Multiple origins of melanism in two species of North American tree squirrel ( Sciurus )

Abstract: Background: While our understanding of the genetic basis of convergent evolution has improved there are still many uncertainties. Here we investigate the repeated evolution of dark colouration (melanism) in eastern fox squirrels (Sciurus niger; hereafter “fox squirrels”) and eastern gray squirrels (S. carolinensis; hereafter “gray squirrels”). Results: We show that convergent evolution of melanism has arisen by independent genetic mechanisms in two populations of the fox squirrel. In a western population, melanism is associated with a 24 bp deletion in the melanocortin-1-receptor gene (MC1RΔ24 allele), whereas in a south-eastern population, melanism is associated with a point substitution in the agouti signalling protein gene causing a Gly121Cys mutation. The MC1R∆24 allele is also associated with melanism in gray squirrels, and, remarkably, all the MC1R∆24 haplotypes are identical in the two species. Evolutionary analyses show that the MC1R∆24 haplotype is more closely related to other MC1R haplotypes in the fox squirrel than in the gray squirrel. Modelling supports the possibility of gene flow between the two species. Conclusions: The presence of the MC1R∆24 allele and melanism in gray squirrels is likely due to introgression from fox squirrels, although we cannot completely rule out alternative hypotheses including introgression from gray squirrels to fox squirrels, or an ancestral polymorphism. Convergent melanism in these two species of tree squirrels has evolved by at least two and probably three different evolutionary routes

Accuracy assessment of ISI-MIP modelled flows in the Hidukush-Karakoram-Himalayan basins

Large Asian rivers heading in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan mountains, and whose streamflow includes significant snow-melt and glacier-melt components, may be highly susceptible to climate warming and pattern changes. Millions of people depend on these streamflows for agriculture and power generation. Reliable predictions of future water availability are therefore needed for planning under a changing climate, and depend on the quality of hydro-climatic modelling. ISI-MIP provides global hydrological modelling results, and need validation at regional scale. This study evaluates the accuracy of modelled flows from the hydrological models used in ISI-MIP, in various sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) and for the reference period 1985-1998. The modelled flows are based on six hydrological models, which are: i) H08, ii) VIC, iii) WaterGAP, iv) WBM, v) MPI-HM, vi) PCR-GLOBWB. Of these models, H08 and VIC are energy-based hydrological models, while the others are temperature-based hydrological models. WBM and MPI are not suitable for the UIB, due to significant under-estimation (by 70-90%) of measured flows by their modelled flows. The remaining four models provide consistent, but still significantly under-estimated flows (up to 60% of measured flows) in all sub-basins, except the Kharmong basin. Monthly differences between modelled and measured flows vary between sub-basins, but with noticeable over-estimation in winter-spring months and under-estimation during summer months. Accuracy of the bias-corrected precipitation data sets (based on five GCMs) used in the ISI-MIP hydrological models has been assessed, using a basin-wide water balance assessment method. This method shows that all precipitation data sets significantly under-estimate precipitation in the UIB, particularly in the Karakoram sub-basins. The selected ISI-MIP hydrological models have used precipitation data which are under-estimates, which may be a main reason for under-estimated flows. ISI-MIP hydrological modelling needs to use the best available precipitation data for the UIB, but other input data and calibration parameters also need revision. An important message from this study is that caution must be exercised in selecting precipitation data sets and hydrological models in alpine regions such as the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas

Computational Method for Phase Space Transport with Applications to Lobe Dynamics and Rate of Escape

Lobe dynamics and escape from a potential well are general frameworks introduced to study phase space transport in chaotic dynamical systems. While the former approach studies how regions of phase space are transported by reducing the flow to a two-dimensional map, the latter approach studies the phase space structures that lead to critical events by crossing periodic orbit around saddles. Both of these frameworks require computation with curves represented by millions of points-computing intersection points between these curves and area bounded by the segments of these curves-for quantifying the transport and escape rate. We present a theory for computing these intersection points and the area bounded between the segments of these curves based on a classification of the intersection points using equivalence class. We also present an alternate theory for curves with nontransverse intersections and a method to increase the density of points on the curves for locating the intersection points accurately.The numerical implementation of the theory presented herein is available as an open source software called Lober. We used this package to demonstrate the application of the theory to lobe dynamics that arises in fluid mechanics, and rate of escape from a potential well that arises in ship dynamics.Comment: 33 pages, 17 figure

Personal radio use and cancer risks among 48,518 British police officers and staff from the Airwave Health Monitoring Study

Background: Radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) from mobile phones have been classified as potentially carcinogenic. No study has investigated use of Terrestrial Trunked Radio (TETRA), a source of RF-EMF with wide occupational use, and cancer risks. Methods: We investigated association of monthly personal radio use and risk of cancer using Cox proportional hazards regression among 48,518 police officers and staff of the Airwave Health Monitoring Study in Great Britain. Results: During median follow-up of 5.9 years, 716 incident cancer cases were identified. Among users, the median of the average monthly duration of use in the year prior to enrolment was 30.5 min (inter-quartile range 8.1, 68.1). Overall, there was no association between personal radio use and risk of all cancers (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93, 1.03). For head and neck cancers HR = 0.72 (95% CI: 0.30, 1.70) among personal radio users vs non-users, and among users it was 1.06 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.23) per doubling of minutes of personal radio use. Conclusions: With the limited follow-up to date, we found no evidence of association of personal radio use with cancer risk. Continued follow-up of the cohort is warranted

