An analog computer study of the effectiveness of interceptor commands derived from a prediction equation of second order

Analog computer study of effectiveness of interceptor commands derived from prediction equation of second orde

Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles: Beyond the mass action principle

We present a Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles within a population sample during its growing and equilibrium states by introducing two different vaccination schedules of one and two doses. We study the effects of the contact rate per unit time $\xi$ as well as the initial conditions on the persistence of the disease. We found a weak effect of the initial conditions while the disease persists when $\xi$ lies in the range 1/L-10/L ($L$ being the latent period). Further comparison with existing data, prediction of future epidemics and other estimations of the vaccination efficiency are provided. Finally, we compare our approach to the models using the mass action principle in the first and another epidemic region and found the incidence independent of the number of susceptibles after the epidemic peak while it strongly fluctuates in its growing region. This method can be easily applied to other human, animals and vegetable diseases and includes more complicated parameters.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, Submitted to Phys.Rev.

The equity dimension in evaluations of the quality and outcomes framework: A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pay-for-performance systems raise concerns regarding inequity in health care because providers might select patients for whom targets can easily be reached. This paper aims to describe the evolution of pre-existing (in)equity in health care in the period after the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) in the UK and to describe (in)equities in exception reporting. In this evaluation, a theory-based framework conceptualising equity in terms of equal access, equal treatment and equal treatment outcomes for people in equal need is used to guide the work.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic MEDLINE and Econlit search identified 317 studies. Of these, 290 were excluded because they were not related to the evaluation of QOF, they lacked an equity dimension in the evaluation, their qualitative research focused on experiences or on the nature of the consultation, or unsuitable methodology was used to pronounce upon equity after the introduction of QOF.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>None of the publications (n = 27) assessed equity in access to health care. Concerning equity in treatment and (intermediate) treatment outcomes, overall quality scores generally improved. For the majority of the observed indicators, all citizens benefit from this improvement, yet the extent to which different patient groups benefit tends to vary and to be highly dependent on the type and complexity of the indicator(s) under study, the observed patient group(s) and the characteristics of the study. In general, the introduction of QOF was favourable for the aged and for males. Total QOF scores did not seem to vary according to ethnicity. For deprivation, small but significant residual differences were observed after the introduction of QOF favouring less deprived groups. These differences are mainly due to differences at the practice level. The variance in exception reporting according to gender and socio-economic position is low.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although QOF seems not to be socially selective at first glance, this does not mean QOF does not contribute to the inverse care law. Introducing different targets for specific patient groups and including appropriate, non-disease specific and patient-centred indicators that grasp the complexity of primary care might refine the equity dimension of the evaluation of QOF. Also, information on the actual uptake of care, information at the patient level and monitoring of individuals' health care utilisation tracks could make large contributions to an in-depth evaluation. Finally, evaluating pay-for-quality initiatives in a broader health systems impact assessment strategy with equity as a full assessment criterion is of utmost importance.</p

The effective action of D6-branes in N=1 type IIA orientifolds

We use a Kaluza-Klein reduction to compute the low-energy effective action for the massless modes of a spacetime-filling D6-brane wrapped on a special Lagrangian 3-cycle of a type IIA Calabi-Yau orientifold. The modifications to the characteristic data of the N=1 bulk orientifold theory in the presence of a D6-brane are analysed by studying the underlying Type IIA supergravity coupled to the brane worldvolume in the democratic formulation and performing a detailed dualisation procedure. The N=1 chiral coordinates are found to be in agreement with expectations from mirror symmetry. We work out the Kahler potential for the chiral superfields as well as the gauge kinetic functions for the bulk and the brane gauge multiplets including the kinetic mixing between the two. The scalar potential resulting from the dualisation procedure can be formally interpreted in terms of a superpotential. Finally, the gauging of the Peccei-Quinn shift symmetries of the complex structure multiplets reproduces the D-term potential enforcing the calibration condition for special Lagrangian 3-cycles.Comment: 48 pages, v2: typos corrected, references adde

