ESTSS at 20 years: "a phoenix gently rising from a lava flow of European trauma"

Roderick J. Ørner, who was President between 1997 and 1999, traces the phoenix-like origins of the European Society for Traumatic Stress Studies (ESTSS) from an informal business meeting called during the 1st European Conference on Traumatic Stress (ECOTS) in 1987 to its emergence into a formally constituted society. He dwells on the challenges of tendering a trauma society within a continent where trauma has been and remains endemic. ESTSS successes are noted along with a number of personal reflections on activities that give rise to concern for the present as well as its future prospects. Denial of survivors' experiences and turning away from survivors' narratives by reframing their experiences to accommodate helpers' theory-driven imperatives are viewed with alarm. Arguments are presented for making human rights, memory, and ethics core elements of a distinctive European psycho traumatology, which will secure current ESTSS viability and future integrity

Examples of derivation-based differential calculi related to noncommutative gauge theories

Some derivation-based differential calculi which have been used to construct models of noncommutative gauge theories are presented and commented. Some comparisons between them are made.Comment: 22 pages, conference given at the "International Workshop in honour of Michel Dubois-Violette, Differential Geometry, Noncommutative Geometry, Homology and Fundamental Interactions". To appear in a special issue of International Journal of Geometric Methods in Modern Physic

On Curvature in Noncommutative Geometry

A general definition of a bimodule connection in noncommutative geometry has been recently proposed. For a given algebra this definition is compared with the ordinary definition of a connection on a left module over the associated enveloping algebra. The corresponding curvatures are also compared.Comment: 16 pages, PlainTe

Nonlinear Preconditioning: How to use a Nonlinear Schwarz Method to Precondition Newton's Method

For linear problems, domain decomposition methods can be used directly as iterative solvers, but also as preconditioners for Krylov methods. In practice, Krylov acceleration is almost always used, since the Krylov method finds a much better residual polynomial than the stationary iteration, and thus converges much faster. We show in this paper that also for non-linear problems, domain decomposition methods can either be used directly as iterative solvers, or one can use them as preconditioners for Newton's method. For the concrete case of the parallel Schwarz method, we show that we obtain a preconditioner we call RASPEN (Restricted Additive Schwarz Preconditioned Exact Newton) which is similar to ASPIN (Additive Schwarz Preconditioned Inexact Newton), but with all components directly defined by the iterative method. This has the advantage that RASPEN already converges when used as an iterative solver, in contrast to ASPIN, and we thus get a substantially better preconditioner for Newton's method. The iterative construction also allows us to naturally define a coarse correction using the multigrid full approximation scheme, which leads to a convergent two level non-linear iterative domain decomposition method and a two level RASPEN non-linear preconditioner. We illustrate our findings with numerical results on the Forchheimer equation and a non-linear diffusion problem

Toward the assessment of the susceptibility of a digital system to lightning upset

Accomplishments and directions for further research aimed at developing methods for assessing a candidate design of an avionic computer with respect to susceptability to lightning upset are reported. Emphasis is on fault tolerant computers. Both lightning stress and shielding are covered in a review of the electromagnetic environment. Stress characterization, system characterization, upset detection, and positive and negative design features are considered. A first cut theory of comparing candidate designs is presented including tests of comparative susceptability as well as its analysis and simulation. An approach to lightning induced transient fault effects is included

Influence de l'évolution dans l'espace et le temps d'un réseau de pluviomètres sur l'observation des surfaces de pluie en fonction de leur aire

