Executive summary climate change and the East Midlands economy

This report examines the way in which the weather has influenced the East Midlands economy in recent years and considers how climate change may influence this relationship during the 21st century. It considers how changing weather patterns will impact upon energy, water and flood risk, transport, agriculture, the built environment, tourism and health in the region

Climate change and the East Midlands economy appendix

This report examines the way in which the weather has influenced the East Midlands economy in recent years and considers how climate change may influence this relationship during the 21st century. It considers how changing weather patterns will impact upon energy, water and flood risk, transport, agriculture, the built environment, tourism and health in the region

Atmospheric boundary layer characteristics from ceilometer measurements. Part 1: a new method to track mixed layer height and classify clouds

The use of Automatic Lidars and Ceilometers (ALC) is increasingly extended beyond monitoring cloud base height to the study of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics. Therefore, long-term sensor networks observations require robust algorithms to automatically detect the mixed layer height (ZML). Here, a novel automatic algorithm CABAM (Characterise the Atmospheric Boundary layer based on ALC Measurements) is presented . CABAM is the first, non-proprietary mixed layer height algorithm specifically designed for the commonly deployed Vaisala CL31 ceilometer. The method: tracks ZML, takes into account precipitation, classifies the ABL based on cloud cover and cloud type, and determines the relation between ZML and cloud base height. CABAM relies solely on ALC measurements. Results perform well against independent reference (AMDAR: Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay) measurements and supervised ZML detection. AMDAR derived temperature inversion heights allow ZML evaluation throughout the day. Very good agreement is found in the afternoon when the mixed layer height extends over the full ABL. However, during night or the morning transition the temperature inversion is more likely associated with the top of the residual layer. From comparison with SYNOP reports, the ABL classification scheme generally correctly distinguishes between convective and stratiform boundary layer clouds, with slightly better performance during daytime. Applied to six years of ALC observations in central London, Kotthaus and Grimmond (2018) demonstrate CABAM results are valuable to characterise the urban boundary layer over London, UK, where clouds of various types are frequent

Friction in mid-latitude cyclones: an Ekman-PV mechanism

The mechanism by which the atmospheric boundary layer reduces the intensity of mid-latitude cyclones is investigated. It is demonstrated that two alternative theories, Ekman pumping and the baroclinic potential vorticity (PV) mechanism, in fact act in union to maximize the spin-down. Ekman pumping aids the ventilation of PV from the boundary layer, and shapes the resulting PV anomaly into one of increased static stability. PV inversion techniques are used to demonstrate how this anomaly reduces the coupling between the upper- and lower-levels within the cyclone, reducing the growth rate

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable

The impact of spin up and resolution on the representation of a clear convective boundary layer over London in order 100m grid-length versions of the Met Office Unified Model

With a number of operational centres looking forward to the possibilities of “city scale” NWP and climate modelling it is important to understand the behaviour of order 100m models over cities. A key issue is how to handle the representation of partially resolved turbulence in these models. In this paper we compare the representation of a clear convective boundary layer case in London in 100m and 50m grid-length versions of the Unified Model (MetUM) with observations. Comparison of Doppler lidar observations of the vertical velocity shows that convective overturning in the boundary layer is broadly well represented in terms of its depth and magnitude. The role of model resolution was investigated by comparing a 50m grid-length model with the 100m one. It is found that, although going to 50m grid-length does not greatly change many of the bulk properties (mixing height, heat flux profiles, etc.) the spatial structure of the overturning is significantly different. This is confirmed with spectral analysis which shows that the 50m model resolves significantly more of the energetic eddies, and a length scale analysis that shows the 50m and 100m models produce convective structures 2-3 times larger than observed. We conclude that, for the MetUM, model grid-lengths of order 100m may well be sufficient for predicting many bulk and statistical properties of convective boundary layers however the details of the spatial structures around convective overturning in these situations are likely to be still under-resolved. Spin up artefacts emanating from the inflow boundary of the model are investigated by comparing with a smaller 100m grid-length domain which is more dominated by such effects. These manifest themselves as along wind boundary layer rolls which produce a less realistic comparison with the lidar observations. A stability analysis is presented in order to better understand the formation of these rolls

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution

Long Term Monitoring of CFA Energy Pile Schemes in the UK

Energy pile schemes involve the use of structural foundations as heat exchangers in a ground source heat pump system. Such schemes are attractive, as they reduce energy consumption compared with traditional building heating and cooling systems. As energy prices increase and governments introduce subsidies they are also proving increasingly economically attractive. Additionally, energy piles can contribute to reducing the carbon dioxide emissions associated with a development. However, this approach to heating and cooling building remains relatively novel and the lack of published long term performance data remains a barrier to further implementation. Two issues remain to be addressed by long term monitoring. First, the need for a database of operational energy piles schemes were the energy performance is proven over many years. Secondly, availability of long term datasets of pile thermal behavior that can be used to validate design approaches and tools and hence encourage less conservative design practices. This paper presents the initial results from a study aimed at tackling these issues through long term instrumentation and monitoring of two energy pile schemes in the United Kingdom

Single particle multipole expansions from Micromagnetic Tomography

Micromagnetic tomography aims at reconstructing large numbers of individual magnetizations of magnetic particles from combining high-resolution magnetic scanning techniques with micro X-ray computed tomography (microCT). Previous work demonstrated that dipole moments can be robustly inferred, and mathematical analysis showed that the potential field of each particle is uniquely determined. Here, we describe a mathematical procedure to recover higher orders of the magnetic potential of the individual magnetic particles in terms of their spherical harmonic expansions (SHE). We test this approach on data from scanning superconducting quantum interference device microscopy and microCT of a reference sample. For particles with high signal-to-noise ratio of the magnetic scan we demonstrate that SHE up to order $n=3$ can be robustly recovered. This additional level of detail restricts the possible internal magnetization structures of the particles and provides valuable rock magnetic information with respect to their stability and reliability as paleomagnetic remanence carriers. Micromagnetic tomography therefore enables a new approach for detailed rock magnetic studies on large ensembles of individual particles.Comment: 21 pages, 4 Figures, 3 Tables. For Supplemental Material see "Ancillary files" in this arxiv websit

Scorch marks from the sky

Daily sunshine duration is commonly reported at weather stations. Beyond the basic duration report, more information is available from scorched cards of Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders, such as the estimation of direct-beam solar irradiance. Sunshine cards therefore potentially provide information on sky state, as inferred from solar-radiation data. Some sites have been operational since the late 19th century, hence sunshine cards potentially provide underexploited historical data on sky state. Sunshine cards provide an example of an archive source yielding data beyond the measurements originally sought