A General Approach for Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.Comment: version 2.02; 18 pages, 5 figures. This paper is related to but distinct from arXiv:1407.6333, and the results herein supersede arXiv:1407.6333. Source code available at https://github.com/mjbommar/scotus-predict-v

Extracellular ATP triggers proteolysis and cytosolic Ca²⁺ rise in Plasmodium berghei and Plasmodium yoelii malaria parasites.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium has a complex cell biology and it is essential to dissect the cell-signalling pathways underlying its survival within the host. METHODS: Using the fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) peptide substrate Abz-AIKFFARQ-EDDnp and Fluo4/AM, the effects of extracellular ATP on triggering proteolysis and Ca²⁺ signalling in Plasmodium berghei and Plasmodium yoelii malaria parasites were investigated. RESULTS: The protease activity was blocked in the presence of the purinergic receptor blockers suramin (50 μM) and PPADS (50 μM) or the extracellular and intracellular calcium chelators EGTA (5 mM) and BAPTA/AM (25, 100, 200 and 500 μM), respectively for P. yoelii and P. berghei. Addition of ATP (50, 70, 200 and 250 μM) to isolated parasites previously loaded with Fluo4/AM in a Ca²⁺-containing medium led to an increase in cytosolic calcium. This rise was blocked by pre-incubating the parasites with either purinergic antagonists PPADS (50 μM), TNP-ATP (50 μM) or the purinergic blockers KN-62 (10 μM) and Ip5I (10 μM). Incubating P. berghei infected cells with KN-62 (200 μM) resulted in a changed profile of merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1) processing as revealed by western blot assays. Moreover incubating P. berghei for 17 h with KN-62 (10 μM) led to an increase in rings forms (82% ± 4, n = 11) and a decrease in trophozoite forms (18% ± 4, n = 11). CONCLUSIONS: The data clearly show that purinergic signalling modulates P. berghei protease(s) activity and that MSP1 is one target in this pathway

Simultaneous multiple allelic replacement in the malaria parasite enables dissection of PKG function.

Over recent years, a plethora of new genetic tools has transformed conditional engineering of the malaria parasite genome, allowing functional dissection of essential genes in the asexual and sexual blood stages that cause pathology or are required for disease transmission, respectively. Important challenges remain, including the desirability to complement conditional mutants with a correctly regulated second gene copy to confirm that observed phenotypes are due solely to loss of gene function and to analyse structure-function relationships. To meet this challenge, here we combine the dimerisable Cre (DiCre) system with the use of multiple lox sites to simultaneously generate multiple recombination events of the same gene. We focused on the Plasmodium falciparum cGMP-dependent protein kinase (PKG), creating in parallel conditional disruption of the gene plus up to two allelic replacements. We use the approach to demonstrate that PKG has no scaffolding or adaptor role in intraerythrocytic development, acting solely at merozoite egress. We also show that a phosphorylation-deficient PKG is functionally incompetent. Our method provides valuable new tools for analysis of gene function in the malaria parasite

Antibodies against multiple merozoite surface antigens of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum inhibit parasite maturation and red blood cell invasion

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum merozoites expose at their surface a large protein complex, which is composed of fragments of merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP-1; called MSP-183, MSP-130, MSP-138, and MSP-142) plus associated processing products of MSP-6 and MSP-7. During erythrocyte invasion this complex, as well as an integral membrane protein called apical membrane antigen-1 (AMA-1), is shed from the parasite surface following specific proteolysis. Components of the MSP-1/6/7 complex and AMA-1 are presently under development as malaria vaccines. METHODS: The specificities and effects of antibodies directed against MSP-1, MSP-6, MSP-7 on the growth of blood stage parasites were studied using ELISA and the pLDH-assay. To understand the mode of action of these antibodies, their effects on processing of MSP-1 and AMA-1 on the surface of merozoites were investigated. RESULTS: Antibodies targeting epitopes located throughout the MSP-1/6/7 complex interfere with shedding of MSP-1, and as a consequence prevent erythrocyte invasion. Antibodies targeting the MSP-1/6/7 complex have no effect on the processing and shedding of AMA-1 and, similarly, antibodies blocking the shedding of AMA-1 do not affect cleavage of MSP-1, suggesting completely independent functions of these proteins during invasion. Furthermore, some epitopes, although eliciting highly inhibitory antibodies, are only poorly recognized by the immune system when presented in the structural context of the intact antigen. CONCLUSIONS: The findings reported provide further support for the development of vaccines based on MSP-1/6/7 and AMA-1, which would possibly include a combination of these antigens

The malarial serine protease SUB1 plays an essential role in parasite liver stage development.

