Estimates of genetic parameters of distal limb fracture and superficial digital flexor tendon injury in UK Thoroughbred racehorses

A retrospective cohort study of distal limb fracture and superficial digital flexor tendon (SDFT) injury in Thoroughbred racehorses was conducted using health records generated by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) between 2000 and 2010. After excluding records of horses that had both flat and jump racing starts, repeated records were reduced to a single binary record per horse (<i>n</i> = 66,507, 2982 sires), and the heritability of each condition was estimated using residual maximum likelihood (REML) with animal logistic regression models. Similarly, the heritability of each condition was estimated for the flat racing and jump racing populations separately. Bivariate mixed models were used to generate estimates of genetic correlations between SDFT injury and distal limb fracture. The heritability of distal limb fracture ranged from 0.21 to 0.37. The heritability of SDFT injury ranged from 0.31 to 0.34. SDFT injury and distal limb fracture were positively genetically correlated. These findings suggest that reductions in the risk of the conditions studied could be attempted using targeted breeding strategies

Arguments using ontological and causal knowledge (FoIKS 2014)

International audienceWe explore an approach to reasoning about causes via argumentation. We consider a causal model for a physical system, and we look for arguments about facts. Some arguments are meant to provide explanations of facts whereas some challenge these explanations and so on. At the root of argumentation here, are causal links ({A_1, ... ,A_n} causes B) and also ontological links (c_1 is_a} c_2). We introduce here a logical approach which provides a candidate explanation ({A_1, ... ,A_n} explains {B_1, ... ,B_m}) by resorting to an underlying causal link substantiated with appropriate ontological links. Argumentation is then at work from these various explanation links. A case study is developed: a severe storm Xynthia that devastated a county in France in 2010, with an unaccountably high number of casualties

Truthmakers and modality

This paper attempts to locate, within an actualist ontology, truthmakers for modal truths: truths of the form or . In section 1 I motivate the demand for substantial truthmakers for modal truths. In section 2 I criticise Armstrong’s account of truthmakers for modal truths. In section 3 I examine essentialism and defend an account of what makes essentialist attributions true, but I argue that this does not solve the problem of modal truth in general. In section 4 I discuss, and dismiss, a theistic account of the source of modal truth proposed by Alexander Pruss. In section 5 I offer a means of (dis)solving the problem

Physics in the Real Universe: Time and Spacetime

The Block Universe idea, representing spacetime as a fixed whole, suggests the flow of time is an illusion: the entire universe just is, with no special meaning attached to the present time. This view is however based on time-reversible microphysical laws and does not represent macro-physical behaviour and the development of emergent complex systems, including life, which do indeed exist in the real universe. When these are taken into account, the unchanging block universe view of spacetime is best replaced by an evolving block universe which extends as time evolves, with the potential of the future continually becoming the certainty of the past. However this time evolution is not related to any preferred surfaces in spacetime; rather it is associated with the evolution of proper time along families of world linesComment: 28 pages, including 9 Figures. Major revision in response to referee comment

Prevalence, survival analysis and multimorbidity of chronic diseases in the general veterinarian-attended horse population of the UK

he average age of the global human population is increasing, leading to increased interest in the effects of chronic disease and multimorbidity on health resources and patient welfare. It has been posited that the average age of the general veterinarian-attended horse population of the UK is also increasing, and therefore it could be assumed that chronic diseases and multimorbidity would pose an increasing risk here also. However, evidence for this trend in ageing is very limited, and the current prevalence of many chronic diseases, and of multimorbidity, is unknown. Using text mining of first-opinion electronic medical records from seven veterinary practices around the UK, Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard modelling, we were able to estimate the apparent prevalence among veterinarian-attended horses of nine chronic diseases, and to assess their relative effects on median life expectancy following diagnosis. With these methods we found evidence of increasing population age. Multimorbidity affected 1.2% of the study population, and had a significant effect upon survival times, with co-occurrence of two diseases, and three or more diseases, leading to 6.6 and 21.3 times the hazard ratio compared to no chronic disease, respectively. Laminitis was involved in 74% of cases of multimorbidity. The population of horses attended by UK veterinarians appears to be aging, and chronic diseases and their co-occurrence are common features, and as such warrant further investigation