The framing of options for retirement: Experimental tests for policy. ESRI WP604, December 2018

We hypothesise and confirm a substantial framing effect in relation to whether people opt for an annuity on retirement. Two laboratory experiments were conducted in collaboration with a national pensions regulator. Individuals demanded a higher annuity rate when pensions were initially conceived of as an accumulated lump sum – a “nest egg” or “pension pot” – than when they were initially conceived of as retirement income. The effect was recorded using both a matching and a choice procedure. Effect sizes implied more than a doubling of demand for annuities at market rates. While mindful of the need for caution in generalising from hypothetical laboratory studies, the findings have potentially strong policy implications. The framing of pension products in marketing materials and disclosures may have substantial effects on financial risks borne in later life

Second-generation p-values: improved rigor, reproducibility, & transparency in statistical analyses

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value - a second-generation p-value - that formally accounts for scientific relevance and leverages this natural Type I Error control. The approach relies on a pre-specified interval null hypothesis that represents the collection of effect sizes that are scientifically uninteresting or are practically null. The second-generation p-value is the proportion of data-supported hypotheses that are also null hypotheses. As such, second-generation p-values indicate when the data are compatible with null hypotheses, or with alternative hypotheses, or when the data are inconclusive. Moreover, second-generation p-values provide a proper scientific adjustment for multiple comparisons and reduce false discovery rates. This is an advance for environments rich in data, where traditional p-value adjustments are needlessly punitive. Second-generation p-values promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori specifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with alternative or null hypotheses.Comment: 29 pages, 29 page Supplemen

Utilization of the Building-Block Approach in Structural Mechanics Research

In the last 20 years NASA has worked in collaboration with industry to develop enabling technologies needed to make aircraft safer and more affordable, extend their lifetime, improve their reliability, better understand their behavior, and reduce their weight. To support these efforts, research programs starting with ideas and culminating in full-scale structural testing were conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. Each program contained development efforts that (a) started with selecting the material system and manufacturing approach; (b) moved on to experimentation and analysis of small samples to characterize the system and quantify behavior in the presence of defects like damage and imperfections; (c) progressed on to examining larger structures to examine buckling behavior, combined loadings, and built-up structures; and (d) finally moved to complicated subcomponents and full-scale components. Each step along the way was supported by detailed analysis, including tool development, to prove that the behavior of these structures was well-understood and predictable. This approach for developing technology became known as the "building-block" approach. In the Advanced Composites Technology Program and the High Speed Research Program the building-block approach was used to develop a true understanding of the response of the structures involved through experimentation and analysis. The philosophy that if the structural response couldn't be accurately predicted, it wasn't really understood, was critical to the progression of these programs. To this end, analytical techniques including closed-form and finite elements were employed and experimentation used to verify assumptions at each step along the way. This paper presents a discussion of the utilization of the building-block approach described previously in structural mechanics research and development programs at NASA Langley Research Center. Specific examples that illustrate the use of this approach are included from recent research and development programs for both subsonic and supersonic transports

Annexin/S100A protein family regulation through p14ARF-p53 activation: A role in cell survival and predicting treatment outcomes in breast cancer

© 2017 Hatoum et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The annexin family and S100A associated proteins are important regulators of diverse calcium- dependent cellular processes including cell division, growth regulation and apoptosis. Dysfunction of individual annexin and S100A proteins is associated with cancer progression, metastasis and cancer drug resistance. This manuscript describes the novel finding of differential regulation of the annexin and S100A family of proteins by activation of p53 in breast cancer cells. Additionally, the observed differential regulation is found to be beneficial to the survival of breast cancer cells and to influence treatment efficacy. We have used unbiased, quantitative proteomics to determine the proteomic changes occurring post p14ARF-p53 activation in estrogen receptor (ER) breast cancer cells. In this report we identified differential regulation of the annexin/S100A family, through unique peptide recognition at the N-terminal regions, demonstrating p14ARF-p53 is a central orchestrator of the annexin/S100A family of calcium regulators in favor of pro-survival functions in the breast cancer cell. This regulation was found to be cell-type specific. Retrospective human breast cancer studies have demonstrated that tumors with functional wild type p53 (p53wt) respond poorly to some chemotherapy agents compared to tumors with a non-functional p53. Given that modulation of calcium signaling has been demonstrated to change sensitivity of chemotherapeutic agents to apoptotic signals, in principle, we explored the paradigm of how p53 modulation of calcium regulators in ER+ breast cancer patients impacts and influences therapeutic outcomes

Optical Follow-up of New SMC Wing Be/X-ray Binaries

We investigate the optical counterparts of recently discovered Be/X-ray binaries in the Small Magellanic Cloud. In total four sources, SXP101, SXP700, SXP348 and SXP65.8 were detected during the Chandra Survey of the Wing of the SMC. SXP700 and SXP65.8 were previously unknown. Many optical ground based telescopes have been utilised in the optical follow-up, providing coverage in both the red and blue bands. This has led to the classification of all of the counterparts as Be stars and confirms that three lie within the Galactic spectral distribution of known Be/X-ray binaries. SXP101 lies outside this distribution becoming the latest spectral type known. Monitoring of the Halpha emission line suggests that all the sources bar SXP700 have highly variable circumstellar disks, possibly a result of their comparatively short orbital periods. Phase resolved X-ray spectroscopy has also been performed on SXP65.8, revealing that the emission is indeed harder during the passage of the X-ray beam through the line of sight.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Foehn winds in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctic: The origin of extreme warming events

Foehn winds resulting from topographic modification of airflow in the lee of mountain barriers are frequently experienced in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica. Strong foehn winds in the MDVs cause dramatic warming at onset and have significant effects on landscape forming processes; however, no detailed scientific investigation of foehn in the MDVs has been conducted. As a result, they are often misinterpreted as adiabatically warmed katabatic winds draining from the polar plateau. Herein observations from surface weather stations and numerical model output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during foehn events in the MDVs are presented. Results show that foehn winds in the MDVs are caused by topographic modification of south-southwesterly airflow, which is channeled into the valleys from higher levels. Modeling of a winter foehn event identifies mountain wave activity similar to that associated with midlatitude foehn winds. These events are found to be caused by strong pressure gradients over the mountain ranges of the MDVs related to synoptic-scale cyclones positioned off the coast of Marie Byrd Land. Analysis of meteorological records for 2006 and 2007 finds an increase of 10% in the frequency of foehn events in 2007 compared to 2006, which corresponds to stronger pressure gradients in the Ross Sea region. It is postulated that the intra- and interannual frequency and intensity of foehn events in the MDVs may therefore vary in response to the position and frequency of cyclones in the Ross Sea region