Transmission of the malaria parasite to its vertebrate host involves an obligatory exoerythrocytic stage in which extensive asexual replication of the parasite takes place in infected hepatocytes. The resulting liver schizont undergoes segmentation to produce thousands of daughter merozoites. These are released to initiate the blood stage life cycle, which causes all the pathology associated with the disease. Whilst elements of liver stage merozoite biology are similar to those in the much better-studied blood stage merozoites, little is known of the molecular players involved in liver stage merozoite production. To facilitate the study of liver stage biology we developed a strategy for the rapid production of complex conditional alleles by recombinase mediated engineering in Escherichia coli, which we used in combination with existing Plasmodium berghei deleter lines expressing Flp recombinase to study subtilisin-like protease 1 (SUB1), a conserved Plasmodium serine protease previously implicated in blood stage merozoite maturation and egress. We demonstrate that SUB1 is not required for the early stages of intrahepatic growth, but is essential for complete development of the liver stage schizont and for production of hepatic merozoites. Our results indicate that inhibitors of SUB1 could be used in prophylactic approaches to control or block the clinically silent pre-erythrocytic stage of the malaria parasite life cycle

Conditional U1 gene silencing in Toxoplasma gondii

The functional characterisation of essential genes in apicomplexan parasites, such as Toxoplasma gondii or Plasmodium falciparum, relies on conditional mutagenesis systems. Here we present a novel strategy based on U1 snRNP-mediated gene silencing. U1 snRNP is critical in pre-mRNA splicing by defining the exon-intron boundaries. When a U1 recognition site is placed into the 3’-terminal exon or adjacent to the termination codon, pre-mRNA is cleaved at the 3’-end and degraded, leading to an efficient knockdown of the gene of interest (GOI). Here we describe a simple method that combines endogenous tagging with DiCre-mediated positioning of U1 recognition sites adjacent to the termination codon of the GOI which leads to a conditional knockdown of the GOI upon rapamycin-induction. Specific knockdown mutants of the reporter gene GFP and several endogenous genes of T. gondii including the clathrin heavy chain gene 1 (chc1), the vacuolar protein sorting gene 26 (vps26), and the dynamin-related protein C gene (drpC) were silenced using this approach and demonstrate the potential of this technology. We also discuss advantages and disadvantages of this method in comparison to other technologies in more detail

The Plasmodium falciparum pseudoprotease SERA5 regulates the kinetics and efficiency of malaria parasite egress from host erythrocytes.

Egress of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum from its host red blood cell is a rapid, highly regulated event that is essential for maintenance and completion of the parasite life cycle. Egress is protease-dependent and is temporally associated with extensive proteolytic modification of parasite proteins, including a family of papain-like proteins called SERA that are expressed in the parasite parasitophorous vacuole. Previous work has shown that the most abundant SERA, SERA5, plays an important but non-enzymatic role in asexual blood stages. SERA5 is extensively proteolytically processed by a parasite serine protease called SUB1 as well as an unidentified cysteine protease just prior to egress. However, neither the function of SERA5 nor the role of its processing is known. Here we show that conditional disruption of the SERA5 gene, or of both the SERA5 and related SERA4 genes simultaneously, results in a dramatic egress and replication defect characterised by premature host cell rupture and the failure of daughter merozoites to efficiently disseminate, instead being transiently retained within residual bounding membranes. SERA5 is not required for poration (permeabilization) or vesiculation of the host cell membrane at egress, but the premature rupture phenotype requires the activity of a parasite or host cell cysteine protease. Complementation of SERA5 null parasites by ectopic expression of wild-type SERA5 reversed the egress defect, whereas expression of a SERA5 mutant refractory to processing failed to rescue the phenotype. Our findings implicate SERA5 as an important regulator of the kinetics and efficiency of egress and suggest that proteolytic modification is required for SERA5 function. In addition, our study reveals that efficient egress requires tight control of the timing of membrane rupture

Regulation and Essentiality of the StAR-related Lipid Transfer (START) Domain-containing Phospholipid Transfer Protein PFA0210c in Malaria Parasites.

StAR-related lipid transfer (START) domains are phospholipid- or sterol-binding modules that are present in many proteins. START domain-containing proteins (START proteins) play important functions in eukaryotic cells, including the redistribution of phospholipids to subcellular compartments and delivering sterols to the mitochondrion for steroid synthesis. How the activity of the START domain is regulated remains unknown for most of these proteins. The Plasmodium falciparum START protein PFA0210c (PF3D7_0104200) is a broad-spectrum phospholipid transfer protein that is conserved in all sequenced Plasmodium species and is most closely related to the mammalian START proteins STARD2 and STARD7. PFA0210c is unusual in that it contains a signal sequence and a PEXEL export motif that together mediate transfer of the protein from the parasite to the host erythrocyte. The protein also contains a C-terminal extension, which is very uncommon among mammalian START proteins. Whereas the biochemical properties of PFA0210c have been characterized, the function of the protein remains unknown. Here, we provide evidence that the unusual C-terminal extension negatively regulates phospholipid transfer activity. Furthermore, we use the genetically tractable Plasmodium knowlesi model and recently developed genetic technology in P. falciparum to show that the protein is essential for growth of the parasite during the clinically relevant asexual blood stage life cycle. Finally, we show that the regulation of phospholipid transfer by PFA0210c is required in vivo, and we identify a potential second regulatory domain. These findings provide insight into a novel mechanism of regulation of phospholipid transfer in vivo and may have important implications for the interaction of the malaria parasite with its host cell