Classical HLA-DRB1 and DPB1 alleles account for HLA associations with primary biliary cirrhosis

Susceptibility to primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is strongly associated with HLA region polymorphisms. To determine if associations can be explained by classical HLA determinants we studied Italian 676 cases and 1440 controls with genotyped with dense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for which classical HLA alleles and amino acids were imputed. Although previous genome-wide association studies and our results show stronger SNP associations near DQB1, we demonstrate that the HLA signals can be attributed to classical DRB1 and DPB1 genes. Strong support for the predominant role of DRB1 is provided by our conditional analyses. We also demonstrate an independent association of DPB1. Specific HLA-DRB1 genes (*08, *11 and *14) account for most of the DRB1 association signal. Consistent with previous studies, DRB1*08 (p = 1.59 × 10(−11)) was the strongest predisposing allele where as DRB1*11 (p = 1.42 × 10(−10)) was protective. Additionally DRB1*14 and the DPB1 association (DPB1*03:01) (p = 9.18 × 10(−7)) were predisposing risk alleles. No signal was observed in the HLA class 1 or class 3 regions. These findings better define the association of PBC with HLA and specifically support the role of classical HLA-DRB1 and DPB1 genes and alleles in susceptibility to PBC

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified