Modeling high-resolution climate change impacts on wheat and maize in Italy

Abstract The Mediterranean basin has been identified as a prominent hotspot of climate change, with expected negative impacts on crop productivity, among others. Given the primary role that agriculture has to sustain cultural values, economic opportunities, and food security, it is crucial to identify specific risks in agriculture due to climate change, which can address more effective adaptation strategies and policies to cope with climate change. This study aims to evaluate the high-resolution impacts of climate change on the length of the growing cycle and yield of durum wheat, common wheat, and maize in Italy by using the CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize crop models implemented in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software. A digital platform (GIS-DSSAT) was developed to couple crop simulation models with dynamically downscaled climate projections at high resolution for Italy, which can better represent the Italian landscape complexity and the spatial distribution of different pedological and crop management features, providing more detailed information on the expected impacts on crops respect to previous studies at a coarser resolution. The projections have been extended for two climate change scenarios and accounting for uncertainty, either considering or not the potential direct effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]). Results show that climate change may affect Italian cereal production in the medium to long term periods. Maize is the main affected crop, with yield reductions homogeneously distributed from North to South Italy. Wheat yield is expected to decrease mainly in southern Italy, while northern Italy may benefit from higher precipitation regimes. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations may partially offset the negative impact posed by climate change and increase the benefits in the northern regions, especially for common and durum wheat

Climate change impact on durum wheat in Sardinia

This study involve the assessment of potential climate change impact and changing in ambient carbon dioxide (CO2) levels on production and phenology for two of the most important varieties of durum wheat at four experimental sites in Sardinia, differents for soil, climate conditions and management practices, and provide directions for possible adaptation strategies. The CERES-Wheat model in combination with a stochastic Weather Generator (WG) were used to quantify the climate change impacts on wheat growth and production. The synthetic weather series, representing the future climates, are generated by modifying the WG parameters according to the features of a set of GCM-based climate change scenarios. Twenty-seven climate change scenarios were generated, for each experimental site, by pattern scaling thecnique, considering three values of climate sensitivity and four emission scenarios. The use of this approach allowed to explore a wide range of possible future change in climate and give a more likely crop impact assessment. The results obtained show changes in wheat yield and phenology differents for climate change scenarios, varieties and locations analysed. As in other similar studies, it is projected that the interaction of multiple factors, that seem to cancel each other out, may diluite the climate change impacts. The adaptation strategy considered (shift in planting date) seems a usefull strategy in response to climate change

Health Literacy, Socioeconomic Status and Vaccination Uptake: A Study on Influenza Vaccination in a Population-Based Sample

Background: Health Literacy (HL) has been recently hypothesized to affect the relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and health conditions. However, to date no study has yet assessed the potential contribution of HL in the pathway through which SES affects influenza vaccination status. We aim to examine the relationships among HL, SES factors, and influenza vaccination uptake in Tuscan (Italy) residents belonging to different high-risk groups (HRGs) for influenza. Methods: The study was performed within the Tuscan population sample selected in the Italian Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2017–2018. HL was assessed using the Italian version of the 6-items European Health Literacy Survey Questionnaire (HLS-EU-Q6). Mediation analyses were conducted using SES variables as independent variables, influenza vaccination status as dependent variable and HL as mediator variable. Results: A total of 3278 people belonged to HRGs for influenza. In the whole sample, 19.4% of the participants were vaccinated against influenza. Participants who were not employed or had a poor financial status were more likely to be vaccinated against influenza (OR 1.56, 95%CI 1.26–1.94, p < 0.001, and OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.00–1.48, p = 0.047 respectively). HL did not mediate the relationship of any of the independent variables with influenza vaccination status. Conclusions: Some SES determinants resulted to influence influenza vaccination uptake, while HL did not affect the likelihood of influenza vaccination uptake among HRGs. Universal health care systems, as in the case of Italy, offering influenza vaccination free of charge to HRGs help in reducing inequalities and mitigating HL demands

Co-design of sectoral climate services based on seasonal prediction information in the Mediterranean

We present in this contribution the varied experiences gathered in the co-design of a sectoral climate services collection, developed in the framework of the MEDSCOPE project, which have in common the application of seasonal predictions for the Mediterranean geographical and climatic region. Although the region is affected by low seasonal predictability limiting the skill of seasonal forecasting systems, which historically has hindered the development of downstream services, the project was originally conceived to exploit windows of opportunity with enhanced skill for developing and evaluating climate services in various sectors with high societal impact in the region: renewable energy, hydrology, and agriculture and forestry. The project also served as the scientific branch of the WMO-led Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum (MedCOF) that had as objective -among others- partnership strengthening on climate services between providers and users within the Mediterranean region. The diversity of the MEDSCOPE experiences in co-designing shows the wide range of involvement and engagement of users in this process across the Mediterranean region, which benefits from the existing solid and organized MedCOF community of climate services providers and users. A common issue among the services described here -and also among other prototypes developed in the project- was related with the communication of forecasts uncertainty and skill for efficiently informing decision-making in practice. All MEDSCOPE project prototypes make use of an internally developed software package containing process-based methods for synthesising seasonal forecast data, as well as basic and advanced tools for obtaining tailored products. Another challenge assumed by the project refers to the demonstration of the economic, social, and environmental value of predictions provided by these MEDSCOPE prototypes.The work described in this paper has received funding from the MEDSCOPE project co-funded by the European Commission as part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, grant agreement 690462

