Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bayesian VARs and VARs using priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the period of 1994-2008. Except for short-term forecasts of inflation and interest rates, it is as good as or clearly outperforms BVARs and DSGE-VARs. Compared to the SPF, the DSGE model generates better output forecasts at longer horizons, but less accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and horizons. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C53, D58, E17Bayesian VAR, DSGE, forecasting, real-time data, SPF

Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. While all these policies can be used to cool down the output boom, exchange rate revaluation seems the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E63Boom-bust cycles, dynamic general equilibrium models, euro area accession

Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. While all these policies can be used to cool down the output boom, exchange rate revaluation seems the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare.boom-bust cycles, euro area accession, dynamic general equilibrium models

Monetary policy in a non-representative agent economy: A survey

It is well-known that central bank policies affect not only macroeconomic aggregates, but also their distribution across economic agents. Similarly, a number of papers demonstrated that heterogeneity of agents may matter for the transmission of monetary policy on macro variables. Despite this, the mainstream monetary economics literature has so far been dominated by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with representative agents. This article aims to tilt this imbalance towards heterogeneous agents setups by surveying the main positive and normative findings of this line of the literature, and suggesting areas in which these models could be implemented. In particular, we review studies that analyze the heterogeneity of (i) households’ income, (ii) households’ preferences, (iii) consumers’ age, (iv) expectations, and (v) firms’ productivity and financial position. We highlight the results on issues that, by construction, cannot be investigated in a representative agent framework and discuss important papers modifying the findings from the representative agent literature.Heterogeneous Agents; Monetary Policy

Selekcyjna bibliografia publikacji Tomasza Gobana-Klasa za lata 1968-2012

The bibliography is selective and covers only papers of scientific or documentary nature which concern journalistic matters. Only the original scientific dissertations (articles, books) were listed together. All other types of publications (information notes, reports, reviews) underwent selection. Only the papers of lasting value and some more important reviews of journalistic monographs were included. A total of 365 papers were listed. The books (including 25 author´s monographs and 10 volumes of edited or translated papers) are of special importance among these papers. The bibliography is preceded by a short methodological outline and statistics of the author´s works

No evidence for reproductive isolation through sexual conflict in the bulb mite Rhizoglyphus robini

Sexual conflict leading to sexual antagonistic coevolution has been hypothesized to drive reproductive isolation in allopatric populations and hence lead to speciation. However, the generality of this speciation mechanism is under debate. We used experimental evolution in the bulb mite Rhizoglyphus robini to investigate whether sexual conflict promotes reproductive isolation measured comprehensively to include all possible pre- and post-zygotic mechanisms. We established replicate populations in which we either enforced monogamy, and hence removed sexual conflict by making male and female evolutionary interests congruent, or allowed promiscuity. After 35 and 45 generations of experimental evolution, we found no evidence of reproductive isolation between the populations in any of the mating systems. Our results indicate that sexual conflict does not necessarily drive fast reproductive isolation and it may not be a ubiquitous mechanism leading to speciation

Radioguided surgery in patient with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumour followed by PET/CT scan as a new approach of complete resection evaluation — case report

Radioguided surgery using 68-gallium labelled somatostatin analogues is a promising method for detection of small, intra-abdominal, neuroendocrine neoplasm (NEN). However, due to high background activity (physiological uptake in e.g. spleen, adrenal glands and kidneys) tumours of the tail and body of pancreas might be impossible to detect with hand-held gamma probe. Therefore a new concept of intraoperative PET/CT scan of the resected tissue can be helpful in determining whether the tumour has been excised within the margins of healthy tissue. A 71-year-old woman with primary, non-metastatic NEN of the tail of pancreas is described. The tumour was diagnosed using MRI and PET/CT scan. Before operation patient was administered intravenously 80 MBq of 68Ga-DOTATATE. The surgery procedure was performed 60–180 minutes post injection. During the procedure pancreas was visualized, but the tumour could not be localized neither with palpation nor gamma probe. The tail of the pancreas was resected en bloc with spleen and adjacent lymph nodes. PET/CT scan of the tissue specimen was performed immediately followed by pathological examination. PET/CT scan of the resected tissue showed moderate activity in the tail of pancreas, and a small focus of high activity in the tail. Area of high SSTR expression in the tail corresponded with preoperative findings in MRI and whole-body PET/CT. Histopathological examination of the specimen confirmed the presence of neuroendocrine tumour grade 1. Immediate PET/CT scan of the surgical specimen can bring new quality to intraoperative assessment of completeness of resection of neuroendocrine tumours

Reconstructed historical distribution and phylogeography unravels non-steppic origin of Caucasotachea vindobonensis (Gastropoda: Helicidae)

Existing data on the phylogeography of European taxa of steppic provenance suggests that species were widely distributed during glacial periods but underwent range contraction and fragmentation during interglacials into “warm-stage refugia.” Among the steppe-related invertebrates that have been examined, the majority has been insects, but data on the phylogeography of snails is wholly missing. To begin to fill this gap, phylogeographic and niche modeling studies on the presumed steppic snail Caucasotachea vindobonensis were conducted. Surprisingly, reconstruction of ancestral areas suggests that extant C. vindobonensis probably originated in the Balkans and survived there during the Late Pleistocene glaciations, with a more recent colonization of the Carpatho-Pannonian and the Ponto-Caspian regions. In the Holocene, C. vindobonensis colonized between the Sudetes and the Carpathians to the north, where its recent and current distribution may have been facilitated by anthropogenic translocations. Together, these data suggest a possible non-steppic origin of C. vindobonensis. Further investigation may reveal the extent to which the steppic snail assemblages consist partly of Holocene newcomers