Distributions You Can Count On …But What’s the Point?

The Poisson regression model remains an important tool in the econometric analysis of count data. In a pioneering contribution to the econometric analysis of such models, Lung-Fei Lee presented a specification test for a Poisson model against a broad class of discrete distributions sometimes called the Katz family. Two members of this alternative class are the binomial and negative binomial distributions, which are commonly used with count data to allow for under- and over-dispersion, respectively. In this paper we explore the structure of other distributions within the class and their suitability as alternatives to the Poisson model. Potential difficulties with the Katz likelihood leads us to investigate a class of point optimal tests of the Poisson assumption against the alternative of over-dispersion in both the regression and intercept only cases. In a simulation study, we compare score tests of ‘Poisson-ness’ with various point optimal tests, based on the Katz family, and conclude that it is possible to choose a point optimal test which is better in the intercept only case, although the nuisance parameters arising in the regression case are problematic. One possible cause is poor choice of the point at which to optimize. Consequently, we explore the use of Hellinger distance to aid this choice. Ultimately we conclude that score tests remain the most practical approach to testing for over-dispersion in this context.</jats:p

Approximate Bayesian forecasting

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become increasingly prominent as a method for conducting parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, most notably those characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the use of ABC not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a means of generating probabilistic forecasts; or for conducting what we refer to as `approximate Bayesian forecasting'. The four key issues explored are: i) the link between the theoretical behavior of the ABC posterior and that of the ABC-based predictive; ii) the use of proper scoring rules to measure the (potential) loss of forecast accuracy when using an approximate rather than an exact predictive; iii) the performance of approximate Bayesian forecasting in state space models; and iv) the use of forecasting criteria to inform the selection of ABC summaries in empirical settings. The primary finding of the paper is that ABC can provide a computationally efficient means of generating probabilistic forecasts that are nearly identical to those produced by the exact predictive, and in a fraction of the time required to produce predictions via an exact method. y identical to those produced by the exact predictive, and in a fraction of the time required to produce predictions via an exact method

Muscles in “Concert”: Study of Primary Motor Cortex Upper Limb Functional Topography

BACKGROUND: Previous studies with Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) have focused on the cortical representation of limited group of muscles. No attempts have been carried out so far to get simultaneous recordings from hand, forearm and arm with TMS in order to disentangle a 'functional' map providing information on the rules orchestrating muscle coupling and overlap. The aim of the present study is to disentangle functional associations between 12 upper limb muscles using two measures: cortical overlapping and cortical covariation of each pair of muscles. Interhemispheric differences and the influence of posture were evaluated as well. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: TMS mapping studies of 12 muscles belonging to hand, forearm and arm were performed. Findings demonstrate significant differences between the 66 pairs of muscles in terms of cortical overlapping: extremely high for hand-forearm muscles and very low for arm vs hand/forearm muscles. When right and left hemispheres were compared, overlapping between all possible pairs of muscles in the left hemisphere (62.5%) was significantly higher than in the right one (53.5% ). The arm/hand posture influenced both measures of cortical association, the effect of Position being significant [p = .021] on overlapping, resulting in 59.5% with prone vs 53.2% with supine hand, but only for pairs of muscles belonging to hand and forearm, while no changes occurred in the overlapping of proximal muscles with those of more distal districts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Larger overlapping in the left hemisphere could be related to its lifetime higher training of all twelve muscles studied with respect to the right hemisphere, resulting in larger intra-cortical connectivity within primary motor cortex. Altogether, findings with prone hand might be ascribed to mechanisms facilitating coupling of muscles for object grasping and lifting -with more proximal involvement for joint stabilization- compared to supine hand facilitating actions like catching. TMS multiple-muscle mapping studies permit a better understanding of motor control and 'plastic' reorganization of motor system

Classification of patients with knee osteoarthritis in clinical phenotypes: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

<div><p>Objectives</p><p>The existence of phenotypes has been hypothesized to explain the large heterogeneity characterizing the knee osteoarthritis. In a previous systematic review of the literature, six main phenotypes were identified: Minimal Joint Disease (MJD), Malaligned Biomechanical (MB), Chronic Pain (CP), Inflammatory (I), Metabolic Syndrome (MS) and Bone and Cartilage Metabolism (BCM). The purpose of this study was to classify a sample of individuals with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) into pre-defined groups characterized by specific variables that can be linked to different disease mechanisms, and compare these phenotypes for demographic and health outcomes.</p><p>Methods</p><p>599 patients were selected from the OAI database FNIH at 24 months’ time to conduct the study. For each phenotype, cut offs of key variables were identified matching the results from previous studies in the field and the data available for the sample. The selection process consisted of 3 steps. At the end of each step, the subjects classified were excluded from the further classification stages. Patients meeting the criteria for more than one phenotype were classified separately into a ‘complex KOA’ group.</p><p>Results</p><p>Phenotype allocation (including complex KOA) was successful for 84% of cases with an overlap of 20%. Disease duration was shorter in the MJD while the CP phenotype included a larger number of Women (81%). A significant effect of phenotypes on WOMAC pain (F = 16.736 p <0.001) and WOMAC physical function (F = 14.676, p < 0.001) was identified after controlling for disease duration.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>This study signifies the feasibility of a classification of KOA subjects in distinct phenotypes based on subgroup-specific characteristics.</p></div