Symmetry breaking perturbations and strange attractors

The asymmetrically forced, damped Duffing oscillator is introduced as a prototype model for analyzing the homoclinic tangle of symmetric dissipative systems with \textit{symmetry breaking} disturbances. Even a slight fixed asymmetry in the perturbation may cause a substantial change in the asymptotic behavior of the system, e.g. transitions from two sided to one sided strange attractors as the other parameters are varied. Moreover, slight asymmetries may cause substantial asymmetries in the relative size of the basins of attraction of the unforced nearly symmetric attracting regions. These changes seems to be associated with homoclinic bifurcations. Numerical evidence indicates that \textit{strange attractors} appear near curves corresponding to specific secondary homoclinic bifurcations. These curves are found using analytical perturbational tools

Third-Party Strategy under Plurality Rule: The British Liberal Democrats and the New Zealand Social Credit Party

This paper examines the strategic options facing small centrist third parties in two-party parliamentary systems operating under the single-member district plurality (SMDP) electoral system. It uses a spatial model to show that centrist third parties are better off targeting the 'safe' districts of a major party rather than marginal districts. Furthermore, it is optimal to target one party's districts, not both, to benefit from tactical and protest voting. The paper also questions the implicit conclusion of the median-legislator theorem that pivotality-seeking is the best strategy for a third party, at least under SMDP, because that would usurp voters' ability to select the executive directly, a key feature of two-partism. Finally, the paper shows that third parties can damage themselves if they 'flip' from opposition to one major party to support for it. Evidence is provided for the British Liberal Democrats and New Zealand?s historic Social Credit Party

A multi-component flood risk assessment in the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean)

Coastal regions are the areas most threatened by natural hazards, with floods being the most frequent and significant threat in terms of their induced impacts, and therefore, any management scheme requires their evaluation. In coastal areas, flooding is a hazard associated with various processes acting at different scales: coastal storms, flash floods, and sea level rise (SLR). In order to address the problem as a whole, this study presents a methodology to undertake a preliminary integrated risk assessment that determines the magnitude of the different flood processes (flash flood, marine storm, SLR) and their associated consequences, taking into account their temporal and spatial scales. The risk is quantified using specific indicators to assess the magnitude of the hazard (for each component) and the consequences in a common scale. This allows for a robust comparison of the spatial risk distribution along the coast in order to identify both the areas at greatest risk and the risk components that have the greatest impact. This methodology is applied on the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain), which can be considered representative of developed areas of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The results obtained characterise this coastline as an area of relatively low overall risk, although some hot spots have been identified with high-risk values, with flash flooding being the principal risk process

Multiple origins of melanism in two species of North American tree squirrel ( Sciurus )

Abstract: Background: While our understanding of the genetic basis of convergent evolution has improved there are still many uncertainties. Here we investigate the repeated evolution of dark colouration (melanism) in eastern fox squirrels (Sciurus niger; hereafter “fox squirrels”) and eastern gray squirrels (S. carolinensis; hereafter “gray squirrels”). Results: We show that convergent evolution of melanism has arisen by independent genetic mechanisms in two populations of the fox squirrel. In a western population, melanism is associated with a 24 bp deletion in the melanocortin-1-receptor gene (MC1RΔ24 allele), whereas in a south-eastern population, melanism is associated with a point substitution in the agouti signalling protein gene causing a Gly121Cys mutation. The MC1R∆24 allele is also associated with melanism in gray squirrels, and, remarkably, all the MC1R∆24 haplotypes are identical in the two species. Evolutionary analyses show that the MC1R∆24 haplotype is more closely related to other MC1R haplotypes in the fox squirrel than in the gray squirrel. Modelling supports the possibility of gene flow between the two species. Conclusions: The presence of the MC1R∆24 allele and melanism in gray squirrels is likely due to introgression from fox squirrels, although we cannot completely rule out alternative hypotheses including introgression from gray squirrels to fox squirrels, or an ancestral polymorphism. Convergent melanism in these two species of tree squirrels has evolved by at least two and probably three different evolutionary routes

Characteristics of stakeholder networks supporting local government performance improvements in rural water supply: Cases from Ghana, Malawi, and Bolivia

A study of local governments in Ghana, Malawi, and Bolivia applies social network analysis to identify characteristics of stakeholder networks supporting performance improvements in these institutions. Seven local governments that have demonstrated performance improvements are studied. Network analysis is combined with qualitative analysis of a commentary from primary interviews with stakeholders in these networks to identify characteristics that are observable from a network perspective and perceived as important by stakeholders active in these networks. Three network characteristics are identified in multiple cases as supporting improvements in local government performance. The first network characteristic is multiple information and skill ties between a local government and other local stakeholders including communities and operators. The second network characteristic is strong information and skill ties between a local government and higher levels of sector hierarchy. The third characteristic is coordination between stakeholders at higher levels of sector hierarchy that have strong information and skill ties with a local government. Strong information and skill ties between these support providers can help them to coordinate their efforts to collaboratively support local governments. These three characteristics can be used to analyse other stakeholder networks around local governments to identify where certain relationships that might support institutional development are missing

Parallels between wind and crowd loading of bridges

Parallels between the dynamic response of flexible bridges under the action of wind and under the forces induced by crowds allow each field to inform the other.Wind-induced behaviour has been traditionally classified into categories such as flutter, galloping, vortex-induced vibration and buffeting. However, computational advances such as the vortex particle method have led to a more general picture where effects may occur simultaneously and interact, such that the simple semantic demarcations break down. Similarly, the modelling of individual pedestrians has progressed the understanding of human–structure interaction, particularly for large amplitude lateral oscillations under crowd loading. In this paper, guided by the interaction of flutter and vortexinduced vibration in wind engineering, a framework is presented, which allows various human–structure interaction effects to coexist and interact, thereby providing a possible synthesis of previously disparate experimental and theoretical results