Explicit incorporation of spatial variability in a biomass dynamics assessment model

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Incorporating intra-annual variability in fisheries abundance data to better capture population dynamics

To reduce the risk of overexploitation and the ensuing conservation and socio-economic consequences, fisheries management relies on receiving accurate scientific advice from stock assessments. Biomass dynamics models used in stock assessment tend to rely primarily on indices of abundance and commercial landings data. Standard practice for calculating the indices used in these models typically involves taking averages of survey tow data over large, diverse spatial domains. There is a lot of variability in the choice of methodologies used to propagate index uncertainty into the assessment model, many of which require specifying it through expert knowledge or prior distributions. Here we propose an alternative approach that treats each individual survey tow as an independent estimate of the true underlying biomass in the stock assessment model itself. This reduces information loss and propagates uncertainties into the model directly. A simulation study demonstrates that this approach accurately captures underlying population dynamics and reliably estimates variance parameters. We further demonstrate its utility with data from the Inshore Scallop Fishery of south-west Nova Scotia. Results show significant improvements in parameter estimation over previous models while providing similar predictions of biomass with less uncertainty. This reduced uncertainty can improve the resulting scientific advice and lead to improved decision-making by fisheries managers.publishedVersio

Non-linear hierarchy of the quorum sensing signalling pathway in bloodstream form African trypanosomes.

Trypanosoma brucei, the agents of African trypanosomiasis, undergo density-dependent differentiation in the mammalian bloodstream to prepare for transmission by tsetse flies. This involves the generation of cell-cycle arrested, quiescent, stumpy forms from proliferative slender forms. The signalling pathway responsible for the quorum sensing response has been catalogued using a genome-wide selective screen, providing a compendium of signalling protein kinases phosphatases, RNA binding proteins and hypothetical proteins. However, the ordering of these components is unknown. To piece together these components to provide a description of how stumpy formation arises we have used an extragenic suppression approach. This exploited a combinatorial gene knockout and overexpression strategy to assess whether the loss of developmental competence in null mutants of pathway components could be compensated by ectopic expression of other components. We have created null mutants for three genes in the stumpy induction factor signalling pathway (RBP7, YAK, MEKK1) and evaluated complementation by expression of RBP7, NEK17, PP1-6, or inducible gene silencing of the proposed differentiation inhibitor TbTOR4. This indicated that the signalling pathway is non-linear. Phosphoproteomic analysis focused on one pathway component, a putative MEKK, identified molecules with altered expression and phosphorylation profiles in MEKK1 null mutants, including another component in the pathway, NEK17. Our data provide a first molecular dissection of multiple components in a signal transduction cascade in trypanosomes

Survival, density, and abundance of common bottlenose dolphins in Barataria Bay (USA) following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

To assess potential impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010, we conducted boat-based photo-identification surveys for common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA (~230 km2, located 167 km WNW of the spill center). Crews logged 838 h of survey effort along pre-defined routes on 10 occasions between late June 2010 and early May 2014. We applied a previously unpublished spatial version of the robust design capture-recapture model to estimate survival and density. This model used photo locations to estimate density in the absence of study area boundaries and to separate mortality from permanent emigration. To estimate abundance, we applied density estimates to saltwater (salinity > ~8 ppt) areas of the bay where telemetry data suggested that dolphins reside. Annual dolphin survival varied between 0.80 and 0.85 (95% CIs varied from 0.77 to 0.90) over 3 yr following the Deepwater Horizon spill. In 2 non-oiled bays (in Florida and North Carolina), historic survival averages approximately 0.95. From June to November 2010, abundance increased from 1300 (95% CI ± ~130) to 3100 (95% CI ± ~400), then declined and remained between ~1600 and ~2400 individuals until spring 2013. In fall 2013 and spring 2014, abundance increased again to approximately 3100 individuals. Dolphin abundance prior to the spill was unknown, but we hypothesize that some dolphins moved out of the sampled area, probably northward into marshes, prior to initiation of our surveys in late June 2010, and later immigrated back into the sampled area.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

“We need a one-stop-shop” : co-creating the model of care for a multidisciplinary memory clinic with community members, GPs, aged care workers, service providers, and policy-makers

Background: Timely diagnosis of dementia has a wide range of benefits including reduced hospital emergency department presentations, admissions and inpatient length of stay, and improved quality of life for patients and their carers by facilitating access to treatments that reduce symptoms, and allow time to plan for the future. Memory clinics can provide such services, however there is no 'gold standard' model of care. This study involved the co-creation of a model of care for a new multidisciplinary memory clinic with local community members, General Practitioners (GPs), policy-makers, community aged care workers, and service providers. Methods: Data collection comprised semi-structured interviews (N=98) with 20 GPs, and three 2-h community forums involving 53 seniors and community/local government representatives, and 25 community healthcare workers. Interviews and community forums were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and coded by thematic analysis using Quirkos. Results: GPs’ attitudes towards their role in assessing people with dementia varied. Many GPs reported that they found it useful for patients to have a diagnosis of dementia, but required support from secondary care to make the diagnosis and assist with subsequent management. Community forum participants felt they had a good knowledge of available dementia resources and services, but noted that these were highly fragmented and needed to be easier to navigate for the patient/carer via a 'one-stop-shop' and the provision of a dementia key worker. Expectations for the services and features of a new memory clinic included diagnostic services, rapid referrals, case management, education, legal services, culturally sensitive and appropriate services, allied health, research participation opportunities, and clear communication with GPs. Participants described several barriers to memory clinic utilisation including transportation access, funding, awareness, and costs. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the importance of working with stakeholders to co-design models of care for people with dementia that take into account the local communities’ needs. Findings pave the way for the development of a potential new “gold standard” memory clinic model of care and operationalise new national clinical guidelines

