Summer soil-precipitation coupling in South America

The soil moisture memory contributes to atmospheric variability and seasonal predictability and could potentially affect the development of the South American Monsoon System. The relative importance of the local land surface feedbacks and the large-scale dynamical processes during the different phases of the monsoon are still largely unknown. We examine the impacts of land surface conditions during the mature monsoon phase with the Rossby Centre Atmospheric regional model through calculating the coupling strength between soil moisture, evapotranspiration and precipitation. Regions of high coupling strength (hotspots) are identified and analysed focusing on the link between soil moisture-evapotranspiration coupling and soil moisture-precipitation coupling, the relation between the coupling strength and seasonal predictability and the hotspots importance for extreme precipitation events. La Plata Basin and northeastern Brazil are identified as hotspots due to evapotranspiration recycling. A region within the South Atlantic Convergence Zone is identified as a hotspot of precipitation explained by moisture advection. Extreme precipitation events are repressed in parts of La Plata Basin when the link between precipitation and soil moisture is cut through using prescribed soil moisture.Fil: Sörensson, Anna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Menendez, Claudio Guillermo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin

¿Te ha tocado? El sorteo llega a la política de Madrid.

In early 2019 Madrid launched the first permanent citizen participation scheme in which members are chosen by lot: the Observatory of the City. Although the scheme was abandoned by the new government after the May 2019 elections, the Madrid experiment raises important questions about democracy. The project is another example of the growing prominence that the draw has acquired in many countries, as an ideal element to organise and order the participation of people in political affairs. In this paper we describe the first steps of this scheme and also highlight the features that make the draw in Madrid a unique experience both because of the implications of the use of the draw, and from the point of view of similar schemes that are being carried out in other parts of the world.Madrid ha puesto en marcha, desde inicios del año 2019, la primera experiencia de participación ciudadana permanente cuyos miembros son elegidos por sorteo, el Observatorio de la Ciudad. A pesar de que la experiencia fue abandonada por el nuevo Gobierno después de las elecciones de mayo del 2019, la experiencia madrileña plantea importantes cuestiones sobre la democracia. Esta experiencia se suma al creciente protagonismo que ha adquirido el sorteo en muchos países, como un elemento idóneo para organizar y ordenar la participación de la gente en los asuntos políticos. En este trabajo exponemos los primeros pasos de esta experiencia, así como destacamos los rasgos que hacen del sorteo en Madrid una experiencia singular, tanto por las implicaciones que tiene el uso del sorteo como desde el punto de vista de las experiencias similares que se hacen en otras partes del mundo

The effect of suspended sentences on imprisonment

This study finds that although suspended sentences were introduced as an alternative to prison, in New South Wales they appear to have had the opposite effect. Abstract Aim: To see whether the introduction of suspended sentences reduced the number of offenders receiving a fulltime sentence of imprisonment. Method: The number of persons receiving a prison sentence was regressed against the number receiving a suspended sentence while controlling for changes in the total number of proven offenders and the monthly variability using multiple linear regression with ARIMA errors. The data set used for the analysis consisted of the monthly number of persons imprisoned, persons given a suspended sentence and proven offenders from January 2002 to December 2013. Results: Every 10 additional offenders given suspended sentences was associated with an extra 3-4 offenders sent to prison. Conclusion: Although suspended sentences were introduced as an alternative to prison, they appear to have had the opposite effect

Sex Differences in Obesity Rates in Poor Countries: Evidence from South Africa

Globally, men and women face markedly different risks of obesity. In all but of handful of (primarily Western European) countries, obesity is more prevalent among women than men. In this paper, we examine several potential explanations for this phenomenon. We analyze differences between men and women in reports and effects of the proximate causes of obesity -- physical exertion and food intake -- and the underlying causes of obesity -- childhood and adult poverty, depression, and attitudes about obesity. We evaluate the evidence for each explanation using data collected in an African township outside of Cape Town. Three factors explain the greater obesity rates we find among women. Women who were nutritionally deprived as children are significantly more likely to be obese as adults, while men who were deprived as children face no greater risk. In addition, women of higher adult socioeconomic status are significantly more likely to be obese, which is not true for men. These two factors can fully explain the difference in obesity rates we find in our sample. Finally (and more speculatively), women's perceptions of an 'ideal' female body are larger than men's perceptions of the 'ideal' male body, and individuals with larger 'ideal' body images are significantly more likely to be obese.

Serum proteome profiling identifies novel and powerful markers of cystic fibrosis liver disease.

Cystic Fibrosis associated liver disease (CFLD) develops in approximately 30% of CF patients. However, routine sensitive diagnostic tools for CFLD are lacking. Within this study, we aimed to identify new experimental biomarkers for the detection of CFLD. 45 CF patients were included in the study and received transient elastography. Differential regulation of 220 different serum proteins was assessed in a subgroup of patients with and without CFLD. Most interesting candidate proteins were further quantified and validated by ELISA in the whole patient cohort. To assess a potential relation of biomarker expression to the degree of hepatic fibrosis, serum biomarkers were further determined in 18 HCV patients where liver histology was available. 43 serum proteins differed at least 2-fold in patients with CFLD compared to those without liver disease as identified in proteome profiling. In ELISA quantifications, TIMP-4 and Endoglin were significantly up-regulated in patients with CFLD as diagnosed by clinical guidelines or increased liver stiffness. Pentraxin-3 was significantly decreased in patients with CFLD. Serum TIMP-4 and Endoglin showed highest values in HCV patients with liver cirrhosis compared to those with fibrosis but without cirrhosis. At a cut-off value of 6.3 kPa, transient elastography compassed a very high diagnostic accuracy and specificity for the detection of CFLD. Among the biomarkers, TIMP-4 and Endoglin exhibited a high diagnostic accuracy for CFLD. Diagnostic sensitivities and negative predictive values were increased when elastography and TIMP-4 and Endoglin were combined for the detection of CFLD. Serum TIMP-4 and Endoglin are increased in CFLD and their expression correlates with hepatic staging. Determination of TIMP-4 and Endoglin together with transient elastography can increase the sensitivity for the non-invasive diagnosis of CFLD

The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone pollution

Climate change can impact air quality by altering the atmospheric conditions that determine pollutant concentrations. Over large regions of the U.S., projected changes in climate are expected to favor formation of ground-level ozone and aggravate associated health effects. However, modeling studies exploring air quality-climate interactions have often overlooked the role of natural variability, a major source of uncertainty in projections. Here we use the largest ensemble simulation of climate-induced changes in air quality generated to date to assess its influence on estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone. We find that natural variability can significantly alter the robustness of projections of the future climate's effect on ozone pollution. In this study, a 15 year simulation length minimum is required to identify a distinct anthropogenic-forced signal. Therefore, we suggest that studies assessing air quality impacts use multidecadal simulations or initial condition ensembles. With natural variability, impacts attributable to climate may be difficult to discern before midcentury or under stabilization scenarios