New #IGC Research: Does the current #FinancialCrisis Have an impact on sub-Saharan #Africa?

As Europe struggles to resolve the eurozone crisis, new research from the International Growth Centre (IGC), based at LSE, argues that African countries are adversely affected by financial crises among their trade partners. This post was written by the IGC’s Nicola Mastrorocco

News media and crime perceptions: evidence from a natural experiment

In democracies, voters rely on media outlets to learn about politically salient issues. This raises an important question: how strongly can media affect public perceptions? This paper uses a natural experiment - the staggered introduction of the Digital TV signal in Italy - to measure the effect of media persuasion on the perceptions individuals hold. We focus on crime perceptions and, combining channel-specific viewership and content data, we show that the reduced exposure to channels characterized by high levels of crime reporting decreases individual concerns about crime. The effect is driven by individuals aged 50 and over, who turn out to be more exposed to television while using other sources of information less frequently. Finally, we provide evidence about the effect of the digital introduction on public policies closely related to crime perceptions and on voting behaviourLuigi Minale acknowledges support from the Ministerio Economía y Competitividad (Spain), María de Maeztu grant (MDM 2014-0431), Comunidad de Madrid, MadEco-CM (S2015/HUM-3444), and Fundación Ramón Areces

Organized Crime, Captured Politicians, and the Allocation of Public Resources

What is the impact of collusion between members of criminal organizations and politicians on local public finances, in contexts in which organized crime is well-rooted? This article addresses this question by focusing on local governments of Southern Italy, over the period 1998–2016. In order to capture the presence of organized crime, we exploit the enforcement of a national law allowing the dissolution of a municipal government upon evidence of collusion between elected officials and the mafia. We measure the consequences of this infiltration of mafia groups within local governments by using data on local public finances at the municipality level. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that captured municipalities commit on average more resources for investments in construction and waste management and are less effective in collecting taxes for waste and garbage. This indicates that organized crime groups exploit the collusion with local politicians in order to distort the allocation of public resources toward key sectors of strategic interest for the criminal busines

The Rise and Fall of Social Democracy, 1918-2017

We describe the electoral history of one of Europe’s most successful party families over the past 100 years in 31 countries. With a unique and newly collected dataset of national election results, and a large number of economic and social variables mea- sured for each country-election observation, we find that two main factors drive the electoral performance of social democratic parties: public sector spending, and the size of the manufacturing sector. Our findings suggest that most of the fall in support for social democratic parties in recent years is correlated with a decline in the number of industrial workers as well as a reduction in the propensity of social democratic parties’ core supporters (industrial workers and public sector employees) to vote for them

Fracture mapping in challenging environment: a 3D virtual reality approach combining terrestrial LiDAR and high definition images

ArticleThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.The latest technological developments in computer vision allow the creation of georeferenced, non-immersive desktop virtual reality (VR) environments. VR uses a computer to produce a simulated three-dimensional world in which it is possible to interact with objects and derive metric and thematic data. In this context, modern geomatic tools enable the remote acquisition of information that can be used to produce georeferenced high-definition 3D models: these can be used to create a VR in support of rock mass data processing, analysis, and interpretation. Data from laser scanning and high quality images were combined to map deterministically and characterise discontinuities with the aim of creating accurate rock mass models. Discontinuities were compared with data from traditional engineering-geological surveys in order to check the level of accuracy in terms of the attitude of individual joints and sets. The quality of data collected through geomatic surveys and field measurements in two marble quarries of the Apuan Alps (Italy) was very satisfactory. Some fundamental geotechnical indices (e.g. joint roughness, alteration, opening, moisture, and infill) were also included in the VR models. Data were grouped, analysed, and shared in a single repository for VR visualization and stability analysis in order to study the interaction between geology and human activities.The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of the personal of the Romana Quarry and particularly Corniani M. This paper was possible because of support from the Tuscany Region Research Project known as “Health and safety in the quarries of ornamental stones—SECURECAVE”. The authors acknowledge Pellegri M and Gullì D (Local Sanitary Agency n.1, Mining Engineering Operative Unit—Department of Prevention) and Riccucci S (Centre of GeoTechnologies, University of Siena) for their support of this research

