Regiones españolas y perturbaciones: un análisis empírico

RESUMEN: Este trabajo trata de identificar el tipo de perturbaciones que han sufrido las regiones españolas en las últimas décadas. Para ello, a partir de datos de VAB y precios de cada región, se plantea un modelo representado en forma de espacio de los estados, aplicándose el filtro de Kalman para identificar los componentes no observables. La principal conclusión que se obtiene es que la mayoría de las perturbaciones han sido de carácter simétrico, teniendo las perturbaciones asimétricas un papel destacado en muy pocas comunidades. Asimismo, se concluye que los efectos de los shocks son, en general, duraderos, y que parece que las perturbaciones de oferta prevalecen, aunque muy ligeramente, sobre las de demanda.ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to analyze the nature of potential shocks that have occurred in Spanish regions during the last few decades. Using GAV and price data, this paper addresses this issue empirically by applying the state-space models and the Kalman Filter methodology. The main conclusions are as follows: first, it appears that the shocks that have affected the Spanish regions have been mostly symmetric; second, the effects have been, in general, persistent rather than transitory; and finally, supply shocks have been slightly more frequent than demand shocks

¿Convergencia y flexibilidad salarial?: un análisis para las provincias españolas

RESUMEN: Este trabajo analiza, para el caso de las provincias españolas durante el periodo 1995-2001, dos cuestiones importantes en el devenir de la UME: la convergencia y el grado de flexibilidad salarial. La primera se analiza, atendiendo a los salarios reales, tanto desde el punto de vista clásico como exploratorio y espacial. En la segunda se utilizan técnicas de estimación paramétricas y semiparamétricas. Las principales conclusiones que se extraen son las siguientes: a) Existe un proceso de convergencia salarial entre las provincias españolas; b) La movilidad intradistribucional es, sin embargo, reducida; c) Se pone de relieve la existencia de efectos espaciales y su tratamiento incrementa la velocidad de convergencia; d) La flexibilidad salarial es escasa; e) No parece viable conseguir avanzar en el proceso de convergencia y, al mismo tiempo, incrementar la flexibilidad salarial.ABSTRACT: This article analyzes, for the Spanish regions during the period 1995-2001, two questions that have important implications for the future of the European Monetary Union: the convergence and the level of flexibility in wages. We analyze the first in terms of real wages both from the classical perspective and from the exploratory and spatial perspectives. In the second we use parametric and semiparametric estimation techniques. The main conclusions that we draw are as follows: a) there is a process of wage convergence between the Spanish provinces; b) the intra-distributional mobility is, however, low; c) we observe some spatial effects, and when these are taken into account the rate of convergence rises; d) wage flexibility is low; and e) it does not appear to be viable to make progress in convergence and improve wage flexibility simultaneously

Flexibilidad regional de los salarios en España y Unión Monetaria Europea

Este trabajo analiza uno de los principales mecanismos de ajuste alternativos a las variaciones en el tipo de cambio en el seno de la UME: la flexibilidad salarial. Se comienza realizando un análisis descriptivo para ofrecer posteriormente evidencia econométrica sobre la flexibilidad regional de los salarios en España, utilizando tanto técnicas de estimación paramétricas como semiparamétricas. Por último se realizan algunas consideraciones acerca de si la UME puede contribuir a aumentar el grado de flexibilidad regional de los salarios. La conclusión general que se obtiene es que los salarios son muy rígidos a escala regional y que parece que el impacto de la UME sobre ellos, aunque favorable, será reducido

La distribución regional de la renta y su polarización en la Unión Europea

•En este trabajo se analiza la distribución regional de la renta en la Unión Europea entre 1980 y 1996 por medio de técnicas no paramétricas. Asimismo, se evidencia la existencia de polarización y se utilizan técnicas de estadística espacial para identificar los distintos polos. El trabajo concluye que: a) la forma de la distribución regional de la renta ha variado de forma significativa; b) el grado de movilidad no es muy elevado; c) existe polarización y se pueden diferenciar en términos muy generales, dos grandes grupos de renta, los cuales se sitúan en el norte (altos niveles de renta) y en el sur de Europa (regiones con baja renta).This paper analyses the regional distribution of income in Europe for the period 1980-1996 by means of non-parametric techniques. In addition, it shows the existence of polarisation and it employs spatial statistic techniques to identify the poles. The main conclusions of this paper are: a) the shape of the per capita income regional distribution has varied between 1980 and 1996; b) the degree of mobility is not very high; c) the polarisation between the European regions exists and there are, in general terms, two large groups of income, which locate themselves in the north (group of high levels of income) and in the south of Europe (low income regions)

El impacto del TTIP en los países europeos: una evaluación ex-ante.

