USING THE CUMULATIVE-SIZE MECHANISTIC MODEL FOR ANALYZING INSECT DATA

Two data sets of aphid abundance are analyzed using a new cumulative-size based mechanistic model. The first data set pertains to the cotton aphid, and its analysis demonstrates the power of the mechanistic model-based approach. The second data set pertains to greenbug populations, and its analysis shows the key role that birth and death rate coefficients may play in predicting the peak and the cumulative population sizes

COMPARISONS OF TWO SYMMETRIC DENSITY FUNCTION SOLUTIONS OF APHID POPULATION GROWTH MODELS

Aphids are among the world\u27s most devastating crop pests, and their population trajectories in field crops are characterized by rapid boom and bust, under the influence of bottom up (host plant) and top down (natural enemy) forces. Theoretical development in aphid growth trajectory modeling has recently advanced quite significantly, and the logistic and normal probability density functions have been found to provide analytical solutions to mechanistic models of the aphid population growth dynamics. The logistic or hyperbolic secant squared model captures a growth trajectory shaped by negative feedback of the aphid population on itself, due to the accumulation of adverse effect on its host plant and the coupling with natural enemies (bottom up as well as top down effect), while the normal model can be derived on the basis of a relationship between intrinsic growth rate and the host plant phenology. In this paper, we fit both models to a large number of observed aphid population trajectors and explore model properties. It is shown that, despite the diverging mechanistic underpinnings of the model, the generated growth curves, as fitted to the data, are very similar, as are characteristics, such as the height of the peak, the time of the peak and the accumulated area under the curve. Both models are useful workhorses for capturing aphid growth dynamics, but fitting one or either model cannot be used as evidence for the underpinning mechanisms, as different underpinning mechanisms result in similar population dynamics

Moment Closure - A Brief Review

Moment closure methods appear in myriad scientific disciplines in the modelling of complex systems. The goal is to achieve a closed form of a large, usually even infinite, set of coupled differential (or difference) equations. Each equation describes the evolution of one "moment", a suitable coarse-grained quantity computable from the full state space. If the system is too large for analytical and/or numerical methods, then one aims to reduce it by finding a moment closure relation expressing "higher-order moments" in terms of "lower-order moments". In this brief review, we focus on highlighting how moment closure methods occur in different contexts. We also conjecture via a geometric explanation why it has been difficult to rigorously justify many moment closure approximations although they work very well in practice.Comment: short survey paper (max 20 pages) for a broad audience in mathematics, physics, chemistry and quantitative biolog

Limits on diffuse fluxes of high energy extraterrestrial neutrinos with the AMANDA-B10 detector

Data from the AMANDA-B10 detector taken during the austral winter of 1997 have been searched for a diffuse flux of high energy extraterrestrial muon-neutrinos, as predicted from, e.g., the sum of all active galaxies in the universe. This search yielded no excess events above those expected from the background atmospheric neutrinos, leading to upper limits on the extraterrestrial neutrino flux. For an assumed E^-2 spectrum, a 90% classical confidence level upper limit has been placed at a level E^2 Phi(E) = 8.4 x 10^-7 GeV cm^-2 s^-1 sr^-1 (for a predominant neutrino energy range 6-1000 TeV) which is the most restrictive bound placed by any neutrino detector. When specific predicted spectral forms are considered, it is found that some are excluded.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Inclusive Dielectron Cross Sections in p+p and p+d Interactions at Beam Energies from 1.04 to 4.88 GeV

Measurements of dielectron production in p+p and p+d collisions with beam kinetic energies from 1.04 to 4.88 GeV are presented. The differential cross section is presented as a function of invariant pair mass, transverse momentum, and rapidity. The shapes of the mass spectra and their evolution with beam energy provide information about the relative importance of the various dielectron production mechanisms in this energy regime. The p+d to p+p ratio of the dielectron yield is also presented as a function of invariant pair mass, transverse momentum, and rapidity. The shapes of the transverse momentum and rapidity spectra from the p+d and p+p systems are found to be similar to one another for each of the beam energies studied. The beam energy dependence of the integrated cross sections is also presented.Comment: 15 pages and 16 figure

