Meteorological forecasts and the pricing of weather derivatives

In usual pricing approaches for weather derivatives, forward-looking information such as meteorological weather forecasts is not considered. Thus, important knowledge used by market participants is ignored in theory. By extending a standard model for the daily temperature, this paper allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of weather derivative pricing and is able to estimate the information gain compared to a benchmark model without meteorological forecasts. This approach is applied for temperature futures referring to New York, Minneapolis and Cincinnati with forecast data 13 days in advance. Despite this relatively short forecast horizon, the models using meteorological forecasts outperform the classical approach and more accurately forecast the market prices of the temperature futures traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Moreover, a concentration on the last two months or on days with actual trading improves the results.Weather forecasting, weather risk, price forecasting, nancial markets, temperature futures, CME

Increased Dimensionality of Raman Cooling in a Slightly Nonorthogonal Optical Lattice

We experimentally study the effect of a slight nonorthogonality in a two-dimensional optical lattice onto resolved-sideband Raman cooling. We find that when the trap frequencies of the two lattice directions are equal, the trap frequencies of the combined potential exhibit an avoided crossing and the corresponding eigenmodes are rotated by 45 degrees relative to the lattice beams. Hence, tuning the trap frequencies makes it possible to rotate the eigenmodes such that both eigenmodes have a large projection onto any desired direction in the lattice plane, in particular, onto the direction along which Raman cooling works. Using this, we achieve two-dimensional Raman ground-state cooling in a geometry where this would be impossible, if the eigenmodes were not rotated. Our experiment is performed with a single atom inside an optical resonator but this is inessential and the scheme is expected to work equally well in other situations

Breakdown of atomic hyperfine coupling in a deep optical-dipole trap

We experimentally study the breakdown of hyperfine coupling for an atom in a deep optical-dipole trap. One-color laser spectroscopy is performed at the resonance lines of a single $^{87}$Rb atom for a trap wavelength of 1064 nm. Evidence of hyperfine breakdown comes from three observations, namely a nonlinear dependence of the transition frequencies on the trap intensity, a splitting of lines which are degenerate for small intensities, and the ability to drive transitions which would be forbidden by selection rules in the absence of hyperfine breakdown. From the data, we infer the hyperfine interval of the $5P_{1/2}$ state and the scalar and tensor polarizabilities for the $5P_{3/2}$ state

Thermal Fingerprinting—Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Computational Loads

Digital fingerprinting is used in several domains to identify and track variable activities and processes. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to categorize and recognize computational tasks based on thermal system information. The concept focuses on all kinds of data center environments to control required cooling capacity dynamically. The concept monitors basic thermal sensor data from each server and chassis entity. The respective, characteristic curves are merged with additional general system information, such as CPU load behavior, memory usage, and I/O characteristics. This results in two-dimensional thermal fingerprints, which are unique and achievable. The fingerprints are used as input for an adaptive, pre-active air-conditioning control system. This allows a precise estimation of the data center health status. First test cases and reference scenarios clarify a huge potential for energy savings without any negative aspects regarding health status or durability. In consequence, we provide a cost-efficient, light-weight, and flexible solution to optimize the energy-efficiency for a huge number of existing, conventional data center environments

Sachkundigenanhörung im sächsischen Landtag, Ausschuss für Schule und Bildung: Thema: „Längeres gemeinsames Lernen in Sachsen“: Entwurf eines Gesetzes zur Einführung der Gemeinschaftsschule im Freistaat Sachsen

In der Sachkundigenanhörung im sächsischen Landtag, Ausschuss für Schule und Bildung, zum Thema: „Längeres gemeinsames Lernen in Sachsen“ wurde der Entwurf eines Gesetzes zur Einführung der Gemeinschaftsschule im Freistaat Sachsen ausgehend von einem Volksantrag diskutiert. Dr. Matthias Ritter, beteiligt an der wissenschaftlichen Begleitung der Thüringer Gemeinschaftsschulen sowie an den sächsischen Schulversuchsschulen stellt fünf Gründe aus Sicht der Bildungsforschung dar, die für ein integratives Bildungssystem sprechen und bewertet die Gesetzesvorlage im Hinblick auf die sächsischen Schulen

Dietmar K. Pfeiffer / Carsten Püttmann: Methoden empirischer Forschung in der Erziehungswissenschaft. Eine Einführung. Münster: Waxmann 2018 (220 S.) [Rezension]

Rezension von: Dietmar K. Pfeiffer / Carsten Püttmann: Methoden empirischer Forschung in der Erziehungswissenschaft. Eine Einführung. Münster: Waxmann 2018 (220 S.; ISBN 978-3-8309-3848-4; 19,90 EUR)

Processing of biocompatible materials on a polymer basis by a lowtemperature plasma at atmospheric pressure

In the present work we investigated the effect of low-temperature treatment in the flow of argon on composite materials based on Poly-L-lactide/Hydroxyapatite (PL/HA) in the ratio of 70/30 and hydroxyapatite and lactide and glycolide copolymer (SLG-HA) in the ratio of 10/90. Physical-chemical properties were obtained by investigation of phase state of the modified surface layer by X-ray analysis, chemical composition by IR-spectroscopy, as well as contact angle

COVID-19: a simple statistical model for predicting intensive care unit load in exponential phases of the disease

One major bottleneck in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the limited number of critical care beds. Due to the dynamic development of infections and the time lag between when patients are infected and when a proportion of them enters an intensive care unit (ICU), the need for future intensive care can easily be underestimated. To infer future ICU load from reported infections, we suggest a simple statistical model that (1) accounts for time lags and (2) allows for making predictions depending on different future growth of infections. We have evaluated our model for three heavily affected regions in Europe, namely Berlin (Germany), Lombardy (Italy), and Madrid (Spain). Before extensive containment measures made an impact, we first estimate the region-specific model parameters, namely ICU rate, time lag between infection, and ICU admission as well as length of stay in ICU. Whereas for Berlin, an ICU rate of 6%, a time lag of 6 days, and a stay of 12 days in ICU provide the best fit of the data, for Lombardy and Madrid the ICU rate was higher (18% and 15%) and the time lag (0 and 3 days) and the stay in ICU (3 and 8 days) shorter. The region-specific models are then used to predict future ICU load assuming either a continued exponential phase with varying growth rates (0-15%) or linear growth. By keeping the growth rates flexible, this model allows for taking into account the potential effect of diverse containment measures. Thus, the model can help to predict a potential exceedance of ICU capacity depending on future growth. A sensitivity analysis for an extended time period shows that the proposed model is particularly useful for exponential phases of the disease

Measuring Liquidity in Agricultural Land Markets

This paper contributes to the sparse empirical literature on measuring liquidity in agricultural land markets. Using data from Lower Saxony (Germany), we inspect the spatial and temporal variability of various liquidity indicators. We apply a panel vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between liquidity and prices and to identify further determinants of land market liquidity, such as supply shocks and clientele effects. Unlike in housing markets, no positive relationship between prices and market liquidity exists. We conclude that in agricultural land markets, a high demand from expanding farms absorbs supply shocks regardless of prevailing prices