La caractérisation précise de l'aléa climatique nécessite l'exploitation de mesures reposant sur la période d'observation la plus longue possible. Souvent cette information est constituée de mesures au sol à partir de postes pluviométriques. L'évolution dans l'espace et dans le temps des réseaux de pluviomètres introduit un biais dans toute étude stochastique spatiale ou ponctuelle reposant sur des séries de valeurs échantillonnées à partir d'un tel réseau. On se propose dans cet article de quantifier la potentialité d'un réseau de pluviomètres à intercepter des surfaces de pluie, en fonction de leur aire et des caractéristiques de ce réseau à une date donnée. On procède par simulation à partir du réseau de pluviomètres géré par Météo-France sur la région Languedoc-Roussillon, étudié sur une période de 123 ans. On définit la notion de pourcentage d'observation, qui représente la proportion de surface pluvieuse affectant la région et qui ont été interceptées par le réseau de mesure. Toutes études statistique reposant sur des séries de mesure échantillonnées à partir du réseau seront biaisées, étant donné qu'entre 1958 et 1993, on observe qu'une proportion des surfaces pluvieuses de moins de 2000 km2 qui ont touché la région étudiée. Ce pourcentage d'observation est ensuite utilisé pour débiaiser les estimations de l'aléa pluvieux régional reposant sur le réseau de pluviomètres.The most usual rainfall risk assessment, based on a stochastic approach, or an accurate quantiles estimation, requires long series of observations. Most of the time when long periods of observation are considered, the available information consists of data from daily rain gauge networks which are evolving in space and time during these periods. As the rainy surfaces which generate the highest intensities are localised in space, the intergauge distances may be too large to "observe" all the rainfall events occurring over a given network. Thus it could bias the stochastic results based on values sampled from such a network, especially when extreme rainfall events are considered. The aim of this paper is to estimate the capacity of a daily rain gauge network to intercept rainy surfaces according to their area and the network density. The results have been used to estimate the bias introduced in rainfall risk assessment using the regional frequencies of isohyets areas observed in the studied region.The network studied is the Languedoc-Roussillon daily rain gauge network, in a French region along the Mediterranean sea. The network has been developed by Météo-France since 1870. The number of gauges put into service has varied during the 1870-1993 period of observation: from 3 gauges in 1870, the maximum reached was 353 gauges in 1969 and 1972, which represented a spatial mean density of 12.6 gauges/ 1000 km2. Since 1972 the number of gauges has decreased; in 1993 the gauge density was the same as in 1963, with 10.6 gauges/ 1000 km2. Nevertheless the clustered gauges have been reduced, as have the maximum intergauge distances, and the network has become more homogeneous over the region.Using simulation, the percentage of rainy surfaces which have affected the region, and which have been observed by the rain gauge network, has been estimated, as a function of the rainy surfaces area and the rain gauge density. It could be interpreted as the empirical expression of the probability to observe a given rainy surface with a given network configuration. Two periods have been considered, 1870-1957 and 1958-1993. Two simulation methods have been used: in the first the rainy surfaces have been considered to be static and in the second their motion has been taken into account. It has appeared that considering the motion of rainy surfaces yields the same results as the static method but with a different rainy surface geometry. The small differences between the percentage of rainy surfaces observed by the network in both cases can be explained by the simulation methods. It has been shown that the average probability over the period from 1870 to 1957 of observing a given rainy surface is 2 to 4 times less than the average probability over the 1958-1993 observation period, during which the gauge density has increased and the network has become more homogeneous over the region: over the 1870-1957 period the rain gauge network intercepted 50% at least of the rainy surfaces equal to or larger than 700 km2 but in the 1958-1993 period 50% at least of the rainy surfaces were observed if their area exceeded 80 km2. If the rainfall event which affected the N"mes hydrological system on 2-3 October 1988 is considered, these results have shown that the average probability over the 1870-1957 observation period to observe such an event is 2 times less than over the 1958-1993 observation period.In a recent study, a rainfall risk assessment has been made over the Languedoc-Roussillon region, using the frequencies of the isohyets areas defined for different rain thresholds, for 24-hour and 48-hour durations. These isohyets areas have been estimated on the basis of a sample of 93 rainfall events selected over the Languedoc-Roussillon region from 1958 to 1993 (Neppel et al., 1998). A method to estimate the bias introduced by the network in the estimation of the isohyets area return periods has been carried out, using this empirical probability estimated with the static simulation method. It has been shown that the bias only affects the more frequent isohyets area quantiles, corresponding to return period of 1 year for 48-hour duration and 1 to 3 years for 24-hour duration. Moreover, for this sample and this network, it has been shown that the bias would be negligible compared to the quantiles 5% confidence limits, whatever the return period and the time step. It must be noted that with this sample the 5% confidence limits of the quantiles sometimes reach 100% of the quantiles. The results are related to the sample and the network configuration, and they should not be extended to other areas or other samples: a larger sample over the same region could lead to narrower confidence limits, in which case the bias might no longer be negligible. In particular, the use of historical data needs to consider the longest observation period. Usually the rain gauge density decreases over such observation periods, which leads to a lower empirical probability of observing rainy surfaces according to their area. Thus the bias influence may increase, especially compared with the quantiles 5% confidence limits which are reduced when the sample is enlarged. Nevertheless the method described here is general and may be transposed to other geographical zones, provided that the isohyets area frequencies and the empirical probability of observing a rainy surface according to its area, corresponding to the network under consideration, are known.The current tendency in France is to reduce the number of daily rain gauges, managed by volunteers, and to replace them by automatic rain gauges. However in such a case the density would decrease and reach that observed in 1900. When rainfall risk assessment is considered, this study has shown the drawbacks of such a policy

