs, J. Algebraic Combin., 2012, 35(3), 421–460]. Our main theorem bounds the degree of the generators of the semigroup by g + 1 when the graph has first Betti number g. Also, we provide a series of examples where the bound is sharp.publishe

Pooling stated and revealed preference data in the presence of RP endogeneity

Pooled discrete choice models combine revealed preference (RP) data and stated preference (SP) data to exploit advantages of each. SP data is often treated with suspicion because consumers may respond differently in a hypothetical survey context than they do in the marketplace. However, models built on RP data can suffer from endogeneity bias when attributes that drive consumer choices are unobserved by the modeler and correlated with observed variables. Using a synthetic data experiment, we test the performance of pooled RP–SP models in recovering the preference parameters that generated the market data under conditions that choice modelers are likely to face, including (1) when there is potential for endogeneity problems in the RP data, such as omitted variable bias, and (2) when consumer willingness to pay for attributes may differ from the survey context to the market context. We identify situations where pooling RP and SP data does and does not mitigate each data source’s respective weaknesses. We also show that the likelihood ratio test, which has been widely used to determine whether pooling is statistically justifiable, (1) can fail to identify the case where SP context preference differences and RP endogeneity bias shift the parameter estimates of both models in the same direction and magnitude and (2) is unreliable when the product attributes are fixed within a small number of choice sets, which is typical of automotive RP data. Our findings offer new insights into when pooling data sources may or may not be advisable for accurately estimating market preference parameters, including consideration of the conditions and context under which the data were generated as well as the relative balance of information between data sources.This work was supported in part by a grant from the Link Foundation, a grant from the National Science Foundation # 1064241 , and a grant from Ford Motor Company. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the sponsors.Accepted manuscrip

A mid-rotation bottomland red oak stand three years after thinning and fertilization

To determine the effects of intermediate silvicultural treatments on bottomland hardwoods, two types of thinning (crown thinning and low thinning) and one level of fertilizer (200 lb/ac N + 50 lb/ac P) were applied to a predominantly red oak stand in southeastern Texas. Treatments were applied in a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement as a randomized complete block design of 12 ac in size. Crop trees were selected prior to the treatments, and diameter at breast height measurements were taken pre-treatment and for three proceeding years to assess diameter growth response of all trees. Epicormic branching measurements were also taken for three years post-treatment to evaluate epicormic branching response of all crop trees to crown thinning, low thinning and fertilization. Furthermore, reproduction plots were established pre-treatment to evaluate reproduction height growth response to all intermediate treatments. First-year results showed no significant difference in current annual increment (CAI) of crop-tree diameter growth response; however, second-year results of CAI diameter growth showed that crop trees in thinned plots achieved significantly more growth than in unthinned plots. With third-year results of CAI diameter growth, crop trees in crow-thinned plots grew significantly better than in both low-thinned and unthinned plots, all regardless of fertilization. Epicormic branching was generally greater in crown-thinned and fertilized plots immediately following treatment, and reproduction height growth was generally greater in crown-thinned, and in some cases, fertilized plots

Prediction Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (2006, {\it Solar Phys.}, {\bf237}, 101) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for the space weather forecast. Our study determined that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs within Earth's vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances

Matematička analiza procesa homogenizacije u loncu s argonskim miješanjem

Mathematical models processed results of experimental investigation obtained during ladle gas argon bubbling realized by stir elements situated in the ladle bottom. Exact theoretical description of processes occurring at argon bubbling into steel would be very complex and it would lead to a system of non-linear partial differential equations describing transfer of momentum, heat, components, and with excitation function in the form of equation of so called deterministic chaos (argon bubbling). On the basis of pouring ladle model diagram and concentrations courses, the simplified linear physically adequate model was proposed, which described behavior of steel concentration in pouring ladle during its bubbling. The analysed process was understood in the form of a cybernetic model.Matematičkim su modelima obrađeni rezultati eksperimentalnog instraživanja homogenizacije u loncu s argonskim mješačima. Egzaktan teorijski opis procesa uvođenja mjehurića argona u čeličnu talinu bio bi vrlo kompleksan i vodio bi k sustavu nelinearnih diferencijalnih jednadžbi za opis prijenosa momenta gibanja, topline i elemenata, uz dodatnu funkciju takozvanog determinističkog kaosa (gibanje mjehurića argona). Temeljem dijagramskog modela i koncentracijskih krugova predložen je pojednostavnjen, fizikalno odgovarajući linearni model, koji prikazuje promjenu koncentracije čelične taline u ljevačkom loncu tijekom upuštanja mjehurića. Analizirani process smatran je pritom kibernetičkim modelom

