Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment

The objectives of this paper are: first, to quantify the stabilization welfare gains from commitment; second, to examine how commitment to an optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium and third, to find a simple interest rate rule that closely approximates the optimal commitment one. We utilize an influential empirical micro-founded DSGE model, the euro area model of Smets and Wouters (2003), and a quadratic approximation of the representative household’s utility as the welfare criterion. Importantly, we impose the effect of a nominal interest rate zero lower bound. In contrast with previous studies, we find significant stabilization gains from commitment: our central estimate is a 0.4 - 0.5% equivalent permanent increase in consumption, but in a variant with a higher degree of price stickiness, gains of over 2% are found. We also find that a simple optimized commitment rule with the nominal interest rate responding to current inflation and the real wage closely mimics the optimal rule. JEL Classification: E52, E37, E58commitment, discretion, Monetary rules, welfare gains

Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty.

Recent interest in ‘Risk Management’ has highlighted the relevance of Bayesian analysis for robust monetary- policy making. This paper sets out a comprehensive methodology for designing policy rules inspired by such considerations. We design rules that are robust with respect to model uncertainty facing both the policy-maker and private sector. We apply our methodology to three simple interest-rate rules: inflation-forecast- based (IFB) rules with a discrete forward horizon, one targeting a discounted sum of forward inflation, and a current wage inflation rule. We use an estimated DSGE model of the euro area and estimated measures of structured exogenous and parameter uncertainty for the exercise. We find that IFB rules with a long horizon perform poorly with or without robust design. Our discounted future targeting rule performs much better, indicating that policy can be highly forward-looking without compromising stabilization. The wage inflation rule dominates whether it is designed to have good robust properties or not. JEL Classification: E52, E37, E58Interest-rate rules, Robustness, structured uncertainty

Frequency-dependent and correlational selection pressures have conflicting consequences for assortative mating in a color-polymorphic lizard, Uta stansburiana

Acknowledgments We would like to thank the numerous undergraduate researchers involved with this project for their invaluable assistance in lizard rearing and data collection. We also thank D. Haisten, A. Runemark, Y. Takahashi, and M. Verzijden for insightful comments on the manuscript. This project was funded by National Science Foundation DEBOS-15973 to A.G.M. and B.R.S.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Alley coppice: combining willow SRC with poplar and cherry trees

PosterShort Rotation willow Coppice (SRC) is an important source of biomass energy in Ireland. Growing and intensively managing trees at wide spacing generates high value timber, sequesters carbon and delivers other ecosystem services. The alley coppice system combines the production of SRC with high value timber trees. Three alley coppice experiments were established to study the interaction of SRC with high value timber trees. In Experiment 1 the cherry variety - willow interaction is investigated: 5 willow varieties (and a mixture of all 5); (‘Resolution’, ‘Beagle’, ‘Endeavour’, ‘Olaf’ and ‘Terra Nova’) interact with rows of clonal wild cherry: ‘Neso’, ‘Pluto’, ‘Saturn’, ‘Hermes’ and ‘Concordia’ and one control of seedlings. The willow is planted in double rows 0.75m by 1.5m apart. Cherry trees are planted at an intra-row tree to tree spacing of 2.5m and inter-row spacing of 12.75m and alley widths of 1m & 2 m. In Experiment 2, 18 year old poplars (‘Hoogwoorst’, ‘Beaupre’, ‘Gebec’ ‘Trichobel’) are 5m apart in 14m wide alleys, planted with each of the 7 willow varieties (6 monoculture – as above in Experiment 1 but including ‘Tora’ & one mixed willow treatment simulating commercial planting). In Experiment 3, cherry are inter-planted along an existing commercial SRC as single tree plots in a linear randomised design. Cherry trees are 2.5m apart in rows; each is 2.5 m from nearest willow stool. Each block contains 5 sub plots. Each sub plot contains 26 tree genotypes: 22 German varieties, 2 French varieties and seedlings as controls. For each experiment the growth and yield of the tree and SRC components and their interactions will be measured and evaluated

