The role of pathogen shedding in linking within- and between-host pathogen dynamics

A model linking within- and between-host pathogen dynamics via pathogen shedding (emission of pathogens throughout the course of infection) is developed, and several aspects of host availability and co-infection are considered. In this model, the rate of pathogen shedding affects both the pathogen population size within a host (also affecting host mortality) and the rate of infection of new hosts. Our goal is to ascertain how the rate of shedding is likely to evolve, and what factors permit coexistence of alternative shedding rates in a pathogen population. For a constant host population size (where an increase in infected hosts necessarily decreases susceptible hosts), important differences arise depending on whether pathogens compete only for susceptible (uninfected) hosts, or whether co-infection allows for competition for infected hosts. With no co-infection, the pathogen type that can persist with the lowest number of susceptible hosts will outcompete any other, which under the assumptions of the model is the pathogen with the highest basic reproduction number. This is often a pathogen with a relatively high shedding rate (s). If within-host competition is allowed, a trade-off develops due to the conflicting effects of shedding on within- and between-host pathogen dynamics, with within-host competition favoring clones with low shedding rates while between-host competition benefits clones with higher shedding rates. With within-host competition for the same host cells, low shedding rate clones should eliminate high-s clones in a co-infected host, if equilibrium is reached. With co-infection, but no within-host competition, pathogen clones still interact by affecting the mortality of co-infected hosts; here, coexistence is more likely. With co-infection, two clones can coexist if one is the superior competitor for uninfected hosts and the other for co-infected hosts

Modeling Soil Erosion with Emphasis on Steep Slopes and the Rilling Process

A soil erosion model, known as KYERMO, was developed for use in soil erosion research. The model was written in Microsoft FORTRAN, which is a subset of the ANSI FORTRAN 77 standard, allowing the model to be run on an IBM-PC as well as a mainframe computer. The model structure consisted of many interrelated subroutines which facilitated model development, testing, and future expansion. A sensitivity analysis of the detachment component was performed, examining the number of rills, the number of space and time steps, and the detachment parameters. This analysis indicated that the model performed as expected for the detachment limiting case. Field plots for the collection of justification data were designed and constructed on steep slopes (28 and 30.5 percent). Their surfaces were shaped to provide controlled rill patterns. Rainfall was applied through use of an irrigation nozzle rainfall simulator. The field simulations included initial full plot (22.1 m) runs on unrilled surfaces with two and six rill watersheds, full plot runs on established surfaces, and half plot runs on established surfaces. Eight field simulations were conducted. Measured or sampled quantities included runoff rate, delivered sediment concentration, delivered sediment size distribution, rainfall intensity, soil moisture content, plot surface shape, and rill cross-sections. Each of the field erosion events was simulated using KYERMO. Hydrologic parameters were fitted to provide the proper runoff characteristics to allow justification of the erosion component of the model. The detachment parameters were initially set using parameters and relationships from the literature. Prediction was comparable to that reported by other researchers. The detachment parameters were then fitted individually to gain insights about their effects. The resultant values were then considered in light of plot characteristics. These analyses indicated that a more complete knowledge of the rill bed particle size distribution could be used to increase accuracy and that soil structure changes due to tillage should be considered. The detachment rate was found to be the limiting factor rather than the sediment transport rate

Modeling Erosion on Long Steep Slopes with Emphasis on the Rilling Process

A model of soil erosion, known as KYERMO, is presented which emphasizes those processes which are important on steep slopes. Particular emphasis is placed on modeling rill development and geometry since this is the least understood process in erosion mechanics. The model requires an input rill pattern. Rainfall inputs to the model require the use of breakpoint rainfall and kinetic energy. Surface storage is calculated based on random roughness data of Linden (1979). Infiltration is modeled by use of the two layer Green-Ampt-Mein-Larson model as proposed by Moore and Eigel (1981). Runoff is related to rainfall excess and surface storage by the exponential, relationship of Thelin and Keifer (1960). Erosion is modeled separately as rill and interrill erosion. Interrill erosion is modeled by evaluating raindrop splash and interrill transport capacity. Raindrop splash is predicted by using the Bubenzer and Jones (1971) equation which requires kinetic energy, rainfall intensity, and percent clay. In terr ill transport capacity is modeled by either the Yalin (1963) or Yang (1973) equation depending on user preference. The rate of delivery of soil to a rill is a minimum of either the transport rate or splash rate. Rill detachment capacity is calculated using the shear excess equation of Foster (1982). Transport capacity is calculated from either the Yalin (1963) or Yang ( 1973) depending on user preference. The distribution of detachment around the rill boundary is calculated as a function of the shear distribution. Shear is distributed by using a modification of the area method of Lundgren and Jonsson (1964). Rill wall sloughing is calculated by using the procedure of Wu et al. (1982) which uses a critical wall angle. Flow routing in rills is calculated by using the kinematic routing procedures of Brakensiek (1966). Data is presented showing that predictions made with model components are reasonable. A limited sensitivity analysis with the model shows that predictions follow the trends that one would expect