Optimal cut-off criteria for duplex ultrasound for the diagnosis of restenosis in stented carotid arteries: Review and protocol for a diagnostic study

Background: Carotid angioplasty with stenting is a relatively new, increasingly used, less-invasive treatment for the treatment of symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. It is being evaluated in ongoing and nearly finished randomized trials. An important factor in the evaluation of stents is the occurrence of in-stent restenosis. An un-stented carotid artery is likely to have a more elastic vessel wall than a stented one, even if stenosis is present. Therefore, duplex ultrasound cut-off criteria for the degrees of an in-stent stenosis, based on blood velocity parameters, are probably different from the established cut-offs used for un-stented arteries. Routine criteria can not be applied to stented arteries but new criteria need to be established for this particular purpose. Methods/Design: Current literature was systematically reviewed. From the selected studies, the following data were extracted: publication year, population size, whether the study was prospective, which reference test was used, and if there was an indication for selection bias and for verification bias in particular. Previous studies often were retrospective, or the reference test (DSA or CTA) was carried out only when a patient was suspected of having restenosis at DUS, which may result in verification bias. Results: In general, the cut-off values are higher than those reported for unstented arteries. Previous studies often were retrospective, or the reference test (DSA or CTA) was carried out only when a patient was suspected of having restenosis at DUS, which may result in verification bias. Discussion: To address the deficiencies of the existing studies, we propose a prospective cohort study nested within the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS), an international multi-centre trial in which over 1,700 patients have been randomised between stenting and CEA. In this cohort we will enrol a minimum of 300 patients treated with a stent. All patients undergo regular DUS examination at the yearly follow-up visit according to the ICSS protocol. To avoid verification bias, an additional computed tomography angiography (CTA) will be performed as a reference test in all consecutive patients, regardless of the degree of stenosis on the initial DUS test

The challenges of communicating research evidence in practice: perspectives from UK health visitors and practice nurses

&lt;p&gt;Background: Health practitioners play a pivotal role in providing patients with up-to-date evidence and health information. Evidence-based practice and patient-centred care are transforming the delivery of healthcare in the UK. Health practitioners are increasingly balancing the need to provide evidence-based information against that of facilitating patient choice, which may not always concur with the evidence base. There is limited research exploring how health practitioners working in the UK, and particularly those more autonomous practitioners such as health visitors and practice nurses working in community practice settings, negotiate this challenge. This research provides a descriptive account of how health visitors and practice nurses negotiate the challenges of communicating health information and research evidence in practice.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods: A total of eighteen in-depth telephone interviews were conducted in the UK between September 2008 and May 2009. The participants comprised nine health visitors and nine practice nurses, recruited via adverts on a nursing website, posters at a practitioner conference and through recommendation. Thematic analysis, with a focus on constant comparative method, was used to analyse the data.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: The data were grouped into three main themes: communicating evidence to the critically-minded patient; confidence in communicating evidence; and maintaining the integrity of the patient-practitioner relationship. These findings highlight some of the daily challenges that health visitors and practice nurses face with regard to the complex and dynamic nature of evidence and the changing attitudes and expectations of patients. The findings also highlight the tensions that exist between differing philosophies of evidence-based practice and patient-centred care, which can make communicating about evidence a daunting task.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: If health practitioners are to be effective at communicating research evidence, we suggest that more research and resources need to be focused on contextual factors, such as how research evidence is negotiated, appraised and communicated within the dynamic patient-practitioner relationship.&lt;/p&gt

Body image, body dissatisfaction and weight status in south asian children: a cross-sectional study

Background Childhood obesity is a continuing problem in the UK and South Asian children represent a group that are particularly vulnerable to its health consequences. The relationship between body dissatisfaction and obesity is well documented in older children and adults, but is less clear in young children, particularly South Asians. A better understanding of this relationship in young South Asian children will inform the design and delivery of obesity intervention programmes. The aim of this study is to describe body image size perception and dissatisfaction, and their relationship to weight status in primary school aged UK South Asian children. Methods Objective measures of height and weight were undertaken on 574 predominantly South Asian children aged 5-7 (296 boys and 278 girls). BMI z-scores, and weight status (underweight, healthy weight, overweight or obese) were calculated based on the UK 1990 BMI reference charts. Figure rating scales were used to assess perceived body image size (asking children to identify their perceived body size) and dissatisfaction (difference between perceived current and ideal body size). The relationship between these and weight status were examined using multivariate analyses. Results Perceived body image size was positively associated with weight status (partial regression coefficient for overweight/obese vs. non-overweight/obese was 0.63 (95% CI 0.26-0.99) and for BMI z-score was 0.21 (95% CI 0.10-0.31), adjusted for sex, age and ethnicity). Body dissatisfaction was also associated with weight status, with overweight and obese children more likely to select thinner ideal body size than healthy weight children (adjusted partial regression coefficient for overweight/obese vs. non-overweight/obese was 1.47 (95% CI 0.99-1.96) and for BMI z-score was 0.54 (95% CI 0.40-0.67)). Conclusions Awareness of body image size and increasing body dissatisfaction with higher weight status is established at a young age in this population. This needs to be considered when designing interventions to reduce obesity in young children, in terms of both benefits and harms