Sustainable degradation of carbon tetrafluoride to non-corrosive useful products by incorporating reduced electron mediator within electro-scrubbing

The degradation of CF4 gas using existing technologies produces other types of greenhouse gas (CO2) and corrosive side products. The main aim of this study is to degrade CF4 gas at room temperature into useful products without producing corrosive side products by mediated electrochemical reduction (MER) process using an electrogenerated Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1− mediator. Initial studies on the electrolytic reduction of the hetero-bimetallic complex in catholyte solution at anodized Ti cathode was monitored by oxidation/reduction potential (ORP) variation whether the Cu2+ or Ni2+ was reduced in the Cu2+[Ni2+(CN)4] and confirmed by electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy the Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1− formation. The concentration variation of Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1− during CF4 injection demonstrated the degradation of CF4 followed the MER by electrogenerated Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1−. Maximum removal efficiency of CF4 using electroscrubbing process was 96% at room temperature. Through the variation in gas phase parameters, the gas phase mass transfer coefficient was calculated that can facilitate scale up the developed process. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy analysis in both the gas and solution phases showed that CH3CH2OH was the main product that formed during the removal of CF4 by electrogenerated Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1− at electroscrubber along with a small amount of CF3CH3 intermediate. Importantly, this mechanism also avoided formation of the corrosive product HF

Electrochemically generated bimetallic reductive mediator Cu1+ [Ni2+ (CN) 4] 1− for the degradation of CF4 to ethanol by electro-scrubbing

Remediation of electronic gas CF4 using commercially available technologies results in another kind of greenhouse gas and corrosive side products. This investigation aimed to develop CF4 removal at room temperature with formation of useful product by attempting an electrogenerated Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1− mediator. The initial electrolysis of the bimetallic complex at the anodized Ti cathode demonstrated Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1− formation, which was confirmed by additional electron spin resonance results. The degradation of CF4 followed mediated electrochemical reduction by electrogenerated Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1−. The removal efficiency of CF4 of 95% was achieved by this electroscrubbing process at room temperature. The spectral results of online and offline Fourier transform infrared analyzer, either in gas or in solution phase, demonstrated that the product formed during the removal of CF4 by electrogenerated Cu1+[Ni2+(CN)4]1− by electroscrubbing was ethanol (CH3CH2OH), with a small amount of trifluoroethane (CF3CH3) intermediate

Territory acquisition mediates the influence of predators and climate on juvenile red squirrel survival

Juvenile survival to first breeding is a key life‐history stage for all taxa. Survival through this period can be particularly challenging when it coincides with harsh environmental conditions such as a winter climate or food scarcity, leading to highly variable cohort survival. However, the small size and dispersive nature of juveniles generally make studying their survival more difficult.In territorial species, a key life‐history event is the acquisition of a territory. A territory is expected to enhance survival, but how it does so is not often identified. We tested how the timing of territory acquisition influenced the winter survival of juvenile North American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, hereafter red squirrels, and how the timing of this event mediated the sources of mortality. We hypothesized that securing a territory prior to when food resources become available would reduce juvenile susceptibility to predation and climatic factors overwinter.Using 27 years of data on the survival of individually marked juvenile red squirrels, we tested how the timing of territory acquisition influenced survival, whether the population density of red squirrel predators and mean temperature overwinter were related to individual survival probability, and if territory ownership mediated these effects.Juvenile red squirrel survival was lower in the years of high predator abundance and in colder winters. Autumn territory owners were less susceptible to lynx Lynx canadensis and possibly mustelid Mustela and Martes spp., predation. Autumn territory owners had lower survival in colder winters, but surprisingly non‐owners had higher survival in cold winters.Our results show how the timing of a life‐history event like territory acquisition can directly affect survival and also mediate the effects of biotic and abiotic factors later in life. This engenders a better understanding of the fitness consequences of the timing of key life‐history events.The authors examine how territories, predators and climate influenced the winter survival of juvenile North American red squirrels over three decades. Territory owners survived better and were less affected by lynx abundance, but territories did not improve survival over colder winters. They provide insights into the understudied life stage of first independence.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155889/1/jane13209_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155889/2/jane13209.pd