"Aging", sessualità e cinema nella cultura italiana del secondo dopoguerra

Special issue on "aging" and sexuality in the Italian culture

Structured reporting for fibrosing lung disease: a model shared by radiologist and pulmonologist

Objectives: To apply the Delphi exercise with iterative involvement of radiologists and pulmonologists with the aim of defining a structured reporting template for high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) of patients with fibrosing lung disease (FLD). Methods: The writing committee selected the HRCT criteria\ue2\u80\u94the Delphi items\ue2\u80\u94for rating from both radiology panelists (RP) and pulmonology panelists (PP). The Delphi items were first rated by RPs as \ue2\u80\u9cessential\ue2\u80\u9d, \ue2\u80\u9coptional\ue2\u80\u9d, or \ue2\u80\u9cnot relevant\ue2\u80\u9d. The items rated \ue2\u80\u9cessential\ue2\u80\u9d by &lt; 80% of the RP were selected for the PP rating. The format of reporting was rated by both RP and PP. Results: A total of 42 RPs and 12 PPs participated to the survey. In both Delphi round 1 and 2, 10/27 (37.7%) items were rated \ue2\u80\u9cessential\ue2\u80\u9d by more than 80% of RP. The remaining 17/27 (63.3%) items were rated by the PP in round 3, with 2/17 items (11.7%) rated \ue2\u80\u9cessential\ue2\u80\u9d by the PP. PP proposed additional items for conclusion domain, which were rated by RPs in the fourth round. Poor consensus was observed for the format of reporting. Conclusions: This study provides a template for structured report of FLD that features essential items as agreed by expert thoracic radiologists and pulmonologists

Semen molecular and cellular features: these parameters can reliably predict subsequent ART outcome in a goat model

Currently, the assessment of sperm function in a raw or processed semen sample is not able to reliably predict sperm ability to withstand freezing and thawing procedures and in vivo fertility and/or assisted reproductive biotechnologies (ART) outcome. The aim of the present study was to investigate which parameters among a battery of analyses could predict subsequent spermatozoa in vitro fertilization ability and hence blastocyst output in a goat model. Ejaculates were obtained by artificial vagina from 3 adult goats (Capra hircus) aged 2 years (A, B and C). In order to assess the predictive value of viability, computer assisted sperm analyzer (CASA) motility parameters and ATP intracellular concentration before and after thawing and of DNA integrity after thawing on subsequent embryo output after an in vitro fertility test, a logistic regression analysis was used. Individual differences in semen parameters were evident for semen viability after thawing and DNA integrity. Results of IVF test showed that spermatozoa collected from A and B lead to higher cleavage rates (0 < 0.01) and blastocysts output (p < 0.05) compared with C. Logistic regression analysis model explained a deviance of 72% (p < 0.0001), directly related with the mean percentage of rapid spermatozoa in fresh semen (p < 0.01), semen viability after thawing (p < 0.01), and with two of the three comet parameters considered, i.e tail DNA percentage and comet length (p < 0.0001). DNA integrity alone had a high predictive value on IVF outcome with frozen/thawed semen (deviance explained: 57%). The model proposed here represents one of the many possible ways to explain differences found in embryo output following IVF with different semen donors and may represent a useful tool to select the most suitable donors for semen cryopreservation

Optimizing Genetic Parameters of CSM-CERES Wheat and CSM-CERES Maize for Durum Wheat, Common Wheat, and Maize in Italy

The expected increase in population and the pressure posed by climate change on agricultural production require the assessment of future yield levels and the evaluation of the most suitable management options to minimize climate risk and promote sustainable agricultural production. Crop simulation models are widely applied tools to predict crop development and production under different management practices and environmental conditions. The aim of this study was to parameterize CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize models, implemented in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software, to predict phenology and grain yield of durum wheat, common wheat, and maize in different Italian environments. A 10-year (2001&ndash;2010) dataset was used to optimize the genetic parameters for selected varieties of each species and to evaluate the models considering several statistical indexes. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method, and trial and error approach were used to optimize the cultivar-specific parameters of these models. Results show good model performances in reproducing crop phenology and yield for the analyzed crops, especially with the parameters optimized with the trial and error procedure. Highly significant (p &le; 0.001) correlations between observed and simulated data were found for both anthesis and yield in model calibration and evaluation (p &le; 0.01 for grain yield of maize in model evaluation). Root mean square error (RMSE) values range from six to nine days for anthesis and from 1.1 to 1.7 t ha&minus;1 for crop yield and index of agreement (d-index) from 0.96 to 0.98 for anthesis and from 0.8 to 0.87 for crop yield. The set of genetic parameters obtained for durum wheat, common wheat, and maize may be applied in further analyses at field, regional, and national scales to guide operational (farmers), strategic, and tactical (policy makers) decisions

The argument structure of verbs of hitting and breaking in Italian

This paper aims to present a corpus-driven analysis of the argument structure of some semantic classes of Italian verbs (i.e. hit and break-verbs) according to a costructionist and a usage-based approach. Each verb is analyzed according to the following features: i) prototypical and peculiar constructions, ii) argument alternances, iii) patterns common to semantic classes. Ultimately, the analysis shows that argument structure is not determined once and forever in an abstract way, but is built on the basis of the linguistic/situational context