Preventing Repeated Real World AI Failures by Cataloging Incidents: The AI Incident Database

Mature industrial sectors (e.g., aviation) collect their real world failures in incident databases to inform safety improvements. Intelligent systems currently cause real world harms without a collective memory of their failings. As a result, companies repeatedly make the same mistakes in the design, development, and deployment of intelligent systems. A collection of intelligent system failures experienced in the real world (i.e., incidents) is needed to ensure intelligent systems benefit people and society. The AI Incident Database is an incident collection initiated by an industrial/non-profit cooperative to enable AI incident avoidance and mitigation. The database supports a variety of research and development use cases with faceted and full text search on more than 1,000 incident reports archived to date.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures, Pre-print accepted to Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence (IAAI-21

Data-Centric Governance

Artificial intelligence (AI) governance is the body of standards and practices used to ensure that AI systems are deployed responsibly. Current AI governance approaches consist mainly of manual review and documentation processes. While such reviews are necessary for many systems, they are not sufficient to systematically address all potential harms, as they do not operationalize governance requirements for system engineering, behavior, and outcomes in a way that facilitates rigorous and reproducible evaluation. Modern AI systems are data-centric: they act on data, produce data, and are built through data engineering. The assurance of governance requirements must also be carried out in terms of data. This work explores the systematization of governance requirements via datasets and algorithmic evaluations. When applied throughout the product lifecycle, data-centric governance decreases time to deployment, increases solution quality, decreases deployment risks, and places the system in a continuous state of assured compliance with governance requirements.Comment: 26 pages, 13 figure

Machine learning methods for public policy : simulation, optimization, and visualization

Society faces many complex management problems, particularly in the area of shared public resources such as ecosystems. Existing decision making processes are often guided by personal experience and political ideology rather than state-of-the-art scientific understanding. This dissertation envisions a future in which multiple stakeholders are provided with computational tools for formalizing their management preferences and computing optimal solutions based on state-of-the-art computational simulations. To make this vision a reality, advances are required in optimization and visualization, and this dissertation presents research on both topics within the formalism of the Markov decision process (MDP). First, it describes an interactive visualization system for understanding the MDP under user-defined management policies, reward functions, and transition dynamics. Second, it presents a method for optimizing management policies for the user-parameterized MDPs. The research is illustrated and validated using a combination of benchmark MDPs and an application to the management of wildfire in ponderosa pine forests. For the wildfire problem, an excellent high-fidelity model of forest growth and wildfire behavior is employed. However, this model is extremely slow, which prevents interactive visualization and optimization. To address simulation computational expense, the dissertation also presents a method for creating a fast surrogate model and shows that this model is sufficiently accurate to support policy optimization and visualization.Keywords: direct policy search, reinforcement learning, testing, artificial intelligence, markov decision processes, public policy, visualization, wildfire, optimization, model-free Monte Carl

Flexible foraging strategies in Pipistrellus pygmaeus in response to abundant but ephemeral prey

There is growing recognition that with sympathetic management, plantation forests may contain more biodiversity than previously thought. However, the extent to which they may support bat populations is contentious. Many studies have demonstrated active avoidance of coniferous plantations and attributed this to the lack of available roost sites and low invertebrate density. In contrast, other work , carried out in plantation dominated landscapes have shown that certain bat species are able to exploit these areas. However, the extent to which bats use plantations for roosting and foraging, or simply move through the plantation matrix to access more favourable sites is unclear. We radio tracked female Pipistrellus pygmaeus over two summers to establish the extent to which individual bats use Sitka Spruce plantations in southern Scotland for foraging and roosting and assess the implications for felling operations on bats. Maternity roosts identified (n=17) were in all in buildings and most were large (> 500 individuals). We found no evidence of bats roosting in mature Sitka Spruce crop trees, although several bats used roosts in old or dead beech and oak trees as an alternative to their main maternity roost. Home ranges were much larger (mean 9.6 ± 3.12 km2) than those reported from other studies ((0.6 – 1.6 km2), and it is likely that roost availability rather than food abundance constrains P. pygmaeus use of Sitka Spruce plantations. At the landscape scale, most individuals selected coniferous habitats over other habitat types, covering large distances to access plantation areas, whilst at a local scale bats used forest tracks to access water, felled stands or patches of broadleaf cover within the plantation. Sitka Spruce plantations support a high abundance of Culicoides impuctatus, the Highland midge which may act as a reliable and plentiful food source for females during lactation, an energetically expensive period. The use of felled stands for foraging by bats has implications for forest management as wind turbines, following small-scale felling operations, are increasingly being installed in plantations; wind turbines have been associated with high bat mortality in some countries. Decisions about siting wind turbines in upland plantations should consider the likelihood of increased bat activity post felling

Long-term results of protocol kidney biopsy directing steroid withdrawal in simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplant patients