IceCube - the next generation neutrino telescope at the South Pole

IceCube is a large neutrino telescope of the next generation to be constructed in the Antarctic Ice Sheet near the South Pole. We present the conceptual design and the sensitivity of the IceCube detector to predicted fluxes of neutrinos, both atmospheric and extra-terrestrial. A complete simulation of the detector design has been used to study the detector's capability to search for neutrinos from sources such as active galaxies, and gamma-ray bursts.Comment: 8 pages, to be published with the proceedings of the XXth International Conference on Neutrino Physics and Astrophysics, Munich 200

Search for Point Sources of High Energy Neutrinos with AMANDA

This paper describes the search for astronomical sources of high-energy neutrinos using the AMANDA-B10 detector, an array of 302 photomultiplier tubes, used for the detection of Cherenkov light from upward traveling neutrino-induced muons, buried deep in ice at the South Pole. The absolute pointing accuracy and angular resolution were studied by using coincident events between the AMANDA detector and two independent telescopes on the surface, the GASP air Cherenkov telescope and the SPASE extensive air shower array. Using data collected from April to October of 1997 (130.1 days of livetime), a general survey of the northern hemisphere revealed no statistically significant excess of events from any direction. The sensitivity for a flux of muon neutrinos is based on the effective detection area for through-going muons. Averaged over the Northern sky, the effective detection area exceeds 10,000 m^2 for E_{mu} ~ 10 TeV. Neutrinos generated in the atmosphere by cosmic ray interactions were used to verify the predicted performance of the detector. For a source with a differential energy spectrum proportional to E_{nu}^{-2} and declination larger than +40 degrees, we obtain E^2(dN_{nu}/dE) <= 10^{-6}GeVcm^{-2}s^{-1} for an energy threshold of 10 GeV.Comment: 46 pages, 22 figures, 4 tables, submitted to Ap.

Muon Track Reconstruction and Data Selection Techniques in AMANDA

The Antarctic Muon And Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA) is a high-energy neutrino telescope operating at the geographic South Pole. It is a lattice of photo-multiplier tubes buried deep in the polar ice between 1500m and 2000m. The primary goal of this detector is to discover astrophysical sources of high energy neutrinos. A high-energy muon neutrino coming through the earth from the Northern Hemisphere can be identified by the secondary muon moving upward through the detector. The muon tracks are reconstructed with a maximum likelihood method. It models the arrival times and amplitudes of Cherenkov photons registered by the photo-multipliers. This paper describes the different methods of reconstruction, which have been successfully implemented within AMANDA. Strategies for optimizing the reconstruction performance and rejecting background are presented. For a typical analysis procedure the direction of tracks are reconstructed with about 2 degree accuracy.Comment: 40 pages, 16 Postscript figures, uses elsart.st

Limits to the muon flux from WIMP annihilation in the center of the Earth with the AMANDA detector

A search for nearly vertical up-going muon-neutrinos from neutralino annihilations in the center of the Earth has been performed with the AMANDA-B10 neutrino detector. The data sample collected in 130.1 days of live-time in 1997, ~10^9 events, has been analyzed for this search. No excess over the expected atmospheric neutrino background is oberved. An upper limit at 90% confidence level on the annihilation rate of neutralinos in the center of the Earth is obtained as a function of the neutralino mass in the range 100 GeV-5000 GeV, as well as the corresponding muon flux limit.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures. Version accepted for publication in Physical Review

Sensitivity of the IceCube Detector to Astrophysical Sources of High Energy Muon Neutrinos

We present the results of a Monte-Carlo study of the sensitivity of the planned IceCube detector to predicted fluxes of muon neutrinos at TeV to PeV energies. A complete simulation of the detector and data analysis is used to study the detector's capability to search for muon neutrinos from sources such as active galaxies and gamma-ray bursts. We study the effective area and the angular resolution of the detector as a function of muon energy and angle of incidence. We present detailed calculations of the sensitivity of the detector to both diffuse and pointlike neutrino emissions, including an assessment of the sensitivity to neutrinos detected in coincidence with gamma-ray burst observations. After three years of datataking, IceCube will have been able to detect a point source flux of E^2*dN/dE = 7*10^-9 cm^-2s^-1GeV at a 5-sigma significance, or, in the absence of a signal, place a 90% c.l. limit at a level E^2*dN/dE = 2*10^-9 cm^-2s^-1GeV. A diffuse E-2 flux would be detectable at a minimum strength of E^2*dN/dE = 1*10^-8 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1GeV. A gamma-ray burst model following the formulation of Waxman and Bahcall would result in a 5-sigma effect after the observation of 200 bursts in coincidence with satellite observations of the gamma-rays.Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures, 6 table