Need for weight management in Switzerland: findings from National Blood Pressure Week 2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Swiss Health Survey (SHS) provides the only source of data for monitoring overweight and obesity in the general population in Switzerland. However, this survey reports body mass index (BMI) based on self-reported height and weight, and is therefore subject to measurement errors. Moreover, it is not possible to differentiate between overall and abdominal overweight. In this study, we aimed to gain a better understanding of the need for weight management in the general population of Switzerland by exploring and comparing prevalence rates of BMI and waist circumference (WC) based on physical measurements by trained observers, based on data from the 2009 National Blood Pressure Week (NBPW).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sample selection was based on a one-stage cluster design. A total of 385 pharmacies representing 3,600 subjects were randomly selected from pharmacies participating in NBPW. BMI measures based on physical weight and height (NBPW) were compared with self-reported BMI measures from the SHS. BMI and WC measurements from NBPW were then used to produce population estimates of overweight and obesity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>BMI-based overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 43.6%, which was 4.7% higher than the value based on the respective SHS data. Overweight and obesity were more common in men (54.3%) than in women (33.5%). However, the overall prevalence of increased WC in the general population was estimated to be 64.4%, with more women (68.4%) than men (60.1%) exhibiting a WC above the threshold. The prevalence of subjects requiring weight management in the Swiss population remained high, even after adjusting WC for false positive and negative cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Firstly, it may be more appropriate for health promotion programs to address the wider group identified by WC, which includes subjects who need to reduce their weight, or gain no further weight. Secondly, the gender differences are reversed depending on the use of WC or BMI to identify subjects suitable for health promotion programs; more women than men are identified by WC, and more men than women using BMI. These differences should be accounted for in gender-specific health promotion programs.</p

Daidzein Prevents the Increase in CD4+CD28null T Cells and B Lymphopoesis in Ovariectomized Mice: A Key Mechanism for Anti-Osteoclastogenic Effect

Estrogen deficiency leads to an upregulation of TNF-α producing T cells and B-lymphopoesis which augments osteoclastogenesis. Estrogen deficiency also increases the population of premature senescent CD4+CD28null T cells which secrete a higher amount of TNF-α thus leading to enhanced osteoclastogenesis. Isoflavonoids like daidzein and genistein are found mostly in soybeans, legumes, and peas. These share structural similarity with 17β-stradiol (E2) and have osteoprotective role. This study explores the effect of daidzein (Daid) on the proliferation of TNF-α producing T cells, premature senescent T cells and B cell lymphopoesis under estrogen deficient conditions. For this study adult Balb/c mice were treated with Daid at 10 mg/kg body weight dose by oral gavage daily post ovariectomy (Ovx). After six weeks animals were autopsied and bone marrow and spleen cells were collected for FACS analysis. Blood serum was collected for ELISA. It was observed that Ovx mice treated with Daid for six weeks show reduction in Ovx induced expansion of CD4+ T cells in bone marrow and spleen when analysed by flow cytometry. Estrogen deficiency led to increased prevalence of TNF-α secreting CD4+CD28null T cells, however, treatment with Daid increased the percentage of CD4+CD28+ T cells. Co-culture of CD4+CD28null T cells and bone marrow resulted in enhanced osteoclastogenesis as evident by increased tartarate resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) expression, an osteoclast marker. However, treatment with Daid resulted in reduced osteoclastogenesis in CD4+CD28null T cells and bone marrow cell co-culture. Daid also regulated B lymphopoesis and decreased mRNA levels of RANKL in B220+ cells. Taken together, we propose that one of the mechanisms by which Daid prevents bone loss is by reversing the detrimental immune changes as a result of estrogen deficiency

Real World Learning and Authentic Assessment

As students increasingly adopt a consumerist lifestyle academics are under pressure to assess and mark more students’ assignments in quicker turn around periods. In no other area is the marketisation shift between student and academic more apparent in the accountability that academics now need to demonstrate to students in their grading and feedback (Boud & Molloy, 2013). When evaluating their higher education experience students are most likely to complain about their grading or feedback (Boud & Molloy, 2013) and National Student Survey results consistently indicate that this category, more than any other, has the highest student dissatisfaction rates (Race, 2014)

Real World Learning: Simulation and Gaming

Simulations and games are being used across a variety of subject areas as a means to provide insight into real world situations within a classroom setting; they offer many of the benefits of real world learning but without some of the associated risks and costs. Lean, Moizer, Derham, Strachan and Bhuiyan aim to evaluate the role of simulations and games in real world learning. The nature of simulations and games is discussed with reference to a variety of examples in Higher Education. Their role in real world learning is evaluated with reference to the benefits and challenges of their use for teaching and learning in Higher Education. Three case studies from diverse subject contexts are reported to illustrate the use of simulations and games and some of the associated issues

Stochastic Dominance Analysis of CTA Funds

In this paper, we employ the stochastic dominance approach to rank the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTA) funds. An advantage of this approach is that it alleviates the problems that can arise if CTA returns are not normally distributed by utilizing the entire returns distribution. We find both first-order and higher-order stochastic dominance relationships amongst the CTA funds and conclude that investors would be better off investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their expected utilities and expected wealth. However, for higher-order dominant CTA, riskaverse investors can maximize their expected utilities but not their expected wealth. We conclude that the stochastic dominance approach is more appropriate compared with traditional approaches as a filter in the CTA selection process given that a meaningful economic interpretation of the results is possible as the entire return distribution is utilized when returns are non-normal