Essays in political economy

The papers in this thesis study distortions and inefficiencies that impede the correct functioning of democratic systems. I specifically focus on two phenomena: organised crime and media bias. The first paper presents an analysis of the consequences of the collusion between criminal organisations and politicians on the allocation of public resources and the collection of fiscal revenues. To measure the presence of criminal organisations it exploits newly collected data on public spending, local taxes and elected politicians at the local level. Differences-in-differences estimates reveal that infiltrated local governments not only spend more on average on construction and waste management and less on police enforcement, but also collect fewer fiscal revenues. In addition, I uncover key elements of local elections associated with mafia-government collusion. In particular, Regression Discontinuity estimates show that infiltration is more likely to occur when right-wing parties win local elections. The second paper moves on to the study of media bias and persuasive communication. In democracies voters rely on media outlets to learn about politically salient issues. This raises an important question: how strongly can media affect public perceptions? This paper uses a natural experiment – the staggered introduction of the Digital TV signal in Italy – to measure the effect of media persuasion on the perceptions individuals hold. It focuses on crime perceptions and, combining channel-specific viewership and content data, this paper shows that the reduced exposure to channels characterized by high levels of crime reporting decreases individual concerns about crime. The effect is particularly strong for the elderly who are more exposed to television and less to other sources of information. Finally, it shows that such change in crime perceptions is likely to have relevant implication for voting behaviour. The third paper continues on the study of persuasive communication by investigating whether the amount and the type of news related to sovereign debt might have played a role in the triggering of the crisis by increasing the level of uncertainty among investors. In order to test these claims empirically, I collect a unique and new dataset on news from the main media outlets in a set of 5 European Countries from September 2007 to September 2014. I restrict my search to news related to sovereign debt and, in particular, to media stories related to political aspects of the debt. Time series and dynamic panel regressions reveal that, conditional on a full set of controls and falsification tests, the frequency of news is correlated to an increase in bond prices. Both time series and panel analysis reveal a certain extent of country heterogeneity in the effect. In particular, an increase in the number of news leads to an increase in bond yields of peripheral countries. Finally, this paper also shows how it is not just the amount of news that matters, but also their tone. More precisely, negative news in country i at time t − 1 increases significantly the sovereign bond yield of country i at time t. On the opposite positive news leads to a decrease in sovereign bond yields. In sum, the three chapters of this thesis aim to contribute to the academic study of organised crime and media bias. First, this thesis provides new conceptualisation in the study of these phenomena. Second, it exploits set of newly collected dataset which will eventually constitute a public good for all the researchers interested in the study of these topics. Finally, to overcome the difficult identification challenges that the above questions pose, this thesis contributes to the literature by proposing a set of rigorous ways to claim causality in the results

Using a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) to analyze the stability of a natural rock slope

This paper describes the application of a rotary wing RPAS for monitoring the stability of a natural rock slope in the municipality of Vecchiano (Pisa, Italy). The slope under investigation is approximately oriented NNW-SSE and has a length of about 320 m; elevation ranges from about 7 to 80 m a.s.l.. The hill consists of stratified limestone, somewhere densely fractured, with dip direction predominantly oriented in a normal way respect to the slope. Fracture traces are present in variable lengths, from decimetre to metre, and penetrate inward the rock versant with thickness difficult to estimate, often exceeding one meter in depth. The intersection between different fracture systems and the slope surface generates rocky blocks and wedges of variable size that may be subject to phenomena of gravitational instability (with reference to the variation of hydraulic and dynamic conditions). Geometrical and structural info about the rock mass, necessary to perform the analysis of the slope stability, were obtained in this work from geo-referenced 3D point clouds acquired using photogrammetric and laser scanning techniques. In particular, a terrestrial laser scanning was carried out from two different point of view using a Leica Scanstation2. The laser survey created many shadows in the data due to the presence of vegetation in the lower parts of the slope and limiting the feasibility of geo-structural survey. To overcome such a limitation, we utilized a rotary wing Aibotix Aibot X6 RPAS geared with a Nikon D3200 camera. The drone flights were executed in manual modality and the images were acquired, according to the characteristics of the outcrops, under different acquisition angles. Furthermore, photos were captured very close to the versant (a few meters), allowing to produce a dense 3D point cloud (about 80 Ma points) by the image processing. A topographic survey was carried out in order to guarantee the necessary spatial accuracy to the process of images exterior orientation. The coordinates of GCPs were calculated through the post-processing of data collected by using two GPS receivers, operating in static modality, and a Total Station. The photogrammetric processing of image blocks allowed us to create the 3D point cloud, DTM, orthophoto, and 3D textured model with high level of cartographic detail. Discontinuities were deterministically characterized in terms of attitude, persistence, and spacing. Moreover, the main discontinuity sets were identified through a density analysis of attitudes in stereographic projection. In addition, the size and shape of potentially unstable blocks identified along the rock slope were measured. Finally, using additional data from traditional engineering-geological surveys executed in accessible outcrops, the kinematic and dynamic stability analysis of the rocky slope was performed. Results from this step have indicated the deterministic safety factors of rock blocks and wedges, and will be used by local Authorities to plan the protection works for safety guarantee. Results from this application show the great advantage of modern RPAS that can be successfully applied for the analysis of sub-vertical rocky slopes, especially in areas either difficult to access with traditional techniques or masked by the presence of vegetation