Effects of Clonal Reproduction of Evolutionary Lag and Evolutionary Rescue

Evolutionary lag—the difference between mean and optimal phenotype in the current environment—is of keen interest in light of rapid environmental change. Many ecologically important organisms have life histories that include stage structure and both sexual and clonal reproduction, yet how stage structure and clonality interplay to govern a population’s rate of evolution and evolutionary lag is unknown. Effects of clonal reproduction on mean phenotype partition into two portions: one that is phenotype dependent, and another that is genotype dependent. This partitioning is governed by the association between the nonadditive genetic plus random environmental component of phenotype of clonal offspring and their parents. While clonality slows phenotypic evolution toward an optimum, it can dramatically increase population survival after a sudden step change in optimal phenotype. Increased adult survival slows phenotypic evolution but facilitates population survival after a step change; this positive effect can, however, be lost given survival-fecundity trade-offs. Simulations indicate that the benefits of increased clonality under environmental change greatly depend on the nature of that change: increasing population persistence under a step change while decreasing population persistence under a continuous linear change requiring de novo variation. The impact of clonality on the probability of persistence for species in a changing world is thus inexorably linked to the temporal texture of the change they experience

Resources, mortality, and disease ecology: Importance of positive feedbacks between host growth rate and pathogen dynamics

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Israel Journal of Ecology and Evolution in 2015, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/15659801.2015.1035508.Resource theory and metabolic scaling theory suggest that the dynamics of a pathogen within a host should strongly depend upon the rate of host cell metabolism. Once an infection occurs, key ecological interactions occur on or within the host organism that determine whether the pathogen dies out, persists as a chronic infection, or grows to densities that lead to host death. We hypothesize that, in general, conditions favoring rapid host growth rates should amplify the replication and proliferation of both fungal and viral pathogens. If a host population experiences an increase in mortality, to persist it must have a higher growth rate, per host, often reflecting greater resource availability per capita. We hypothesize that this could indirectly foster the pathogen, which also benefits from increased within-host resource turnover. We first bring together in a short review a number of key prior studies which illustrate resource effects on viral and fungal pathogen dynamics. We then report new results from a semi-continuous cell culture experiment with SHIV, demonstrating that higher mortality rates indeed can promote viral proliferation. We develop a simple model that illustrates dynamical consequences of these resource effects, including interesting effects such as alternative stable states and oscillatory dynamics. Our paper contributes to a growing body of literature at the interface of ecology and infectious disease epidemiology, emphasizing that host abundances alone do not drive community dynamics: the physiological state and resource content of infected hosts also strongly influence host-pathogen interactions

Intrathoracic subclavian artery aneurysm repair in the thoracic endovascular aortic repair era

ObjectiveIntrathoracic subclavian artery aneurysms (SAAs) are rare aneurysms that often occur in association with congenital aortic arch anomalies and/or concomitant thoracic aortic pathology. The advent of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) methods may complement or replace conventional open SAA repair. Herein, we describe our experience with SAA repair in the TEVAR era.MethodsA retrospective review was performed of all intrathoracic SAAs repaired at a single institution since United States Food and Drug Administration approval of TEVAR in 2005.ResultsNineteen patients underwent 20 operations to repair 22 (13 native, nine aberrant) SAAs with an intrathoracic component. Mean SAA diameter was 3.1 cm (range, 1.6-6.0 cm). Mean patient age was 57 years (range, 24-80 years). Twenty-one percent (n = 4) of patients had a connective tissue disorder (two Loeys-Dietz, two Marfan). Thirty-six percent (n = 8) of SAAs were repaired by open techniques and 64% (n = 14) via a TEVAR-based approach. All TEVAR cases required proximal landing zone in the aortic arch (zone 0-2), and revascularization of at least one arch vessel was required in 83% (10/12) of patients. Concomitant repair of associated aortic pathology was performed in 50% (n = 10) of operations. Thirty-day/in-hospital rates of death, stroke, and permanent paraplegia/paraparesis were 5% (n = 1), 5% (n = 1), and 0%, respectively. Over mean (standard deviation) follow-up of 24 (21) months, 16% (n = 3) of patients required reintervention for subclavian artery bypass graft revision (n = 2) or type II endoleak (n = 1).ConclusionsThis is the largest single-institution series to date of TEVAR for SAA repair. Modern endovascular techniques expand SAA repair options with excellent results. The majority of SAAs and nearly all aberrant SAAs (Kommerell's diverticulum) can now be repaired using a TEVAR-based approach without the need for sternotomy or thoracotomy

