Political risk in light rail transit PPP projects

Since 2003 public-private partnerships (PPPs) have represented between 10 and 13.5% of the total investment in public services in the UK. The macro-economic and political benefits of PPPs were among the key drivers for central government's decision to promote this form of procurement to improve UK public services. Political support for a PPP project is critical and is frequently cited as the most important critical success factor. This paper investigates the significance of political support and reviews the treatment of political risk in a business case by the public sector project sponsor for major UK-based light rail transit PPP projects during their development stage. The investigation demonstrates that in the early project stages it is not traditional quantitative Monte Carlo risk analysis that is important; rather it is the identification and representation of political support within a business case together with an understanding of how this information is then used to inform critical project decisions

Bott periodicity and stable quantum classes

We use Bott periodicity to relate previously defined quantum classes to certain "exotic Chern classes" on $BU$. This provides an interesting computational and theoretical framework for some Gromov-Witten invariants connected with cohomological field theories. This framework has applications to study of higher dimensional, Hamiltonian rigidity aspects of Hofer geometry of $\mathbb{CP} ^{n}$, one of which we discuss here.Comment: prepublication versio

Evaluation of different methods of determining the angle of attack on wind turbine blades under yawed inflow conditions

As part of the AVATAR and Mexnext projects, this study compares several methods used to derive lifting line variables from CFD simulations of the MEXICO rotor in yawed inflow. The results from six partners within the AVATAR/Mexnext consortium using five different methods of extraction were compared. Overall comparison of the induced velocities at the mid and tip parts of blade shows fairly good agreement between the tested methods, where the derived angle of attack differs within 1°, within the linear range this accounts to ˂ 10% uncertainty on the aerodynamic forces. The presented comparison shows inadequate agreement between the methods for application towards the root