Understanding the Interplay Among Regulatory Self-Efficacy, Moral Disengagement, and Academic Cheating Behaviour During Vocational Education: A Three-Wave Study

The literature has suggested that to understand the diffusion of unethical conduct in the workplace, it is important to investigate the underlying processes sustaining engagement in misbehaviour and to study what occurs during vocational education. Drawing on social-cognitive theory, in this study, we longitudinally examined the role of two opposite dimensions of the self-regulatory moral system, regulatory self-efficacy and moral disengagement, in influencing academic cheating behaviour. In addition, in line with the theories highlighting the bidirectional relationship between cognitive processes and behaviour, we aimed to also examine the reciprocal influence of behaviour on these dimensions over time. Overall, no previous studies have examined the longitudinal interplay between these variables. The sample included 866 (62.8% female) nursing students who were assessed three times annually from the beginning of their vocational education. The findings from a cross-lagged model confirmed that regulatory self-efficacy and moral disengagement have opposite influences on cheating behaviour, that regulatory self-efficacy negatively influences not only the engagement in misconduct but also the justification mechanisms that allow the divorce between moral standards and action, and that moral disengagement and cheating behaviour reciprocally support each other over time. Specifically, not only did moral disengagement influence cheating behaviour even when controlling for its prior levels, but also cheating behaviour affected moral disengagement one year later, controlling for its prior levels. These findings suggest that recourse to wrongdoing could gradually lead to further normalising this kind of behaviour and morally desensitising individuals to misconduct

Chronic non-specific low back pain - sub-groups or a single mechanism?

Copyright 2008 Wand and O'Connell; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: Low back pain is a substantial health problem and has subsequently attracted a considerable amount of research. Clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of a variety of interventions for chronic non-specific low back pain indicate limited effectiveness for most commonly applied interventions and approaches. Discussion: Many clinicians challenge the results of clinical trials as they feel that this lack of effectiveness is at odds with their clinical experience of managing patients with back pain. A common explanation for this discrepancy is the perceived heterogeneity of patients with chronic non-specific low back pain. It is felt that the effects of treatment may be diluted by the application of a single intervention to a complex, heterogeneous group with diverse treatment needs. This argument presupposes that current treatment is effective when applied to the correct patient. An alternative perspective is that the clinical trials are correct and current treatments have limited efficacy. Preoccupation with sub-grouping may stifle engagement with this view and it is important that the sub-grouping paradigm is closely examined. This paper argues that there are numerous problems with the sub-grouping approach and that it may not be an important reason for the disappointing results of clinical trials. We propose instead that current treatment may be ineffective because it has been misdirected. Recent evidence that demonstrates changes within the brain in chronic low back pain sufferers raises the possibility that persistent back pain may be a problem of cortical reorganisation and degeneration. This perspective offers interesting insights into the chronic low back pain experience and suggests alternative models of intervention. Summary: The disappointing results of clinical research are commonly explained by the failure of researchers to adequately attend to sub-grouping of the chronic non-specific low back pain population. Alternatively, current approaches may be ineffective and clinicians and researchers may need to radically rethink the nature of the problem and how it should best be managed

Bolus characteristics based on Magnetic Resonance Angiography

BACKGROUND: A detailed contrast bolus propagation model is essential for optimizing bolus-chasing Computed Tomography Angiography (CTA). Bolus characteristics were studied using bolus-timing datasets from Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) for adaptive controller design and validation. METHODS: MRA bolus-timing datasets of the aorta in thirty patients were analyzed by a program developed with MATLAB. Bolus characteristics, such as peak position, dispersion and bolus velocity, were studied. The bolus profile was fit to a convolution function, which would serve as a mathematical model of bolus propagation in future controller design. RESULTS: The maximum speed of the bolus in the aorta ranged from 5–13 cm/s and the dwell time ranged from 7–13 seconds. Bolus characteristics were well described by the proposed propagation model, which included the exact functional relationships between the parameters and aortic location. CONCLUSION: The convolution function describes bolus dynamics reasonably well and could be used to implement the adaptive controller design