The Radio Afterglow and the Host Galaxy of the X-Ray Rich GRB 981226

We report the discovery of a radio transient VLA 232937.2-235553, coincident with the proposed X-ray afterglow for the gamma-ray burst GRB 981226. This GRB has the highest ratio of X-ray to gamma-ray fluence of all the GRBs detected by BeppoSAX so far and yet no corresponding optical transient was detected. The radio light curve of VLA 232937.2-235553 is qualitatively similar to that of several other radio afterglows. At the sub-arcsecond position provided by the radio detection, optical imaging reveals an extended R=24.9 mag object, which we identify as the host galaxy of GRB 981226. Afterglow models which invoke a jet-like geometry for the outflow or require an ambient medium with a radial density dependence, such as that produced by a wind from a massive star, are both consistent with the radio data. Furthermore, we show that the observed properties of the radio afterglow can explain the absence of an optical transient without the need for large extinction local to the GRB.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters. Thirteen pages. Three Postscript figure

Tidal Stabilization of Rigidly Rotating, Fully Relativistic Neutron Stars

It is shown analytically that an external tidal gravitational field increases the secular stability of a fully general relativistic, rigidly rotating neutron star that is near marginal stability, protecting it against gravitational collapse. This stabilization is shown to result from the simple fact that the energy $\delta M(Q,R)$ required to raise a tide on such a star, divided by the square of the tide's quadrupole moment $Q$, is a decreasing function of the star's radius $R$, $(d/dR)[\delta M(Q,R)/Q^2]<0$ (where, as $R$ changes, the star's structure is changed in accord with the star's fundamental mode of radial oscillation). If $(d/dR)[\delta M(Q,R)/Q^2]$ were positive, the tidal coupling would destabilize the star. As an application, a rigidly rotating, marginally secularly stable neutron star in an inspiraling binary system will be protected against secular collapse, and against dynamical collapse, by tidal interaction with its companion. The ``local-asymptotic-rest-frame'' tools used in the analysis are somewhat unusual and may be powerful in other studies of neutron stars and black holes interacting with an external environment. As a byproduct of the analysis, in an appendix the influence of tidal interactions on mass-energy conservation is elucidated.Comment: Revtex, 10 pages, 2 figures; accepted for publication in Physical Review D. Revisions: Appendix rewritten to clarify how, in Newtonian gravitation theory, ambiguity in localization of energy makes interaction energy ambiguous but leaves work done on star by tidal gravity unambiguous. New footnote 1 and Refs. [11] and [19

Calculating partial expected value of perfect information via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculations can quantify the value of learning about particular subsets of uncertain parameters in decision models. Published case studies have used different computational approaches. This article examines the computation of partial EVPI estimates via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. The mathematical definition shows 2 nested expectations, which must be evaluated separately because of the need to compute a maximum between them. A generalized Monte Carlo sampling algorithm uses nested simulation with an outer loop to sample parameters of interest and, conditional upon these, an inner loop to sample remaining uncertain parameters. Alternative computation methods and shortcut algorithms are discussed and mathematical conditions for their use considered. Maxima of Monte Carlo estimates of expectations are biased upward, and the authors show that the use of small samples results in biased EVPI estimates. Three case studies illustrate 1) the bias due to maximization and also the inaccuracy of shortcut algorithms 2) when correlated variables are present and 3) when there is nonlinearity in net benefit functions. If relatively small correlation or nonlinearity is present, then the shortcut algorithm can be substantially inaccurate. Empirical investigation of the numbers of Monte Carlo samples suggests that fewer samples on the outer level and more on the inner level could be efficient and that relatively small numbers of samples can sometimes be used. Several remaining areas for methodological development are set out. A wider application of partial EVPI is recommended both for greater understanding of decision uncertainty and for analyzing research priorities

Which doctors and with what problems contact a specialist service for doctors? A cross sectional investigation

