The roles of static stability and tropical – extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector’s interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill

The potential for quality assurance systems to save costs and lives:the case of early infant diagnosis of HIV

OBJECTIVES: Scaling up of point-of-care testing (POCT) for early infant diagnosis of HIV (EID) could reduce the large gap in infant testing. However, suboptimal POCT EID could have limited impact and potentially high avoidable costs. This study models the cost-effectiveness of a quality assurance system to address testing performance and screening interruptions, due to, for example, supply stockouts, in Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe, with varying HIV epidemics and different health systems. METHODS: We modelled a quality assurance system-raised EID quality from suboptimal levels: that is, from misdiagnosis rates of 5%, 10% and 20% and EID testing interruptions in months, to uninterrupted optimal performance (98.5% sensitivity, 99.9% specificity). For each country, we estimated the 1-year impact and cost-effectiveness (US$/DALY averted) of improved scenarios in averting missed HIV infections and unneeded HIV treatment costs for false-positive diagnoses. RESULTS: The modelled 1-year costs of a national POCT quality assurance system range from US$ 69 359 in South Africa to US$334 341 in Zimbabwe. At the country level, quality assurance systems could potentially avert between 36 and 711 missed infections (i.e. false negatives) per year and unneeded treatment costs between US$ 5808 and US$ 739 030. CONCLUSIONS: The model estimates adding effective quality assurance systems are cost-saving in four of the five countries within the first year. Starting EQA requires an initial investment but will provide a positive return on investment within five years by averting the costs of misdiagnoses and would be even more efficient if implemented across multiple applications of POCT

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic: how have immunology societies contributed?

The COVID-19 pandemic is shining a spotlight on the field of immunology like never before. To appreciate the diverse ways in which immunologists have contributed, Nature Reviews Immunology invited the president of the International Union of Immunological Societies and the presidents of 15 other national immunology societies to discuss how they and their members responded following the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Modulation of innate immune responses at birth by prenatal malaria exposure and association with malaria risk during the first year of life.

BACKGROUND: Factors driving inter-individual differences in immune responses upon different types of prenatal malaria exposure (PME) and subsequent risk of malaria in infancy remain poorly understood. In this study, we examined the impact of four types of PME (i.e., maternal peripheral infection and placental acute, chronic, and past infections) on both spontaneous and toll-like receptors (TLRs)-mediated cytokine production in cord blood and how these innate immune responses modulate the risk of malaria during the first year of life. METHODS: We conducted a birth cohort study of 313 mother-child pairs nested within the COSMIC clinical trial (NCT01941264), which was assessing malaria preventive interventions during pregnancy in Burkina Faso. Malaria infections during pregnancy and infants' clinical malaria episodes detected during the first year of life were recorded. Supernatant concentrations of 30 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors induced by stimulation of cord blood with agonists of TLRs 3, 7/8, and 9 were measured by quantitative suspension array technology. Crude concentrations and ratios of TLR-mediated cytokine responses relative to background control were analyzed. RESULTS: Spontaneous production of innate immune biomarkers was significantly reduced in cord blood of infants exposed to malaria, with variation among PME groups, as compared to those from the non-exposed control group. However, following TLR7/8 stimulation, which showed higher induction of cytokines/chemokines/growth factors than TLRs 3 and 9, cord blood cells of infants with evidence of past placental malaria were hyper-responsive in comparison to those of infants not-exposed. In addition, certain biomarkers, which levels were significantly modified depending on the PME category, were independent predictors of either malaria risk (GM-CSF TLR7/8 crude) or protection (IL-12 TLR7/8 ratio and IP-10 TLR3 crude, IL-1RA TLR7/8 ratio) during the first year of life. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that past placental malaria has a profound effect on fetal immune system and that the differential alterations of innate immune responses by PME categories might drive heterogeneity between individuals to clinical malaria susceptibility during the first year of life

Impact of 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns on particulate air pollution across Europe

To fight against the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020, lockdown measures were implemented in most European countries. These lockdowns had well-documented effects on human mobility. We assessed the impact of the lockdown implementation and relaxation on air pollution by comparing daily particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) concentrations, as well as particle number size distributions (PNSDs) and particle light absorption coefficient in situ measurement data, with values that would have been expected if no COVID-19 epidemic had occurred at 28 sites across Europe for the period 17 February–31 May 2020. Expected PM, NO2 and O3 concentrations were calculated from the 2020 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) ensemble forecasts, combined with 2019 CAMS ensemble forecasts and measurement data. On average, lockdown implementations did not lead to a decrease in PM2.5 mass concentrations at urban sites, while relaxations resulted in a +26 ± 21 % rebound. The impacts of lockdown implementation and relaxation on NO2 concentrations were more consistent (−29 ± 17 and +31 ± 30 %, respectively). The implementation of the lockdown measures also induced statistically significant increases in O3 concentrations at half of all sites (+13 % on average). An enhanced oxidising capacity of the atmosphere could have boosted the production of secondary aerosol at those places. By comparison with 2017–2019 measurement data, a significant change in the relative contributions of wood and fossil fuel burning to the concentration of black carbon during the lockdown was detected at 7 out of 14 sites. The contribution of particles smaller than 70 nm to the total number of particles significantly also changed at most of the urban sites, with a mean decrease of −7 ± 5 % coinciding with the lockdown implementation. Our study shows that the response of PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations to lockdown measures was not systematic at various sites across Europe for multiple reasons, the relationship between road traffic intensity and particulate air pollution being more complex than expected.</p

Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy

Zonal-mean storm track shifts in response to perturbations in climate occur even in ide- alized simulations of dry atmospheres with axisymmetric forcing. Nonetheless, a generally accepted theory of the mechanisms controlling the storm track shifts is still lacking. Here mean available potential energy (MAPE), a general measure of baroclinicity that is propor- tional to the square of the Eady growth rate, is used to understand storm track shifts. It is demonstrated that, in dry atmospheres, the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in a storm track is linearly related to the mean available potential energy, relative to a local reference state, and that maxima of the two are generally collocated in latitude. Changes in MAPE with climate are then decomposed into components. It is shown that in simulations of dry atmospheres, changes in the latitude of maximum MAPE are dominated by changes in near-surface merid- ional temperature gradients. By contrast, changes in the magnitude of MAPE are primarily determined by changes in static stability and in the depth of the troposphere. A theory of storm track shifts may build upon these findings and primarily needs to explain changes in near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The terminus of the Hadley circulation often shifts in tandem with storm tracks and is hypothesized to play an important role in triggering the storm track shifts seen in this idealized dry context, especially in simulations where increases only in the convective static stability in the deep tropics suffice to shift storm tracks poleward