Measurement of the scintillation time spectra and pulse-shape discrimination of low-energy beta and nuclear recoils in liquid argon with DEAP-1

The DEAP-1 low-background liquid argon detector was used to measure scintillation pulse shapes of electron and nuclear recoil events and to demonstrate the feasibility of pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) down to an electron-equivalent energy of 20 keV. In the surface dataset using a triple-coincidence tag we found the fraction of beta events that are misidentified as nuclear recoils to be $<1.4\times 10^{-7}$ (90% C.L.) for energies between 43-86 keVee and for a nuclear recoil acceptance of at least 90%, with 4% systematic uncertainty on the absolute energy scale. The discrimination measurement on surface was limited by nuclear recoils induced by cosmic-ray generated neutrons. This was improved by moving the detector to the SNOLAB underground laboratory, where the reduced background rate allowed the same measurement with only a double-coincidence tag. The combined data set contains $1.23\times10^8$ events. One of those, in the underground data set, is in the nuclear-recoil region of interest. Taking into account the expected background of 0.48 events coming from random pileup, the resulting upper limit on the electronic recoil contamination is $<2.7\times10^{-8}$ (90% C.L.) between 44-89 keVee and for a nuclear recoil acceptance of at least 90%, with 6% systematic uncertainty on the absolute energy scale. We developed a general mathematical framework to describe PSD parameter distributions and used it to build an analytical model of the distributions observed in DEAP-1. Using this model, we project a misidentification fraction of approx. $10^{-10}$ for an electron-equivalent energy threshold of 15 keV for a detector with 8 PE/keVee light yield. This reduction enables a search for spin-independent scattering of WIMPs from 1000 kg of liquid argon with a WIMP-nucleon cross-section sensitivity of $10^{-46}$ cm$^2$, assuming negligible contribution from nuclear recoil backgrounds.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physic

Is preview benefit from word n + 2 a common effect in reading Chinese? Evidence from eye movements

Although most studies of reading English (and other alphabetic languages) have indicated that readers do not obtain preview benefit from word n + 2, Yang, Wang, Xu, and Rayner (2009) reported evidence that Chinese readers obtain preview benefit from word n + 2. However, this effect may not be common in Chinese because the character prior to the target word in Yang et al.’s experiment was always a very high frequency function word. In the current experiment, we utilized a relatively low frequency word n + 1 to examine whether an n + 2 preview benefit effect would still exist and failed to find any preview benefit from word n + 2. These results are consistent with a recent study which indicated that foveal load modulates the perceptual span during Chinese reading (Yan, Kliegl, Shu, Pan, & Zhou, 2010). Implications of these results for models of eye movement control are discussed

Intensity standardization methods in magnetic resonance imaging of head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) poses challenges in quantitative analysis because voxel intensity values lack physical meaning. While intensity standardization methods exist, their effects on head and neck MRI have not been investigated. We developed a workflow based on healthy tissue region of interest (ROI) analysis to determine intensity consistency within a patient cohort. Through this workflow, we systematically evaluated intensity standardization methods for MRI of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients.MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two HNC cohorts (30 patients total) were retrospectively analyzed. One cohort was imaged with heterogenous acquisition parameters (HET cohort), whereas the other was imaged with homogenous acquisition parameters (HOM cohort). The standard deviation of cohort-level normalized mean intensity (SD NMI c), a metric of intensity consistency, was calculated across ROIs to determine the effect of five intensity standardization methods on T2-weighted images. For each cohort, a Friedman test followed by a post-hoc Bonferroni-corrected Wilcoxon signed-rank test was conducted to compare SD NMI c among methods. RESULTS: Consistency (SD NMI c across ROIs) between unstandardized images was substantially more impaired in the HET cohort (0.29 ± 0.08) than in the HOM cohort (0.15 ± 0.03). Consequently, corrected p-values for intensity standardization methods with lower SD NMI c compared to unstandardized images were significant in the HET cohort (p &lt; 0.05) but not significant in the HOM cohort (p &gt; 0.05). In both cohorts, differences between methods were often minimal and nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings stress the importance of intensity standardization, either through the utilization of uniform acquisition parameters or specific intensity standardization methods, and the need for testing intensity consistency before performing quantitative analysis of HNC MRI.</p