Climatic change and the Mediterranean

The temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Malta region developed by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia suggest that annual temperature will increase by 0.8 to 0.9°C per degree Celsius of global change and that there will be little if any change in the annual rainfall amounts around Malta. A statistical analysis of past meteorological data for Malta indicates an existing trend towards increasing extremes of temperature; namely an increase in the maximum and a decrease in the minimum temperatures. The mean annual temperature is also apparently increasing. These data also suggest a trend towards lower total annual rainfall; an increase in the atmospheric pressure; an increase in the number of days with thunderstorms; and decreases in cloud cover and the number of hours of bright sunshine. These trends suggest that a process of desertification is already occurring in Malta, and that there is an increase in the suspended particle concentration including pollutants, in the atmosphere over the island. The hydrological cycle will be significantly affected by global warming. In Malta, natural sources of freshwater account for about 37% of all potable water in the public supply and for 84% of all irrigation water. Global warming will affect the freshwater supply through changes to relative sea level, and through changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration. A eustatic rise in sea level of around 65 ± 35 cm by the year 2100 would adversely affect the existing extraction rates from Malta's principal aquifer and make it more vulnerable to sea water intrusion. In contrast, the direct climatic effect will be less pronounced, since only a small change in local precipitation is predicted to accompany global warming. Climate is a fundamental factor influencing the nature of the soils of Malta. Since an increase in temperature with little change in the total rainfall is anticipated, evapotranspiration will increase, leading to an increase in aridity, and to soil degradation mainly due to salinization and alkalinization. The anticipated increase in temperature; a shift in precipitation patterns; a decrease in soil water availability; and a rise in sea level, will have negative impacts on agriculture, natural vegetation and associated fauna, favouring an increase in xerophilic, thermophilic and halophilic species. Such species are likely to be introduced ones, thriving at the expense of native species. It is predicted that the character of the vegetation will change from that typical of Mediterranean coastal lowlands, to associations more typical of deserts. This shift in vegetation pattern would be enhanced by soil erosion and increased soil salinity. Remedial action at a local level could include measures to prevent soil erosion by gradually changing to crops and trees that stabilize soils and which tolerate the new climatic conditions. A change in temperature could possibly lead to an increase in agricultural pests, whilst sea level rise may cause inundation of low-lying agricultural land such as that at Pwales and of groves such as those at Salina Bay. The impacts on fisheries may be less dramatic but changes in migration patterns of important fish such as lampuki might happen; and the potentially adverse effects which competitive thermophilic seaweeds may have on the important Posidonia meadows may be of concern in the future. The effects on aquaculture are difficult to assess but may include an increase in pathogens. The control of pollutants and protection of the Posidonia meadows are recommended, together with development of more sustainable use of fisheries resources. The present coastal, near-shore and freshwater ecosystems are threatened by a number of anthropogenic, non-climatic changes. Any additional impacts on these ecosystems resulting from climatic changes will have to be assessed in the light of such nonclimatic effects, if the overall projections of future changes are to be accurate. Increased eutrophic conditions and increased water stratification are likely to occur under conditions of global change in certain localities already influenced by other non-climatic human activities. Non-linear biological responses to climatic changes are discussed and may prove to be quite significant but difficult to predict with the present state of knowledge. Coastal sandy beaches, sand dunes and saline marsh habitats are considered to be sensitive to predicted climate change impacts, through increased erosion, enhanced shoreline recession and increased environmental fluctuations. The extent of impacts on such habitats, under less severe climatic change scenarios, will depend largely on present and future land-use management practices. Given the coastal topography, present drainage patterns and negligible tectonic movements in Malta, the predicted rise in sea level will have coast and especially those in the main drainage basins will become more susceptible to periodic rainfall-induced flooding and anticipatory action will be needed to address the consequential economic and social disruption. Impacts on coastal settlements are expected as a result of tidal and storm surges rather than from permanent inundation. A rise in sea level may cause sewage systems to flood, and new systems may have to be developed to reduce public health risks from such a hazard, including the increased risk of epidemics of enteric disorders such as typhoid fever. Salt water intrusion into aquifers will reduce the quantity and quality of potable water resources. Temperature rise and an increased frequency of extreme high temperatures, especially when combined with high humidity, will put some population groups such as the elderly and infants at risk from heat stress. Diseases presently confined to the tropics may spread to higher latitudes, and tropical and sub-tropical vector borne diseases may become more widespread, partly because vector survival will increase and partly because the parasites may be able to complete their life cycle more easily. Malaria may reappear in Europe, whilst Leishmaniasis, which has been under control in the recent past, already seems to be on the increase, possibly as a result of recent increases in temperature and humidity. Increased exposure to the sun when combined with possible ozone layer depletion may result in a further rise in the incidence of both melanomas and non-melanotic skin cancers. Exposure to increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation is expected to cause damage to the cornea and lens and an increased incidence of cataracts. The effect of UVB radiation on the human immune system is far less well understood, but it is a well accepted fact however, that UV, possibly acting through DNA damage, is an important precipitating factor of the auto-immune condition, systemic lupus erythematosus. The tourist industry has, for many years, been one of the Islands' most important economic activities, employing 5.8% of the total working population. If the climate conditions of the Maltese Islands change, the tourist industry could suffer, causing disruption to the Maltese economy and hardship to the population. Sea level rise will certainly have an impact on this site-dependent and coastal industry, which would be adversely affected by the loss of sandy beaches and the reduction in potable water supply. The tourist industry, is by its very nature, fragile and susceptible to political, economic and social changes. Climate change will add another element of uncertainty to this sector. Transport in Malta depends entirely on roads, whilst a ferry service connects the islands of Malta, Gozo and Comino and is also used around the Grand Harbour area. Road traffic would suffer in the event of flooding of the main traffic arteries as a result of severe rain storms, which will probably increase along with the anticipated increase in autumn precipitation. Changes in climate are expected to have an effect on the patterns of energy demand to heat and cool buildings. Electricity generation, which accounts for almost two thirds of primary energy consumption, has grown on average by about 8.5% per year in recent years. The predicted average temperature increases would, theoretically, reduce the need to provide heating, thereby saving energy. Given the low thermal performance of Maltese buildings, an increase in ambient temperature may merely result in a more thermally comfortable interior, rather than a saving of energy. · In the commercial and industrial sectors, the interhal heat generated by the use of machinery is high and an increase in ambient temperature, may result in a need for cooling through increased ventilation and possibly an extension of the air conditioning season. The introduction of thermal insulation to the building envelope, would reduce both the heating demand in winter as well as the cooling demand in summer. The displacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy sources particularly biomass and hydro power would reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In Malta there is good potential for development of solar energy, although land availability is a major obstacle. There is less possibility of harnessing wind energy on a large scale although wind energy is already widely used for water pumping in agriculture.peer-reviewe

Nonlinearity and disorder: Classification and stability of nonlinear impurity modes

We study the effects produced by competition of two physical mechanisms of energy localization in inhomogeneous nonlinear systems. As an example, we analyze spatially localized modes supported by a nonlinear impurity in the generalized nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation and describe three types of nonlinear impurity modes --- one- and two-hump symmetric localized modes and asymmetric localized modes --- for both focusing and defocusing nonlinearity and two different (attractive or repulsive) types of impurity. We obtain an analytical stability criterion for the nonlinear localized modes and consider the case of a power-law nonlinearity in detail. We discuss several scenarios of the instability-induced dynamics of the nonlinear impurity modes, including the mode decay or switching to a new stable state, and collapse at the impurity site.Comment: 18 pages, 22 figure

Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods.An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia

