Which Way to Go? Observations Based on Discussion on Global Perspectives and Energy Strategies

This short paper is a glimpse of the recent lively discussion on securing future energy demand. The debate, which resorts to technological and economic arguments, uses mutually exclusive concepts, such as "hard" and "soft" technology, in order to differentiate between opposing approaches to the evaluation of technological benefits and risks. This is a summary of some conclusions that emerged from such discussions of D. Meadows, co-author of the Club of Rome study "Limits to Growth," Amory Lovins of "Friends of the Earth," and members of the Energy Systems Program. The paper concludes with a short list of research topics which could help clarify the implications of alternate paths

Is the Pale Blue Dot unique? Optimized photometric bands for identifying Earth-like exoplanets

The next generation of ground and space-based telescopes will image habitable planets around nearby stars. A growing literature describes how to characterize such planets with spectroscopy, but less consideration has been given to the usefulness of planet colors. Here, we investigate whether potentially Earth-like exoplanets could be identified using UV-visible-to-NIR wavelength broadband photometry (350-1000 nm). Specifically, we calculate optimal photometric bins for identifying an exo-Earth and distinguishing it from uninhabitable planets including both Solar System objects and model exoplanets. The color of some hypothetical exoplanets - particularly icy terrestrial worlds with thick atmospheres - is similar to Earth's because of Rayleigh scattering in the blue region of the spectrum. Nevertheless, subtle features in Earth's reflectance spectrum appear to be unique. In particular, Earth's reflectance spectrum has a 'U-shape' unlike all our hypothetical, uninhabitable planets. This shape is partly biogenic because O2-rich, oxidizing air is transparent to sunlight, allowing prominent Rayleigh scattering, while ozone absorbs visible light, creating the bottom of the 'U'. Whether such uniqueness has practical utility depends on observational noise. If observations are photon limited or dominated by astrophysical sources (zodiacal light or imperfect starlight suppression), then the use of broadband visible wavelength photometry to identify Earth twins has little practical advantage over obtaining detailed spectra. However, if observations are dominated by dark current then optimized photometry could greatly assist preliminary characterization. We also calculate the optimal photometric bins for identifying extrasolar Archean Earths, and find that the Archean Earth is more difficult to unambiguously identify than a modern Earth twin.Comment: 10 figures, 38 page

Identifying Planetary Biosignature Impostors: Spectral Features of CO and O4 Resulting from Abiotic O2/O3 Production

O2 and O3 have been long considered the most robust individual biosignature gases in a planetary atmosphere, yet multiple mechanisms that may produce them in the absence of life have been described. However, these abiotic planetary mechanisms modify the environment in potentially identifiable ways. Here we briefly discuss two of the most detectable spectral discriminants for abiotic O2/O3: CO and O4. We produce the first explicit self-consistent simulations of these spectral discriminants as they may be seen by JWST. If JWST-NIRISS and/or NIRSpec observe CO (2.35, 4.6 um) in conjunction with CO2 (1.6, 2.0, 4.3 um) in the transmission spectrum of a terrestrial planet it could indicate robust CO2 photolysis and suggest that a future detection of O2 or O3 might not be biogenic. Strong O4 bands seen in transmission at 1.06 and 1.27 um could be diagnostic of a post-runaway O2-dominated atmosphere from massive H-escape. We find that for these false positive scenarios, CO at 2.35 um, CO2 at 2.0 and 4.3 um, and O4 at 1.27 um are all stronger features in transmission than O2/O3 and could be detected with SNRs $\gtrsim$ 3 for an Earth-size planet orbiting a nearby M dwarf star with as few as 10 transits, assuming photon-limited noise. O4 bands could also be sought in UV/VIS/NIR reflected light (at 0.345, 0.36, 0.38, 0.445, 0.475, 0.53, 0.57, 0.63, 1.06, and 1.27 um) by a next generation direct-imaging telescope such as LUVOIR/HDST or HabEx and would indicate an oxygen atmosphere too massive to be biologically produced.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted to the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Attacking Group Protocols by Refuting Incorrect Inductive Conjectures

Automated tools for finding attacks on flawed security protocols often fail to deal adequately with group protocols. This is because the abstractions made to improve performance on fixed 2 or 3 party protocols either preclude the modelling of group protocols all together, or permit modelling only in a fixed scenario, which can prevent attacks from being discovered. This paper describes Coral, a tool for finding counterexamples to incorrect inductive conjectures, which we have used to model protocols for both group key agreement and group key management, without any restrictions on the scenario. We will show how we used Coral to discover 6 previously unknown attacks on 3 group protocols

