A surrogate model for the economic evaluation of renewable hydrogen production from biomass feedstocks via supercritical water gasification

Supercritical water gasification is a promising technology for renewable hydrogen production from high moisture content biomass. This work produces a machine learning surrogate model to predict the Levelised Cost of Hydrogen over a range of biomass compositions, processing capacities, and geographic locations. The model is published to facilitate early-stage economic analysis (doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22811066). A process simulation using the Gibbs reactor provided the training data using 40 biomass compositions, five processing capacities (10–200 m3/h), and three geographic locations (China, Brazil, UK). The levelised costs ranged between 3.81 and 18.72 $/kgH2 across the considered parameter combinations. Heat and electricity integration resulted in low process emissions averaging 0.46 kgCO2eq/GJH2 (China and Brazil), and 0.37 kgCO2eq/GJH2 (UK). Artificial neural networks were most accurate when compared to random forests and support vector regression for the surrogate model during cross-validation, achieving an accuracy of MAPE: 0.99 on the test set

The influence of transition metal solutes on dislocation core structure and values of Peierls stress and barrier in tungsten

Several transition metals were examined to evaluate their potential for improving the ductility of tungsten. The dislocation core structure and Peierls stress and barrier of $1/2$ screw dislocations in binary tungsten-transition metal alloys (W$_{1-x}$TM$_{x}$) were investigated using first principles electronic structure calculations. The periodic quadrupole approach was applied to model the structure of $1/2$ dislocation. Alloying with transition metals was modeled using the virtual crystal approximation and the applicability of this approach was assessed by calculating the equilibrium lattice parameter and elastic constants of the tungsten alloys. Reasonable agreement was obtained with experimental data and with results obtained from the conventional supercell approach. Increasing the concentration of a transition metal from the VIIIA group, i.e. the elements in columns headed by Fe, Co and Ni, leads to reduction of the $C^\prime$ elastic constant and increase of elastic anisotropy A=$C_{44}/C^\prime$. Alloying W with a group VIIIA transition metal changes the structure of the dislocation core from symmetric to asymmetric, similar to results obtained for W$_{1-x}$Re$_{x}$ alloys in the earlier work of Romaner {\it et al} (Phys. Rev. Lett. 104, 195503 (2010))\comments{\cite{WRECORE}}. In addition to a change in the core symmetry, the values of the Peierls stress and barrier are reduced. The latter effect could lead to increased ductility in a tungsten-based alloy\comments{\cite{WRECORE}}. Our results demonstrate that alloying with any of the transition metals from the VIIIA group should have similar effect as alloying with Re.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 3 table

Using a pragmatically adapted, low-cost contingency management intervention to promote heroin abstinence in individuals undergoing treatment for heroin use disorder in UK drug services (PRAISE): a cluster randomised trial

Introduction: Most individuals treated for heroin use disorder receive opioid agonist treatment (OAT)(methadone or buprenorphine). However, OAT is associated with high attrition and persistent, occasional heroin use. There is some evidence for the effectiveness of contingency management (CM), a behavioural intervention involving modest financial incentives, in encouraging drug abstinence when applied adjunctively with OAT. UK drug services have a minimal track record of applying CM and limited resources to implement it. We assessed a CM intervention pragmatically adapted for ease of implementation in UK drug services to promote heroin abstinence among individuals receiving OAT. Design: Cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting and participants: 552 adults with heroin use disorder (target 660) enrolled from 34 clusters (drug treatment clinics) in England between November 2012 and October 2015. Interventions: Clusters were randomly allocated 1:1:1 to OAT plus 12× weekly appointments with: (1) CM targeted at opiate abstinence at appointments (CM Abstinence); (2) CM targeted at on-time attendance at appointments (CM Attendance); or (3) no CM (treatment as usual; TAU). Modifications included monitoring behaviour weekly and fixed incentives schedule. Measurements: Primary outcome: heroin abstinence measured by heroin-free urines (weeks 9–12). Secondary outcomes: heroin abstinence 12 weeks after discontinuation of CM (weeks 21–24); attendance; self-reported drug use, physical and mental health. Results: CM Attendance was superior to TAU in encouraging heroin abstinence. Odds of a heroin-negative urine in weeks 9–12 was statistically significantly greater in CM Attendance compared with TAU (OR=2.1; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.9; p=0.030). CM Abstinence was not superior to TAU (OR=1.6; 95% CI 0.9 to 3.0; p=0.146) or CM Attendance (OR=1.3; 95% CI 0.7 to 2.4; p=0.438) (not statistically significant differences). Reductions in heroin use were not sustained at 21–24 weeks. No differences between groups in self-reported heroin use. Conclusions: A pragmatically adapted CM intervention for routine use in UK drug services was moderately effective in encouraging heroin abstinence compared with no CM only when targeted at attendance. CM targeted at abstinence was not effective. Trial registration number: ISRCTN 01591254