Stability of Spatial Optical Solitons

We present a brief overview of the basic concepts of the soliton stability theory and discuss some characteristic examples of the instability-induced soliton dynamics, in application to spatial optical solitons described by the NLS-type nonlinear models and their generalizations. In particular, we demonstrate that the soliton internal modes are responsible for the appearance of the soliton instability, and outline an analytical approach based on a multi-scale asymptotic technique that allows to analyze the soliton dynamics near the marginal stability point. We also discuss some results of the rigorous linear stability analysis of fundamental solitary waves and nonlinear impurity modes. Finally, we demonstrate that multi-hump vector solitary waves may become stable in some nonlinear models, and discuss the examples of stable (1+1)-dimensional composite solitons and (2+1)-dimensional dipole-mode solitons in a model of two incoherently interacting optical beams.Comment: 34 pages, 9 figures; to be published in: "Spatial Optical Solitons", Eds. W. Torruellas and S. Trillo (Springer, New York

How do novel feed formulations affect growth performance, oxidative stress and immune response of atlantic salmon?

Trabajo presentado en la International Conference & Exposition Aquaculture Europe, celebrada en Funchal, Maderia (Portugal) del 04 al 07 de octubre de 2021.[Introduction]: The aquaculture industry continues to grow faster than any other sector of food production. The need to make aquaculture as sustainable and more environmentally conscious as possible is becoming clearer everyday (FAO, 2020). With this in mind, the replacement of fishmeal and fish oil in aquafeeds has been studied in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) (e.g., Bendiksen et al., 2011) with many products emerging as potential alternatives to conventional ones (e.g., Hodar et al., 2020). One of the main objectives of the EU project GAIN is to evaluate new ingredients that are already commercially available using different formulation concepts that consider all the fish nutritional needs. GAIN diets are based on circular economy principles and maximize resource efficiency, while contributing to zero waste in the agri-food value chain, being cost-effective feeds, and having good social acceptability. The present study aims to understand the actual effects of these novel feed formulations on growth performance, nutritional status, immunity and oxidative status.[Methods]: Quadruplicate groups of Atlantic salmon were fed ad libitum with three different diets. Two diets were developed to facilitate the eco-intensification of aquaculture through increased circularity and resource utilization (NOPAP - formula without processed animal protein - and PAP - formula with processed animal protein). The third diet was a commercial-like formulation that was used as a control. After a 96-day feeding trial, plasma samples were collected to evaluate humoral parameters (protease, anti-protease, bactericidal activity, and IgM). Liver and head kidney tissues (collected at day 45 and 96) were used for the simultaneous profiling by PCR array of a panel of 38 or 28 genes, respectively, as markers of growth performance, lipid and energy metabolism, and immune and antioxidant activities. Liver samples were also used to analyse lipid peroxidation. In addition, after 45 and 96 days, the lice count and fish welfare were also assessed by standard methods. The dorsal skin and foregut were collected at days 45 and 96 for mucosal mapping (mucous cell area, density, and barrier status).[Results]: Growth performance was adequate and comparable to commercial standards for the novel diets tested. Other parameters analysed, including those related to key performance indicators, intestinal and skin dorsal mucosal mapping, plasma innate immune defences, and lipid peroxidation in the liver did not significantly differ across diets. Regarding head kidney gene expression, at Day 45, 2 out of 28 genes in the array were differentially expressed (p<0.05). Gene expression of fish fed with novel feed formulations showed a pro-inflammatory profile evidenced by the up regulation of il-8, and a down regulation of il-10.At Day 96, the same genes continued to be differentially expressed, but gene clec1b (membrane protein) was also up-regulated. However, the rest of the analyses do not support this pro-inflammatory profile. A longer trial may bring light to some of the current results. In turn, the liver had a differential gene expression only at the second sampling point (Day96), where 4 out of 38 genes in the array were affected, including growth performance (igf2), lipid metabolism, elongases (elovl4), and energy metabolism (ucp2l and sirt1). These transcriptomic changes may be attributed to an initial response to the experimental diets. Cross-analysis of gene expression by time points and dietary treatment (two-way ANOVA) yielded only 2 out of 38 genes that had significantly different expression across treatments. The differentially expressed genes were related to growth performance (igf2) and lipid metabolism (elovl4).[Conclusions]: The novel feed formulations of the GAIN project for Atlantic Salmon seem to be viable options for the near future. In any case, all results are related to the formulation itself and cannot be attributed to a specific ingredient alteration. More studies are necessary to understand the cost-benefit of these new formulations and their market acceptability to optimize sustainability within the current/predictable European regulatory framework.This project was financed by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N° 773330 (GAIN), with additional support from Nord University (Norway) and SPAROS Lda (Portugal)