Quantifying dilution and amplification in a community of hosts for tick-borne pathogens

Recent controversy over whether biodiversity reduces disease risk (dilution effect) has focused on the ecology of Lyme disease, a tick-borne zoonosis. A criticism of the dilution effect is that increasing host species richness might amplify disease risk, assuming that total host abundance, and therefore feeding opportunities for ticks, increase with species richness. In contrast, a dilution effect is expected when poor quality hosts for ticks and pathogens (dilution hosts) divert tick blood meals away from competent hosts. Even if host densities are additive, the relationship between host density and tick encounters can be nonlinear if the number of ticks that encounter a host is a saturating function of host density, which occurs if ticks aggregate on the remaining hosts rather than failing to find a host before death. Both dilution and amplification are theoretical possibilities, and assessing which is more prevalent required detailed analyses of empirical systems. We used field data to explore the degree of tick redistribution onto fewer individuals with variation in intraspecific host density and novel data-driven models for tick dynamics to determine how changes in vertebrate community composition influence the density of nymphs infected with the Lyme bacterium. To be conservative, we allowed total host density to increase additively with species richness. Our long-term field studies found that larval and nymphal ticks redistribute onto fewer individuals as host densities decline, that a large proportion of nymphs and adults find hosts, and that mice and chipmunks feed a large proportion of nymphs. White-footed mice, eastern chipmunks, short-tailed shrews, and masked shrews were important amplification hosts that greatly increased the density of infected nymphs. Gray squirrels and Virginia opossums were important dilution hosts. Removing these two species increased the maximum number of larvae attached to amplification hosts by 57%. Raccoons and birds were minor dilution hosts under some conditions. Even under the assumption of additive community assembly, some species are likely to reduce the density of infected nymphs as diversity increases. If the assumption of additivity is relaxed, then species that reduce the density of small mammals through predation or competition might substantially reduce disease risk.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America and published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. It can be found at: http://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291939-5582/Keywords: community ecology, Ixodes scapularis, ecosystem services, biodiversity, Lyme diseas

The Islamic State as an Empire of Nostalgia

Primary empires were the product of internal development and self-sustaining through the exploitation of their own resources, but there were also historically a large number of “shadow empires.” These were imperial polities that were the products of secondary empire formation, which came into existence as a response to the formation of primary empires elsewhere and could not exist except in interaction with them. One unusual subset of these were “empires of nostalgia” that claimed an imperial tradition and the outward trappings of an extinct empire, but did not themselves meet the basic requirements of an imperial state such as direct control of territory, true centralized rule, or significant urban centers. The most famous European example was the Carolingian Empire established by Charlemagne and its long lived successor, the Holy Roman Empire, which survived as an institution for a thousand years. The Islamic State’s proclamation of itself as a reborn caliphate is now a contemporary example built on nostalgia in the Islamic world for a long-dead empire that still exerts a strong cultural attraction upon many Muslims. The Islamic State justifies its actions and ideologies by attempting to ground them in a lost golden age that they propose to restore

Modeling Policy and Agricultural Decisions in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is responsible for the majority of the world's supply of poppy crops, which are often used to produce illegal narcotics like heroin. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates policy scenarios to characterize how the production of poppy can be dampened and replaced with licit crops over time. The model is initialized with spatial data, including transportation network and satellite-derived land use data. Parameters representing national subsidies, insurgent influence, and trafficking blockades are varied to represent different conditions that might encourage or discourage poppy agriculture. Our model shows that boundary-level interventions, such as targeted trafficking blockades at border locations, are critical in reducing the attractiveness of growing this illicit crop. The principle of least effort implies that interventions decrease to a minimal non-regressive point, leading to the prediction that increases in insurgency or other changes are likely to lead to worsening conditions, and improvements require substantial jumps in intervention resources.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures; GeoJournal, 2012, 10.1007/s10708-012-9453-