Open-addressing hashing with unequal-probability keys

This paper describes the use of a drone in collecting data for mapping discontinuities within a marble quarry. A topographic survey was carried out in order to guarantee high spatial accuracy in the exterior orientation of images. Photos were taken close to the slopes and at different angles, depending on the orientation of the quarry walls. This approach was used to overcome the problem of shadow areas and to obtain detailed information on any feature desired. Dense three-dimensional (3D) point clouds obtained through image processing were used to rebuild the quarry geometry. Discontinuities were then mapped deterministically in detail. Joint attitude interpretation was not always possible due to the regular shape of the cut walls; for every discontinuity set we therefore also mapped the uncertainty. This, together with additional fracture characteristics, was used to build 3D discrete fracture network models. Preliminary results reveal the advantage of modern photogrammetric systems in producing detailed orthophotos; the latter allow accurate mapping in areas difficult to access (one of the main limitations of traditional techniques). The results highlight the benefits of integrating photogrammetric data with those collected through classical methods: the resulting knowledge of the site is crucially important in instability analyses involving numerical modelling.Part of the present study was undertaken within the framework of the Italian National Research Project PRIN2009, funded by the Ministry of Education, Universities and Research, which involves the collaboration between the University of Siena, ‘La Sapienza’ University of Rome, and USL1 of Massa and Carrara (Mining Engineering Operative Unit – Department of Prevention). The authors acknowledge M. Pellegri and D. Gullì (USL1, Mining Engineering Operative Unit – Department of Prevention), M. Ferrari, M. Profeti and V. Carnicelli (Cooperativa Cavatori Lorano), X. Chaoshui and P.A. Dowd (School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, South Australia) and M. Bocci (Geographike) for their support of this research

Evaluation of the Use of UAV Photogrammetry for Rock Discontinuity Roughness Characterization

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this recordThis paper describes the results of a field investigation with the objective of evaluating the possibility to produce drone-derived 3D digital point clouds sufficiently dense and accurate to determine discontinuity surface roughness characteristics. A discontinuous rock mass in Italy was chosen as the investigation site and Structure from Motion and Multi-View Stereo techniques adopted for producing three-dimensional point clouds from the two-dimensional image sequences. Since the roughness of discontinuities depends on direction, scale and resolution of the sampling, data were always collected along the maximum slope gradient. The scale effect was evaluated by analysing discontinuity profiles of different lengths (10 cm, 30 cm, 60 cm and 100 cm), with measurements taken from drone flights flown at different distances from the rocky slopes (10 m, 20 m and 30 m). The accuracy of the derived joint roughness coefficients was evaluated by direct comparison with discontinuity profiles measured during fieldwork using conventional techniques and from contemporaneous terrestrial laser scanning. Results from this research show that 3D digital point clouds, derived from the processing of drone-flight images, were successfully used for reliable representation of discontinuity roughness for profiles longer than 60 cm, whereas less reliable results were achieved for shorter profile lengths. This, even if strictly related to this case study since several factors can affect the minimum profile length, represents a significant contribution to improve the knowledge on the use of remotely captured data for characterising the discontinuities in natural or man-made rock outcrops, particularly where access difficulties do not allow conventional engineering-geological surveys to be undertaken