Positive reinforcement targeting abstinence in substance misuse (PRAISe): Study protocol for a Cluster RCT & process evaluation of contingency management

There are approximately 256,000 heroin and other opiate users in England of whom 155,000 are in treatment for heroin (or opiate) addiction. The majority of people in treatment receive opiate substitution treatment (OST) (methadone and buprenorphine). However, OST suffers from high attrition and persistent heroin use even whilst in treatment. Contingency management (CM) is a psychological intervention based on the principles of operant conditioning. It is delivered as an adjunct to existing evidence based treatments to amplify patient benefit and involves the systematic application of positive reinforcement (financial or material incentives) to promote behaviours consistent with treatment goals. With an international evidence base for CM, NICE recommended that CM be implemented in UK drug treatment settings alongside OST to target attendance and the reduction of illicit drug use. While there was a growing evidence base for CM, there had been no examination of its delivery in UK NHS addiction services. The PRAISe trial evaluates the feasibility, acceptability, clinical and cost effectiveness of CM in UK addiction services. It is a cluster randomised controlled effectiveness trial of CM (praise and financial incentives) targeted at either abstinence from opiates or attendance at treatment sessions versus no CM among individuals receiving OST. The trial includes an economic evaluation which explores the relative costs and cost effectiveness of the two CM intervention strategies compared to TAU and an embedded process evaluation to identify contextual factors and causal mechanisms associated with variations in outcome. This study will inform UK drug treatment policy and practice. Trial registration ISRCTN 01591254

Creating 'Partnership in iSupport program' to optimise family carers' impact on dementia care: a randomised controlled trial protocol

Background: The majority of people with dementia are cared for by their family members. However, family carers are often unprepared for their caring roles, receiving less education and support compared with professional carers. The consequences are their reduced mental and physical health and wellbeing, and that of care recipients. This study protocol introduces the ‘Partnership in iSupport program’ that includes five interventional components: managing transitions, managing dementia progression, psychoeducation, carer support group and feedback on services. This health services research is built on family carer and dementia care service provider partnerships. The aims of the study are to evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and family carers’ experiences in the program. Methods: A multicentre randomised controlled trial will be conducted with family carers of people living with dementia from two tertiary hospitals and two community aged care providers across three Australian states. The estimated sample size is 185 family carers. They will be randomly assigned to either the intervention group or the usual care group. Outcomes are measurable improvements in quality of life for carers and people with dementia, caregiving self-efficacy, social support, dementia related symptoms, and health service use for carers and their care recipients. Data will be collected at three time points: baseline, 6 months and 12 months post-initiation of the intervention. Discussion: This is the first large randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention on health and social care services with carers of people living with dementia in real-world practice across hospital and community aged care settings in three Australian states to ascertain the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and carers’ experiences of the innovative program. We expect that this study will address gaps in supporting dementia carers in health and social care systems while generating new knowledge of the mechanisms of change in the systems. Findings will strengthen proactive health management for both people living with dementia and their carers by embedding, scaling up and sustaining the ‘Partnership in iSupport program’ in the health and social care systems.Lily Xiao, Ying Yu, Julie Ratcliffe, Rachel Milte, Claudia Meyer, Michael Chapman, Langduo Chen, Shahid Ullah, Alison Kitson, Andre Queiroz De Andrade, Elizabeth Beattie, Henry Brodaty, Sue McKechnie, Lee, Fay Low, Tuan Anh Nguyen, Craig Whitehead, Bianca Brijnath, Ronald Sinclair, and Diana Vos

Intraspecific Correlations of Basal and Maximal Metabolic Rates in Birds and the Aerobic Capacity Model for the Evolution of Endothermy