Introduction: We sought to determine whether protocol biopsies could be used to guide treatment and improve outcomes in simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) patients. Methods: Between 2004 and 2013, protocol biopsies were performed on SPK patients at 3–6 months and one year post-transplant. Maintenance immunosuppression consisted of a calcineurin inhibitor, anti-proliferative agent, and corticosteroid. Corticosteroid was withdrawn in negative early biopsies, maintained in subclinical/ borderline biopsies, and increased if Banff IB or greater rejection was identified. Endpoints included presence of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy on biopsy at one year (IF/TA), rejection episodes, and renal and pancreas function at five years’ followup. Results: Forty-one SPK transplant patients were reviewed and a total of 75 protocol biopsies were identified. On early biopsy, 51% had negative biopsies, 44% had borderline rejection, and 5% had subclinical rejection. Renal and pancreas function were not significantly different at one, two, and five years post-transplant between negative vs. borderline early biopsy patients. No difference in the degree of IF/TA was found between these two groups. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate protocol biopsies as an investigative tool prior to steroid withdrawal in SPK patients. Our study suggests that there are no detrimental functional or histological effects at five years post-transplant, despite weaning steroids in the negative biopsy group

Lower extremity fatigue increases complexity of postural control during a single-legged stance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-linear approaches to assessment of postural control can provide insight that compliment linear approaches. Control entropy (CE) is a recently developed statistical tool from non-linear dynamical systems used to assess the complexity of non-stationary signals. We have previously used CE of high resolution accelerometry in running to show decreased complexity with exhaustive exercise. The purpose of this study was to determine if complexity of postural control decreases following fatiguing exercise using CE.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ten subjects (5 M/5 F; 25 ± 3 yr; 169.4 ± 11.7 cm; 79.0 ± 16.9 kg) consented to participation approved by Western Oregon University IRB and completed two trials separated by 2-7 days. Trials consisted of two single-legged balance tests separated by two Wingate anaerobic tests (WAnT; PreFat/PostFat), or rest period (PreRest/PostRest). Balance tests consisted of a series of five single-legged stances, separated by 30 s rest, performed while standing on the dominant leg for 15-s with the participant crossing the arms over the chest and flexing the non-dominant knee to 90 degrees. High resolution accelerometers (HRA) were fixed superficial to L3/L4 at the approximate center of mass (COM). Triaxial signals from the HRA were streamed in real time at 625 Hz. COM accelerations were recorded in g's for vertical (VT), medial/lateral (ML), and anterior/posterior (AP) axes. A newly developed statistic (R-test) was applied to group response shapes generated by Karhunen Loeve (KL) transform modes resulting from Control Entropy (CE) analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>R-tests showed a significant mean vector difference (<it>p </it>< .05) within conditions, between axes in all cases, except PostFat, indicating the shape of the complexity response was different in these cases. R-test between conditions, within axis, differences were only present in PostFat for AP vs. PreFat (<it>p </it>< .05). T-tests showed a significantly higher overall CE PostFat in VT and ML compared to PreFat and PostRest (<it>p </it>< .0001). PostFat CE was also higher than PostRest in AP (<it>p </it>< .0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data indicate that fatiguing exercise eliminates the differential complexity response between axes, but increases complexity in all axes compared to the non-fatigued condition. This has implications with regard to the effects of fatigue on strategies of the control system to maintain postural control.</p

Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs

Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit – the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, we employed Monte Carlo methods to generate a set of scenarios for subsequent fire ignition and weather events, which are referred to as sample paths, for a study area in central Oregon. We simulated fire on the landscape over a 100-year time horizon using existing models of fire behaviour, vegetation and fuels development, and suppression effectiveness, and we estimated suppression costs using an existing suppression cost model. Our estimates suggest that the potential cost savings may be substantial. Further research is needed to estimate the full least-cost-plus-net-value-change model. This line of research will extend the set of tools available for developing wildfire management plans for forested landscapes.Keywords: bio-economic modelling, wildland fire management, forest economics, forest fire polic

High-intensity interval training in patients with intermittent claudication

OBJECTIVE: Provision, uptake, adherence, and completion rates for supervised exercise programs (SEP) for intermittent claudication (IC) are low. A shorter, more time-efficient, 6-week, high-intensity interval training (HIIT) program may be an effective alternative that is more acceptable to patients and easier to deliver. The aim of this study was to determine the feasibility of HIIT for patients with IC. METHODS: A single arm proof-of-concept study, performed in secondary care, recruiting patients with IC referred to usual-care SEPs. Supervised HIIT was performed three times per week for 6 weeks. The primary outcome was feasibility and tolerability. Potential efficacy and potential safety were considered, and an integrated qualitative study was undertaken to consider acceptability. RESULTS: A total of 280 patients were screened: 165 (59%) were eligible, and 40 (25%) were recruited. The majority (n = 31; 78%) of participants completed the HIIT program. The remaining nine patients were withdrawn or chose to withdraw. Completers attended 99% of training sessions, completed 85% of sessions in full, and performed 84% of completed intervals at the required intensity. There were no related serious adverse events. Maximum walking distance (+94 m; 95% confidence interval, 66.6-120.8 m) and the SF-36 physical component summary (+2.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.3-4.1) were improved following completion of the program. CONCLUSIONS: Uptake to HIIT was comparable to SEPs in patients with IC, but completion rates were higher. HIIT appears feasible, tolerable, and potentially safe and beneficial for patients with IC. It may provide a more readily deliverable, acceptable form of SEP. Research comparing HIIT with usual-care SEPs appears warranted