Abiotic Ozone and Oxygen in Atmospheres Similar to Prebiotic Earth

The search for life on planets outside our solar system will use spectroscopic identification of atmospheric biosignatures. The most robust remotely-detectable potential biosignature is considered to be the detection of oxygen (O_2) or ozone (O_3) simultaneous to methane (CH_4) at levels indicating fluxes from the planetary surface in excess of those that could be produced abiotically. Here, we use an altitude-dependent photochemical model with the enhanced lower boundary conditions necessary to carefully explore abiotic O_2 and O_3 production on lifeless planets with a wide variety of volcanic gas fluxes and stellar energy distributions. On some of these worlds, we predict limited O_2 and O_3 build up, caused by fast chemical production of these gases. This results in detectable abiotic O_3 and CH_4 features in the UV-visible, but no detectable abiotic O_2 features. Thus, simultaneous detection of O_3 and CH_4 by a UV-visible mission is not a strong biosignature without proper contextual information. Discrimination between biological and abiotic sources of O_2 and O_3 is possible through analysis of the stellar and atmospheric context - particularly redox state and O atom inventory - of the planet in question. Specifically, understanding the spectral characteristics of the star and obtaining a broad wavelength range for planetary spectra should allow more robust identification of false positives for life. This highlights the importance of wide spectral coverage for future exoplanet characterization missions. Specifically, discrimination between true- and false-positives may require spectral observations that extend into infrared wavelengths, and provide contextual information on the planet's atmospheric chemistry.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. 43 pages, 6 figure

Detecting and Constraining N2_2 Abundances in Planetary Atmospheres Using Collisional Pairs

Characterizing the bulk atmosphere of a terrestrial planet is important for determining surface pressure and potential habitability. Molecular nitrogen (N$_2$) constitutes the largest fraction of Earth$'$s atmosphere and is likely to be a major constituent of many terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres. Due to its lack of significant absorption features, N$_2$ is extremely difficult to remotely detect. However, N$_2$ produces an N$_2$-N$_2$ collisional pair, (N$_2$)$_2$, which is spectrally active. Here we report the detection of (N$_2$)$_2$ in Earth$'$s disk-integrated spectrum. By comparing spectra from NASA$'$s EPOXI mission to synthetic spectra from the NASA Astrobiology Institute$'$s Virtual Planetary Laboratory three-dimensional spectral Earth model, we find that (N$_2$)$_2$ absorption produces a ~35$\%$ decrease in flux at 4.15 $\mu$m. Quantifying N$_2$ could provide a means of determining bulk atmospheric composition for terrestrial exoplanets and could rule out abiotic O$_2$ generation, which is possible in rarefied atmospheres. To explore the potential effects of (N$_2$)$_2$ in exoplanet spectra, we used radiative transfer models to generate synthetic emission and transit transmission spectra of self-consistent N$_2$-CO$_2$-H$_2$O atmospheres, and analytic N$_2$-H$_2$ and N$_2$-H$_2$-CO$_2$ atmospheres. We show that (N$_2$)$_2$ absorption in the wings of the 4.3 $\mu$m CO$_2$ band is strongly dependent on N$_2$ partial pressures above 0.5 bar and can significantly widen this band in thick N$_2$ atmospheres. The (N$_2$)$_2$ transit transmission signal is up to 10 ppm for an Earth-size planet with an N$_2$-dominated atmosphere orbiting within the HZ of an M5V star and could be substantially larger for planets with significant H$_2$ mixing ratios.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. 46 pages, 12 figures, 3 table

Discrete Model of Ideological Struggle Accounting for Migration

A discrete in time model of ideological competition is formulated taking into account population migration. The model is based on interactions between global populations of non-believers and followers of different ideologies. The complex dynamics of the attracting manifolds is investigated. Conversion from one ideology to another by means of (i) mass media influence and (ii) interpersonal relations is considered. Moreover a different birth rate is assumed for different ideologies, the rate being assumed to be positive for the reference population, made of initially non-believers. Ideological competition can happen in one or several regions in space. In the latter case, migration of non-believers and adepts is allowed; this leads to an enrichment of the ideological dynamics. Finally, the current ideological situation in the Arab countries and China is commented upon from the point of view of the presently developed mathematical model. The massive forced conversion by Ottoman Turks in the Balkans is briefly discussed.Comment: 24 pages, with 5 figures and 52 refs.; prepared for a Special issue of Advances in Complex System

Detection of Ocean Glint and Ozone Absorption Using LCROSS Earth Observations

The Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) observed the distant Earth on three occasions in 2009. These data span a range of phase angles, including a rare crescent phase view. For each epoch, the satellite acquired near-infrared and mid-infrared full-disk images, and partial-disk spectra at 0.26-0.65 microns (R~500) and 1.17-2.48 microns (R~50). Spectra show strong absorption features due to water vapor and ozone, which is a biosignature gas. We perform a significant recalibration of the UV-visible spectra and provide the first comparison of high-resolution visible Earth spectra to the NASA Astrobiology Institute's Virtual Planetary Laboratory three-dimensional spectral Earth model. We find good agreement with the observations, reproducing the absolute brightness and dynamic range at all wavelengths for all observation epochs, thus validating the model to within the ~10% data calibration uncertainty. Data-model comparisons reveal a strong ocean glint signature in the crescent phase dataset, which is well matched by our model predictions throughout the observed wavelength range. This provides the first observational test of a technique that could be used to determine exoplanet habitability from disk-integrated observations at visible and near-infrared wavelengths, where the glint signal is strongest. We examine the detection of the ozone 255 nm Hartley and 400-700 nm Chappuis bands. While the Hartley band is the strongest ozone feature in Earth's spectrum, false positives for its detection could exist. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for future exoplanet characterization missions.Comment: Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal; recalibration data for LCROSS VSP can be found at: https://sites.google.com/site/tdrobinsonscience/science/moo