A simplified estimate of the Effective Reproduction Number RtR_t using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data

A simplified method to compute $R_t$, the Effective Reproduction Number, is presented. The method relates the value of $R_t$ to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition $R_t = 1$ corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.Comment: Submitted to: The European Physical Journal Plus. Revised version according to reviewer's comment

A study on the possible merits of using symptomatic cases to trace the development of the COVID-19 pandemic

In a recent work we introduced a novel method to compute the effective reproduction number $R_t$ and we applied it to describe the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The study is based on the number of daily positive swabs as reported by the Italian Dipartimento di Protezione Civile. Recently, the Italian Istituto Superiore di Sanit\`a made available the data relative of the symptomatic cases, where the reporting date is the date of beginning of symptoms instead of the date of the reporting of the positive swab. In this paper we will discuss merits and drawbacks of this data, quantitatively comparing the quality of the pandemic indicators computed with the two samples

Demographic, Clinical and Hematological Predictors of Carotid Atherosclerotic Plaque Histology

Aims: This retrospective observational study was aimed to identify hematological predictors of histological heterogeneity of carotid atherosclerotic plaques (CAPs). Results: The mean values of all demographic, clinical and haematological parameters did not differ between patients with or without symptomatic CAD. In univariate analysis, intraplaque hemorrhage was associated with male sex (r=0.18; p=0.032), superficial thrombosis with low hemoglobin (r=- 0.18; p=0.033), fibrosis with enhanced RDW (r=0.24; p=0.005), presence of foam cells with high WBC count (r=0.22; p=0.001), neovascularisation with high WBC count (r=0.17; p=0.048), whilst the presence of inflammatory infiltrate was also associated with high WBC count (r=0.17; p=0.043). Conlusions: The results of this retrospective observational study confirm that some traditional and inexpensive hematological parameters such as WBC count, hemoglobin and RDW may help identifying patients with more severe forms of CAD

A statistical analysis of death rates in Italy for the years 2015-2020 and a comparison with the casualties reported for the COVID-19 pandemic

We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 01/01/2015 to 30/09/2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction of the baseline trend of casualties in Italy, with a surplus of mortality in correspondence to the flu epidemics in winter and to the hottest periods in summer. While these peaks are symmetric in shape, the peak in coincidence with the COVID-19 pandemics is asymmetric and more pronounced. We fit the former with a Gaussian function and the latter with a Gompertz function, in order to quantify number of casualties, the duration and the position of all causes of excess deaths. The overall quality of the fit to the data turns out to be very good. We discuss the trend of casualties in Italy by different classes of ages and for the different genders. We finally compare the data-subtracted casualties as reported by ISTAT with those reported by the Italian Department for Civil Protection (DPC) relative to the deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, and we discuss the differences.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure

European Strategy for Accelerator-Based Neutrino Physics

Massive neutrinos reveal physics beyond the Standard Model, which could have deep consequences for our understanding of the Universe. Their study should therefore receive the highest level of priority in the European Strategy. The discovery and study of leptonic CP violation and precision studies of the transitions between neutrino flavours require high intensity, high precision, long baseline accelerator neutrino experiments. The community of European neutrino physicists involved in oscillation experiments is strong enough to support a major neutrino long baseline project in Europe, and has an ambitious, competitive and coherent vision to propose. Following the 2006 European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP) recommendations, two complementary design studies have been carried out: LAGUNA/LBNO, focused on deep underground detector sites, and EUROnu, focused on high intensity neutrino facilities. LAGUNA LBNO recommends, as first step, a conventional neutrino beam CN2PY from a CERN SPS North Area Neutrino Facility (NANF) aimed at the Pyhasalmi mine in Finland. A sterile neutrino search experiment which could also be situated in the CERN north area has been proposed (ICARUS-NESSIE) using a two detector set-up, allowing a definitive answer to the 20 year old question open by the LSND experiment. EUROnu concluded that a 10 GeV Neutrino Factory, aimed at a magnetized neutrino detector situated, also, at a baseline of around 2200 km (+-30%), would constitute the ultimate neutrino facility; it recommends that the next 5 years be devoted to the R&D, preparatory experiments and implementation study, in view of a proposal before the next ESPP update. The coherence and quality of this program calls for the continuation of neutrino beams at CERN after the CNGS, and for a high priority support from CERN and the member states to the experiments and R&D program.Comment: Prepared by the program committee of the Neutrino `town meeting', CERN, 14-16 May 2012 and submitted to the European Strategy For European Particle Physic

Guidelines on the diagnosis, treatment and management of visceral and renal arteries aneurysms: a joint assessment by the Italian Societies of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery (SICVE) and Medical and Interventional Radiology (SIRM)

: The objective of these Guidelines is to provide recommendations for the classification, indication, treatment and management of patients suffering from aneurysmal pathology of the visceral and renal arteries. The methodology applied was the GRADE-SIGN version, and followed the instructions of the AGREE quality of reporting checklist. Clinical questions, structured according to the PICO (Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome) model, were formulated, and systematic literature reviews were carried out according to them. Selected articles were evaluated through specific methodological checklists. Considered Judgments were compiled for each clinical question in which the characteristics of the body of available evidence were evaluated in order to establish recommendations. Overall, 79 clinical practice recommendations were proposed. Indications for treatment and therapeutic options were discussed for each arterial district, as well as follow-up and medical management, in both candidate patients for conservative therapy and patients who underwent treatment. The recommendations provided by these guidelines simplify and improve decision-making processes and diagnostic-therapeutic pathways of patients with visceral and renal arteries aneurysms. Their widespread use is recommended

Neutrino Physics with JUNO

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 kton multi-purposeunderground liquid scintillator detector, was proposed with the determinationof the neutrino mass hierarchy as a primary physics goal. It is also capable ofobserving neutrinos from terrestrial and extra-terrestrial sources, includingsupernova burst neutrinos, diffuse supernova neutrino background, geoneutrinos,atmospheric neutrinos, solar neutrinos, as well as exotic searches such asnucleon decays, dark matter, sterile neutrinos, etc. We present the physicsmotivations and the anticipated performance of the JUNO detector for variousproposed measurements. By detecting reactor antineutrinos from two power plantsat 53-km distance, JUNO will determine the neutrino mass hierarchy at a 3-4sigma significance with six years of running. The measurement of antineutrinospectrum will also lead to the precise determination of three out of the sixoscillation parameters to an accuracy of better than 1\%. Neutrino burst from atypical core-collapse supernova at 10 kpc would lead to ~5000inverse-beta-decay events and ~2000 all-flavor neutrino-proton elasticscattering events in JUNO. Detection of DSNB would provide valuable informationon the cosmic star-formation rate and the average core-collapsed neutrinoenergy spectrum. Geo-neutrinos can be detected in JUNO with a rate of ~400events per year, significantly improving the statistics of existing geoneutrinosamples. The JUNO detector is sensitive to several exotic searches, e.g. protondecay via the $p\to K^++\bar\nu$ decay channel. The JUNO detector will providea unique facility to address many outstanding crucial questions in particle andastrophysics. It holds the great potential for further advancing our quest tounderstanding the fundamental properties of neutrinos, one of the buildingblocks of our Universe