ABSTRACT. The EU and the US are involved currently in discussions of what is called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Up to now, there have been several attempts to assess the economic impact of the TTIP, both at the EU-wide level and for some of the EU countries. None of these studies, however, pays any attention to the potential impact of the TTIP on every EU country, which is the main aim of this paper. In a nutshell, the main findings indicate that the effects of the TTIP agreement are going to be small, albeit positive, and not equally distributed. More specifically, the most developed countries tend to be those that, potentially, will undergo a higher increase in their trade with the US, so they are more likely to reap benefits from the TTIP than the less developed countries. This being so, the TTIP will (weakly) increase cross-country disparities.RESUMEN. La UE y Estados Unidos están embarcados en conversaciones sobre lo que se llama el “Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)”. Ha habido, hasta ahora, varios intentos de evaluar el impacto económico del TTIP, tanto a nivel europeo como para algún país en particular. Ninguno de estos estudios, sin embargo, presta atención al impacto del TTIP sobre cada país europeo, principal objetivo de este trabajo. De forma resumida, los principales resultados indican que los efectos del TTIP van a ser positivos aunque reducidos, y no van a estar distribuidos de forma equitativa. De forma más precisa, los países más desarrollados tienden a ser los que, potencialmente, experimentarán un mayor incremento en el comercio con Estados Unidos, por lo que resultarán más beneficiados que los países menos desarrollados. Siendo esto así, el TTIP incrementará (débilmente) las disparidades entre países

A note on the need to account for spatial dependence: a case of migratory flows in Spain.

ABSTRACT. The potential existence of spatial dependence in the relevant literature on migratory flows has not been dealt with sufficiently. This paper tries to fill this gap by applying spatial statistic techniques to the Spanish case. First, the paper shows that there is indeed spatial dependence in some of the variables conventionally included in migration equations. Second, these variables are filtered to remove spatial dependence. Third, in order to evaluate the influence of spatial dependence on migration, a conventional migration equation is estimated with both actual and filtered data, revealing key differences. Spatial dependence clearly matters in migration analysis

The determinants of inward foreign direct investment: evidence from the European regions.

The aim of this paper is to study the determinants of FDI in the 260 EU NUTS2 regions between 2000 and 2006. After reviewing the relevant literature and the major traits of the FDI regional distribution in the EU, we analyse its drivers. First, we specify the model and perform a factor analysis to reduce the vast number of potential determinants to a manageable size. Afterwards, we estimate a reduced version of the model with the extracted factors as independent variables. We find that economic potential, labour market characteristics, technological progress and competitiveness exert a significant impact on FDI location patterns; in contrast, market size and labour regulation do not seem to play any noteworthy role. Finally, we perform some robustness tests to make sure the results are not sensitive to outliers, spatial dependence, size of regions, endogeneity and the consideration of just the top 50 FDI recipient regions

The role of spillovers in okun's law: Empirical evidence from spain

The Great Recession of the late 2000s has brought to the fore, once again, the relevance of the relationship between output performance and labour market developments all over the world. This paper analyses the validity of Okun's law in Spain by using regional data from 2000 to 2014, which roughly encompasses a complete business cycle. By estimating a Spatial Panel Durbin Model, the results not only show that a robust, inverse relationship between unemployment and output holds for Spain but also the existence of regional spillovers (indirect effects). In addition, they reveal that there are no time asymmetries between the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle and that human capital, the share of the construction sector, and the share of temporary workers are key factors in explaining unemployment changes. From a policy perspective, our findings support the idea of implementing region-specific policies, since indirect effects are less relevant than direct ones. In any case, national policies would also be effective. These policies, whatever their scope, should be mainly supply-side oriented in expansions (largely labour market policies) and demand-side focused in contractions

Okun’s law in the Spanish regions.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse Okun’s law for Spain and its seventeen regions over the period 1980-2004. Based on its “gap” specification and using two different detrending techniques, the results show that an inverse relationship between unemployment and output holds for most of the Spanish regions and for the whole country. However, the quantitative values of Okun’s coefficients for these regions are quite different. In addition, the coefficients for each region varied across the two detrending techniques. Even so, these coefficients are lower than those initially estimated by Okun and others

Interregional migration in Spain: a semiparametric analysis

This paper analyses the determinants of internal migration in Spain between 1995 and 2002. After a brief descriptive study, we present an analytical model of internal migration flows. Subsequently, we estimate this model by applying semiparametric techniques. The general conclusion that we come to is that net migration rates are influenced mainly by income and climatic condition differentials between the regions of origin and destination; in addition, unemployment and housing price differentials seem to have a much weaker effect while variables such as aggregate unemployment, on the one hand, and human capital and population density differentials, on the other, do not affect net migration rates