Using Zero-inflated Count Regression Models To Estimate The Fertility Of U. S. Women

In the modeling of count variables there is sometimes a preponderance of zero counts. This article concerns the estimation of Poisson regression models (PRM) and negative binomial regression models (NBRM) to predict the average number of children ever born (CEB) to women in the U.S. The PRM and NBRM will often under-predict zeros because they do not consider zero counts of women who are not trying to have children. The fertility of U.S. white and Mexican-origin women show that zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models perform better in many respects than the Poisson and negative binomial models. Zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial regression models are statistically appropriate for the modeling of fertility in low fertility populations, especially when there is a preponderance of women in the society with no children

Toward a descriptive model of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere

Researchers review the elements that enter into phenomenological models of the composition, energy spectra, and the spatial and temporal variations of galactic cosmic rays, including the so-called anomalous cosmic ray component. Starting from an existing model, designed to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the near-Earth environment, researchers suggest possible updates and improvements to this model, and then propose a quantitative approach for extending such a model into other regions of the heliosphere

Agreement among Health Care Professionals in Diagnosing Case Vignette-Based Surgical Site Infections

OBJECTIVE: To assess agreement in diagnosing surgical site infection (SSI) among healthcare professionals involved in SSI surveillance. METHODS: Case-vignette study done in 2009 in 140 healthcare professionals from seven specialties (20 in each specialty, Anesthesiologists, Surgeons, Public health specialists, Infection control physicians, Infection control nurses, Infectious diseases specialists, Microbiologists) in 29 University and 36 non-University hospitals in France. We developed 40 case-vignettes based on cardiac and gastrointestinal surgery patients with suspected SSI. Each participant scored six randomly assigned case-vignettes before and after reading the SSI definition on an online secure relational database. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess agreement regarding SSI diagnosis on a seven-point Likert scale and the kappa coefficient to assess agreement for superficial or deep SSI on a three-point scale. RESULTS: Based on a consensus, SSI was present in 21 of 40 vignettes (52.5%). Intraspecialty agreement for SSI diagnosis ranged across specialties from 0.15 (95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.59) (anesthesiologists and infection control nurses) to 0.73 (0.32-0.90) (infectious diseases specialists). Reading the SSI definition improved agreement in the specialties with poor initial agreement. Intraspecialty agreement for superficial or deep SSI ranged from 0.10 (-0.19-0.38) to 0.54 (0.25-0.83) (surgeons) and increased after reading the SSI definition only among the infection control nurses from 0.10 (-0.19-0.38) to 0.41 (-0.09-0.72). Interspecialty agreement for SSI diagnosis was 0.36 (0.22-0.54) and increased to 0.47 (0.31-0.64) after reading the SSI definition. CONCLUSION: Among healthcare professionals evaluating case-vignettes for possible surgical site infection, there was large disagreement in diagnosis that varied both between and within specialties

Untangling the Debate: The Ethics of Human Enhancement

Human enhancement, in which nanotechnology is expected to play a major role, continues to be a highly contentious ethical debate, with experts on both sides calling it the single most important issue facing science and society in this brave, new century. This paper is a broad introduction to the symposium herein that explores a range of perspectives related to that debate. We will discuss what human enhancement is and its apparent contrast to therapy; and we will begin to tease apart the myriad intertwined issues that arise in the debate: (1) freedom & autonomy, (2) health & safety, (3) fairness & equity, (4) societal disruption, and (5) human dignity

The African Cichlid Fish Astatotilapia burtoni Uses Acoustic Communication for Reproduction: Sound Production, Hearing, and Behavioral Significance

Sexual reproduction in all animals depends on effective communication between signalers and receivers. Many fish species, especially the African cichlids, are well known for their bright coloration and the importance of visual signaling during courtship and mate choice, but little is known about what role acoustic communication plays during mating and how it contributes to sexual selection in this phenotypically diverse group of vertebrates. Here we examined acoustic communication during reproduction in the social cichlid fish, Astatotilapia burtoni. We characterized the sounds and associated behaviors produced by dominant males during courtship, tested for differences in hearing ability associated with female reproductive state and male social status, and then tested the hypothesis that female mate preference is influenced by male sound production. We show that dominant males produce intentional courtship sounds in close proximity to females, and that sounds are spectrally similar to their hearing abilities. Females were 2–5-fold more sensitive to low frequency sounds in the spectral range of male courtship sounds when they were sexually-receptive compared to during the mouthbrooding parental phase. Hearing thresholds were also negatively correlated with circulating sex-steroid levels in females but positively correlated in males, suggesting a potential role for steroids in reproductive-state auditory plasticity. Behavioral experiments showed that receptive females preferred to affiliate with males that were associated with playback of courtship sounds compared to noise controls, indicating that acoustic information is likely important for female mate choice. These data show for the first time in a Tanganyikan cichlid that acoustic communication is important during reproduction as part of a multimodal signaling repertoire, and that perception of auditory information changes depending on the animal's internal physiological state. Our results highlight the importance of examining non-visual sensory modalities as potential substrates for sexual selection contributing to the incredible phenotypic diversity of African cichlid fishes

Environmental Factors Affecting Large-Bodied Coral Reef Fish Assemblages in the Mariana Archipelago

Large-bodied reef fishes represent an economically and ecologically important segment of the coral reef fish assemblage. Many of these individuals supply the bulk of the reproductive output for their population and have a disproportionate effect on their environment (e.g. as apex predators or bioeroding herbivores). Large-bodied reef fishes also tend to be at greatest risk of overfishing, and their loss can result in a myriad of either cascading (direct) or indirect trophic and other effects. While many studies have investigated habitat characteristics affecting populations of small-bodied reef fishes, few have explored the relationship between large-bodied species and their environment. Here, we describe the distribution of the large-bodied reef fishes in the Mariana Archipelago with an emphasis on the environmental factors associated with their distribution. Of the factors considered in this study, a negative association with human population density showed the highest relative influence on the distribution of large-bodied reef fishes; however, depth, water temperature, and distance to deep water also were important. These findings provide new information on the ecology of large-bodied reef fishes can inform discussions concerning essential fish habitat and ecosystem-based management for these species and highlight important knowledge gaps worthy of additional research

Vitrification of Rocky Flats ash followed by encapsulation in the Defense Waste Processing Facility

The Department of Energy (DOE) manages approximately 10 to 20 metric tons of plutonium in the form of scrap, residues, oxides, ash, metal, sludge, compounds, etc. Not all of this material is chemically stable or is packaging acceptable for storage. Thus, it constitutes a potential hazard to employees and to the public. This paper describes a relatively simple concept for stabilizing most of this type of plutonium by converting it into encapsulated glass. A full-scale hot demonstration of the concept is proposed, in which Rock Flats ash would be vitrified and sealed in small cans, followed by encapsulation of the cans in Defense Waste Processing Facility canisters with high-level glass