Enhanced research program on the long-range climatic effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide -- A continuation

In the past year, the authors have reached several important milestones in the modeling and analysis of increased greenhouse-gas-caused climate change. Some of this work was highlighted in the recent update of the 1992 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The milestones are (1) analysis of the ongoing control and transient experiments out to 70 years, (2) development and testing of a new-generation coupled model, (3) analysis of natural variability and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate change, (4) examination of the role of cirrus albedo in global climate sensitivity, (5) participation in various model intercomparisons, and (6) assistance with an exhibit on the greenhouse effect at the Franklin Institute Museum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Although this latter activity was not part of the planned research, they felt that the contribution to the exhibit would benefit science education)

Efficient dynamical downscaling of general circulation models using continuous data assimilation

Continuous data assimilation (CDA) is successfully implemented for the first time for efficient dynamical downscaling of a global atmospheric reanalysis. A comparison of the performance of CDA with the standard grid and spectral nudging techniques for representing long- and short-scale features in the downscaled fields using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is further presented and analyzed. The WRF model is configured at 25km horizontal resolution and is driven by 250km initial and boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields. Downscaling experiments are performed over a one-month period in January, 2016. The similarity metric is used to evaluate the performance of the downscaling methods for large and small scales. Similarity results are compared for the outputs of the WRF model with different downscaling techniques, NCEP reanalysis, and Final Analysis. Both spectral nudging and CDA describe better the small-scale features compared to grid nudging. The choice of the wave number is critical in spectral nudging; increasing the number of retained frequencies generally produced better small-scale features, but only up to a certain threshold after which its solution gradually became closer to grid nudging. CDA maintains the balance of the large- and small-scale features similar to that of the best simulation achieved by the best spectral nudging configuration, without the need of a spectral decomposition. The different downscaled atmospheric variables, including rainfall distribution, with CDA is most consistent with the observations. The Brier skill score values further indicate that the added value of CDA is distributed over the entire model domain. The overall results clearly suggest that CDA provides an efficient new approach for dynamical downscaling by maintaining better balance between the global model and the downscaled fields

Absolute Proper Motions to B~22.5: IV. Faint, Low Velocity White Dwarfs and the White Dwarf Population Density Law

The reduced proper motion diagram (RPMD) for a complete sample of faint stars with high accuracy proper motions in the North Galactic Pole field SA57 is investigated. Eight stars with very large reduced proper motions are identified as faint white dwarf candidates. We discriminate these white dwarf candidates from the several times more numerous QSOs based on proper motion and variability. We discuss the implausibility that these stars could be any kind of survey contaminant. If {\it bona fide} white dwarfs, the eight candidates found here represent a portion of the white dwarf population hitherto uninvestigated by previous surveys by virtue of the faint magnitudes and low proper motions. The newly discovered stars suggest a disk white dwarf scaleheight larger than the values of 250-350 pc typically assumed in assessments of the local white dwarf density. Both a <V/V_{max}> and a more complex maximum likelihood analysis of the spatial distribution of our likely thin disk white dwarfs yield scaleheights of 400-600 pc while at the same time give a reasonable match to the local white dwarf volume density found in other surveys. Our results could have interesting implications for white dwarfs as potential MACHO objects. We can place some direct constraints (albeit weak ones) on the contribution of halo white dwarfs to the dark matter of the Galaxy. Moreover, the elevated scale height that we measure for the thin disk could alter the interpretation of microlensing results to the extent of making white dwarfs untenable as the dominant MACHO contributor. (Abridged)Comment: 38 pages, 5 figures, to appear in April Ap

Multidecadal variability in Atlas cedar growth in northwest Africa during the last 850 years: implications for dieback and conservation of an endangered species

Widespread forest dieback is a phenomenon of global concern that requires an improved understanding of the relationship between tree growth and climate to support conservation efforts. One priority for conservation is the Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica), an endangered species exhibiting dieback throughout its North African range. In this study, we evaluate the long-term context for recent dieback and develop a projection of future C. atlantica growth by exploring the periodic variability of its growth through time. First, we present a new C. atlantica tree- ring chronology (1150–2013 CE) from the Middle Atlas mountains, Morocco. We then compare the new chronology to existing C. atlantica chronologies in Morocco and use principal components analysis (PCA) to isolate the common periodic signal from the seven longest available records (PCA7, 1271–1984 CE) in the Middle and High Atlas portions of the C. atlantica range. PCA7 captures 55.7% of the variance and contains significant multidecadal ( ̃95yr, ̃57yr, ̃21yr) periodic components, revealed through spectral and wavelet analyses. Parallel analyses of historical climate data (1901–2016 CE) suggests that the multidecadal growth signal ori- ginates primarily in growing season (spring and summer) precipitation variability, compounded by slow- changing components of summer and winter temperatures. Finally, we model the long-term growth patterns between 1271–1984 CE using a small number (three to four) of harmonic components, illustrating that sup- pressed growth since the 1970s – a factor implicated in the dieback of this species – is consistent with recurrent climatically-driven growth declines. Forward projection of this model suggests two climatically-favourable periods for growth in the 21st century that may enhance current conservation actions for the long-term survival of the C. atlantica in the Middle and High Atlas mountains

Enhanced research program on the long-range climatic effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and sulfate aerosols. Final report

Consistent with the objectives to extract as much as possible from existing models on the role of the oceans in the greenhouse effect and to improve various aspects of the coupled system, the authors made significant progress in three areas. (1) In a series of manuscripts, they documented how the El Nino-Southern Oscillation operates in the model and how it is enhanced with increased carbon dioxide. (2) In studies with collaborators Branstator, Karoly, and Karl, they explored the possible carbon dioxide ``fingerprint`` in zonal mean temperatures, the effects of changes in extratropical teleconnections, and the regional effects of low-frequency variability and climate change. (3) They experimented with an advanced version of the NCAR community climate model (CCM0) that also includes the Ramanathan and Collins cirrus albedo feedback mechanism. This model was run with a mixed layer and was tested with the 1{degree} 20-level Semtner and Chervin ocean model. The latter includes the Arctic Ocean and dynamic sea ice, both showing realistic results. The authors completed the coupling of the advanced models. The dynamic ocean model was a 1{degree}x1{degree} version of the Semtner-Chervin 1/2{degree}x1/2{degree} ocean model with 20 vertical levels. The 1{degree}x1{degree} version of the Semtner-Chervin model used in this research explicitly resolved some aspects of the mesoscale eddies as did the parent model. The new coupled model system for greenhouse gas simulations on climate change was tested on multidecadal runs

Climate data challenges in the 21st century

International audienceClimate data are dramatically increasing in volume and complexity, just as the users of these data in the scientific community and the public are rapidly increasing in number. A new paradigm of more open, user-friendly data access is needed to ensure that society can reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change, while at the same time exploiting opportunities that will occur