Background: In the United Kingdom, specialist treatment and intervention services for doctors are underdeveloped. The MedNet programme, created in 1997 and funded by the London Deanery, aims to fill this gap by providing a self-referral, face-to-face, psychotherapeutic assessment service for doctors in London and South-East England. MedNet was designed to be a low-threshold service, targeting doctors without formal psychiatric problems. The aim of this study was to delineate the characteristics of doctors utilising the service, to describe their psychological morbidity, and to determine if early intervention is achieved. Methods: A cross-sectional study including all consecutive self-referred doctors (n = 121, 50% male) presenting in 2002–2004 was conducted. Measures included standardised and bespoke questionnaires both self-report and clinician completed. The multi-dimensional evaluation included: demographics, CORE (CORE-OM, CORE-Workplace and CORE-A) an instrument designed to evaluate the psychological difficulties of patients referred to outpatient services, Brief Symptom Inventory to quantify caseness and formal psychiatric illness, and Maslach Burnout Inventory. Results: The most prevalent presenting problems included depression, anxiety, interpersonal, self-esteem and work-related issues. However, only 9% of the cohort were identified as severely distressed psychiatrically using this measure. In approximately 50% of the sample, problems first presented in the preceding year. About 25% were on sick leave at the time of consultation, while 50% took little or no leave in the prior 12 months. A total of 42% were considered to be at some risk of suicide, with more than 25% considered to have a moderate to severe risk. There were no significant gender differences in type of morbidity, severity or days off sick. Conclusion: Doctors displayed high levels of distress as reflected in the significant proportion of those who were at some risk of suicide; however, low rates of severe psychiatric illness were detected. These findings suggest that MedNet clients represent both ends of the spectrum of severity, enabling early clinical engagement for a significant proportion of cases that is of importance both in terms of personal health and protecting patient care, and providing a timely intervention for those who are at risk, a group for whom rapid intervention services are in need and an area that requires further investigation in the UK

Retrograde semaphorin-plexin signalling drives homeostatic synaptic plasticity.

Homeostatic signalling systems ensure stable but flexible neural activity and animal behaviour. Presynaptic homeostatic plasticity is a conserved form of neuronal homeostatic signalling that is observed in organisms ranging from Drosophila to human. Defining the underlying molecular mechanisms of neuronal homeostatic signalling will be essential in order to establish clear connections to the causes and progression of neurological disease. During neural development, semaphorin-plexin signalling instructs axon guidance and neuronal morphogenesis. However, semaphorins and plexins are also expressed in the adult brain. Here we show that semaphorin 2b (Sema2b) is a target-derived signal that acts upon presynaptic plexin B (PlexB) receptors to mediate the retrograde, homeostatic control of presynaptic neurotransmitter release at the neuromuscular junction in Drosophila. Further, we show that Sema2b-PlexB signalling regulates presynaptic homeostatic plasticity through the cytoplasmic protein Mical and the oxoreductase-dependent control of presynaptic actin. We propose that semaphorin-plexin signalling is an essential platform for the stabilization of synaptic transmission throughout the developing and mature nervous system. These findings may be relevant to the aetiology and treatment of diverse neurological and psychiatric diseases that are characterized by altered or inappropriate neural function and behaviour

Prevalence of childhood disability and the characteristics and circumstances of disabled children in the UK : secondary analysis of the Family Resources Survey

Background: Robust data on the prevalence of childhood disability and the circumstances and characteristics of disabled children is crucial to understanding the relationship between impairment and social disadvantage. It is also crucial for public policy development aimed at reducing the prevalence of childhood disability and providing appropriate and timely service provision. This paper reports prevalence rates for childhood disability in the United Kingdom (UK) and describes the social and household circumstances of disabled children, comparing these where appropriate to those of non-disabled children. Methods: Data were generated from secondary analysis of the Family Resources Survey, a national UK cross-sectional survey, (2004/5) which had data on 16,012 children aged 0-18 years. Children were defined as disabled if they met the Disability Discrimination Act (DDA) definition (1995 and 2005). Frequency distributions and cross-tabulations were run to establish prevalence estimates, and describe the circumstances of disabled children. To establish the association between individual social and material factors and childhood disability when other factors were controlled for, logistic regression models were fitted on the dependent variable 'DDA defined disability'. Results: 7.3% (CI 6.9, 7.7) of UK children were reported by as disabled according to the DDA definition. Patterns of disability differed between sexes with boys having a higher rate overall and more likely than girls to experience difficulties with physical coordination; memory, concentration and learning; communication. Disabled children lived in different personal situations from their non-disabled counterparts, and were more likely to live with low-income, deprivation, debt and poor housing. This was particularly the case for disabled children from black/minority ethnic/ mixed parentage groups and lone-parent households. Childhood disability was associated with lone parenthood and parental disability and these associations persisted when social disadvantage was controlled for. Conclusion: These analyses suggest that UK disabled children experience higher levels of poverty and personal and social disadvantage than other children. Further research is required to establish accurate prevalence estimates of childhood disability among different black and minority ethnic groups and to understand the associations between childhood disability and lone parenthood and the higher rates of sibling and parental disability in households with disabled children

Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox data

The celebrated Abakaliki smallpox data have appeared numerous times in the epidemic modelling literature, but in almost all cases only a specific subset of the data is considered. The only previous analysis of the full data set relied on approximation methods to derive a likelihood and did not assess model adequacy. The data themselves continue to be of interest due to concerns about the possible re-emergence of smallpox as a bioterrorism weapon. We present the first full Bayesian statistical analysis using data-augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which avoid the need for likelihood approximations and which yield a wider range of results than previous analyses. We also carry out model assessment using simulation-based methods. Our findings suggest that the outbreak was largely driven by the interaction structure of the population, and that the introduction of control measures was not the sole reason for the end of the epidemic. We also obtain quantitative estimates of key quantities including reproduction numbers

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Adoptive gay father families: parent-child relationships and children's psychological adjustment

Findings are presented on a U.K. study of 41 gay father families, 40 lesbian mother families, and 49 heterosexual parent families with an adopted child aged 3–9 years. Standardized interview and observational and questionnaire measures of parental well-being, quality of parent–child relationships, child adjustment, and child sex-typed behavior were administered to parents, children, and teachers. The findings indicated more positive parental well-being and parenting in gay father families compared to heterosexual parent families. Child externalizing problems were greater among children in heterosexual families. Family process variables, particularly parenting stress, rather than family type were found to be predictive of child externalizing problems. The findings contribute to theoretical understanding of the role of parental gender and parental sexual orientation in child development

Quantitative localized proton-promoted dissolution kinetics of calcite using scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM)

Scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM) has been used to determine quantitatively the kinetics of proton-promoted dissolution of the calcite (101̅4) cleavage surface (from natural “Iceland Spar”) at the microscopic scale. By working under conditions where the probe size is much less than the characteristic dislocation spacing (as revealed from etching), it has been possible to measure kinetics mainly in regions of the surface which are free from dislocations, for the first time. To clearly reveal the locations of measurements, studies focused on cleaved “mirror” surfaces, where one of the two faces produced by cleavage was etched freely to reveal defects intersecting the surface, while the other (mirror) face was etched locally (and quantitatively) using SECM to generate high proton fluxes with a 25 μm diameter Pt disk ultramicroelectrode (UME) positioned at a defined (known) distance from a crystal surface. The etch pits formed at various etch times were measured using white light interferometry to ascertain pit dimensions. To determine quantitative dissolution kinetics, a moving boundary finite element model was formulated in which experimental time-dependent pit expansion data formed the input for simulations, from which solution and interfacial concentrations of key chemical species, and interfacial fluxes, could then be determined and visualized. This novel analysis allowed the rate constant for proton attack on calcite, and the order of the reaction with respect to the interfacial proton concentration, to be determined unambiguously. The process was found to be first order in terms of interfacial proton concentration with a rate constant k = 6.3 (± 1.3) × 10–4 m s–1. Significantly, this value is similar to previous macroscopic rate measurements of calcite dissolution which averaged over large areas and many dislocation sites, and where such sites provided a continuous source of steps for dissolution. Since the local measurements reported herein are mainly made in regions without dislocations, this study demonstrates that dislocations and steps that arise from such sites are not needed for fast proton-promoted calcite dissolution. Other sites, such as point defects, which are naturally abundant in calcite, are likely to be key reaction sites