Space Weather Application Using Projected Velocity Asymmetry of Halo CMEs

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) originating from regions close to the center of the Sun are likely to be responsible for severe geomagnetic storms. It is important to predict geo-effectiveness of HCMEs using observations when they are still near the Sun. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations do not provide true speeds of CMEs due to the projection effects. In the present paper, we present a new technique allowing estimate the space speed and approximate source location using projected speeds measured at different position angles for a given HCME (velocity asymmetry). We apply this technique to HCMEs observed during 2001-2002 and find that the improved speeds are better correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth and with the magnitudes ensuing geomagnetic storms.Comment: accepted for [publication in Solar Physic

Cosmic-ray Acceleration at Ultrarelativistic Shock Waves: Effects of a "Realistic" Magnetic Field Structure

First-order Fermi acceleration processes at ultrarelativistic shocks are studied with Monte Carlo simulations. The accelerated particle spectra are derived by integrating the exact particle trajectories in a turbulent magnetic field near the shock. ''Realistic'' features of the field structure are included. We show that the main acceleration process at superluminal shocks is the particle compression at the shock. Formation of energetic spectral tails is possible in a limited energy range only for highly perturbed magnetic fields, with cutoffs occuring at low energies within the resonance energy range considered. These spectral features result from the anisotropic character of particle transport in the downstream magnetic field, where field compression produces effectively 2D perturbations. Because of the downstream field compression, the acceleration process is inefficient in parallel shocks for larger turbulence amplitudes, and features observed in oblique shocks are recovered. For small-amplitude turbulence, wide-energy range particle spectra are formed and modifications of the process due to the existence of long-wave perturbations are observed. In both sub- and superluminal shocks, an increase of \gamma leads to steeper spectra with lower cut-off energies. The spectra obtained for the ``realistic'' background conditions assumed here do not converge to the ``universal'' spectral index claimed in the literature. Thus the role of the first-order Fermi process in astrophysical sources hosting relativistic shocks requires serious reanalysis.Comment: submitted to Ap

The effects of war trauma and displacement on affective processing and mental health of refugee children

Emotion processing plays a crucial role in psychosocial development and is shaped by early environments. Atypicalities in emotion recognition and attention have been linked to early adversity, such as child maltreatment, and to poorer mental health throughout the lifespan. However, it is currently unknown if other types of early stress can impact affective processing with similar consequences. This thesis aims to investigate the effects of war related trauma and displacement on refugee children affective processing and mental health. We used cognitive tasks and eye-tracking to investigate emotion recognition and emotional attention of Syrian refugee and Jordanian nonrefugee children, and questionnaires to assess children’s trauma (caregiver-reported) and psychopathology (child-reported). Firstly, using an emotion recognition task we found that both refugee and nonrefugee children displayed a similar bias, where they perceived neutral faces as sad rather than happy. Secondly, with a free- viewing eye-tracking measure we found that refugee and nonrefugee children showed similar patterns of sustained attention to threat, although refugee children displayed an initial aversion to angry and happy emotions. Importantly, the severity of trauma exposure was linked to increased sustained attention to threat. Finally, using a dot probe task to measure attention bias to anger and sadness, we found that refugee children and their mothers displayed an attention bias to anger suggestive of hypervigilance (children and mothers) and disengagement difficulties (mothers). The link between maternal depression and child conduct problems were moderated by child attention bias to anger. Overall, our findings present novel insights into affective processing of refugee children, suggesting an impact of war-related trauma on attention distribution related to threat-processing, and highlighting the importance of cognitive biases as a potential intervention target in vulnerable populations