The underlying assumption of the aerobic capacity model for the evolution of endothermy is that basal (BMR) and maximal aerobic metabolic rates are phenotypically linked. However, because BMR is largely a function of central organs whereas maximal metabolic output is largely a function of skeletal muscles, the mechanistic underpinnings for their linkage are not obvious. Interspecific studies in birds generally support a phenotypic correlation between BMR and maximal metabolic output. If the aerobic capacity model is valid, these phenotypic correlations should also extend to intraspecific comparisons. We measured BMR, Msum (maximum thermoregulatory metabolic rate) and MMR (maximum exercise metabolic rate in a hop-flutter chamber) in winter for dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis), American goldfinches (Carduelis tristis; Msum and MMR only), and black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus; BMR and Msum only) and examined correlations among these variables. We also measured BMR and Msum in individual house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in both summer, winter and spring. For both raw metabolic rates and residuals from allometric regressions, BMR was not significantly correlated with either Msum or MMR in juncos. Moreover, no significant correlation between Msum and MMR or their mass-independent residuals occurred for juncos or goldfinches. Raw BMR and Msum were significantly positively correlated for black-capped chickadees and house sparrows, but mass-independent residuals of BMR and Msum were not. These data suggest that central organ and exercise organ metabolic levels are not inextricably linked and that muscular capacities for exercise and shivering do not necessarily vary in tandem in individual birds. Why intraspecific and interspecific avian studies show differing results and the significance of these differences to the aerobic capacity model are unknown, and resolution of these questions will require additional studies of potential mechanistic links between minimal and maximal metabolic output

Modelling mammalian energetics: the heterothermy problem

Global climate change is expected to have strong effects on the world’s flora and fauna. As a result, there has been a recent increase in the number of meta-analyses and mechanistic models that attempt to predict potential responses of mammals to changing climates. Many models that seek to explain the effects of environmental temperatures on mammalian energetics and survival assume a constant body temperature. However, despite generally being regarded as strict homeotherms, mammals demonstrate a large degree of daily variability in body temperature, as well as the ability to reduce metabolic costs either by entering torpor, or by increasing body temperatures at high ambient temperatures. Often, changes in body temperature variability are unpredictable, and happen in response to immediate changes in resource abundance or temperature. In this review we provide an overview of variability and unpredictability found in body temperatures of extant mammals, identify potential blind spots in the current literature, and discuss options for incorporating variability into predictive mechanistic models

Trust in financial services: the influence of demographics and dispositional characteristics

So far, very little attention has been paid to examining consumer perceptions of trust from an interdisciplinary perspective. The purpose of this study is to examine how consumer trusting belief and disposition to trust within the financial services sector vary on the basis of individual demographic differences in trust. The research provides new insights into how consumers with higher dispositional trust have higher institutional trust and higher trusting belief and how consumers’ trusting belief significantly differs according to their demographic background in terms of age, marital status, ethnicity and gross annual income. The findings offer useful insights for the managers in financial institutions to carefully consider the impact of the influence of these individual differences on consumer behaviour in order to serve the needs of consumers in their target market and be able to design financial products and develop trust building strategies to attract and retain them. They also call for the action of the regulators and the financial institutions to play their part in building strong institutional systems that contribute to engendering higher levels of consumer trust

Need for recovery amongst emergency physicians in the UK and Ireland: A cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVES: To determine the need for recovery (NFR) among emergency physicians and to identify demographic and occupational characteristics associated with higher NFR scores. DESIGN: Cross-sectional electronic survey. SETTING: Emergency departments (EDs) (n=112) in the UK and Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Emergency physicians, defined as any registered physician working principally within the ED, responding between June and July 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: NFR Scale, an 11-item self-administered questionnaire that assesses how work demands affect intershift recovery. RESULTS: The median NFR Score for all 4247 eligible, consented participants with a valid NFR Score was 70.0 (95% CI: 65.5 to 74.5), with an IQR of 45.5-90.0. A linear regression model indicated statistically significant associations between gender, health conditions, type of ED, clinical grade, access to annual and study leave, and time spent working out-of-hours. Groups including male physicians, consultants, general practitioners (GPs) within the ED, those working in paediatric EDs and those with no long-term health condition or disability had a lower NFR Score. After adjusting for these characteristics, the NFR Score increased by 3.7 (95% CI: 0.3 to 7.1) and 6.43 (95% CI: 2.0 to 10.8) for those with difficulty accessing annual and study leave, respectively. Increased percentage of out-of-hours work increased NFR Score almost linearly: 26%-50% out-of-hours work=5.7 (95% CI: 3.1 to 8.4); 51%-75% out-of-hours work=10.3 (95% CI: 7.6 to 13.0); 76%-100% out-of-hours work=14.5 (95% CI: 11.0 to 17.9). CONCLUSION: Higher NFR scores were observed among emergency physicians than reported in any other profession or population to date. While out-of-hours working is unavoidable, the linear relationship observed suggests that any reduction may result in NFR improvement. Evidence-based strategies to improve well-being such as proportional out-of-hours working and improved access to annual and study leave should be carefully considered and implemented where feasible