Caractérisation de l'aléa climatique pluvieux en région méditerranéenne : analyse statistique des surfaces pluvieuses

Ces 10 dernières années, certains épisodes pluvieux marquants ont entraîné une prise de conscience du risque encouru par les agglomérations modernes face à des phénomènes hydrologiques particuliers. La gestion du risque pluvial passe par une amélioration de la connaissance de l'aléa pluvieux. Dans cet article, on développe une approche stochastique exploitant le potentiel d'informations contenu dans un échantillon d'épisodes pluvieux extrêmes ayant ou ayant pu engendrer des crues dévastatrices. Une approche spatiale est utilisée pour caractériser l'aléa pluvieux. A partir d'un jeu d'épisodes extrêmes sélectionnés sur une région méditerranéenne entre 1958 et 1993, on estime l'aire des surfaces où les précipitations dépassent un seuil de pluviométrie fixé. L'estimation des aires des surfaces pluvieuses nécessite le recours à un modèle d'interpolation spatiale des hauteurs de pluie. La justification du krigeage climatologique est présentée ainsi que l'estimation des paramètres du modèle retenu. Les distributions des aires des isohyètes, à différents seuils de pluviométrie, sont ensuite analysées. Il apparaît que quelle que soit l'isohyète considérée, une loi gamma peut être ajustée sur l'échantillon de surface. Une relation entre les paramètres des lois permet une généralisation du modèle probabiliste à n'importe quel seuil de pluie compris entre 50 et 300 mm.In the last 10 years many cities in southern Europe have been affected by heavy rainfall events leading to severe runoffs. The assessment of rainfall risk requires a better knowledge of the climate hazards and particularly rainfall hazards. The most usual rainfall risk assessment is based on a stochastic approach and point rainfall frequency analysis remains the most-used method. However, in the Mediterranean region great variations of rainfall depth frequencies can be observed according to the point considered, and according to the period of observation. Moreover the recent hydrological catastrophes which have affected the south of France have been studied on an individual basis and studies based on a global approach, using the whole information contained in a sample of several observations, remain unusual.A rainfall risk assessment has been proposed in the Languedoc-Roussillon, a 28,000 km2 region along the Mediterranean sea. This study has been based on a sample of 93 daily extreme rainfall events, which have occurred in the region. They have been extracted from the Météo-France database for the 1958-1993 period of observation, if a rainfall depth greater or equal to 190 mm in 24 hours or 48 hours (because of the sampling constraints) has been observed at one rain gauge in the region at least. The spatial extension of the rainy surfaces defined at different rainfall thresholds, varying from 50 to 250 mm/24 hours and 50 to 300 mm/48 hours, have been investigated. For a given threshold, the area of the rainy surface corresponding to a given frequency has been estimated.The estimation of the rainy surfaces area has required the choice of a spatial interpolation method: the climatological kriging method has been used. This method is based on the assumption that all the rainfall events came from the same meteorological situation, but some studies have shown that there may be different meteorological situations (TOURASSE, 1981; RIVERAIN, 1997). Thus the sensitivity of the interpolation model according to this assumption has been tested. A different interpolation model has been estimated for each season because the information about the meteorological situations which have generated the selected events is not available. Only the variogram over June to August differs significantly from the "annual" variogram. The differences between the rainy surfaces area estimated with the "seasonal" variogram and the "annual" one did not exceed 10% in proportion of the areas estimated with the "annual" variogram. The rainy surface areas are less sensitive to the climatological assumption. For each time step and each rainfall threshold considered, it has been observed that the two parameter Gamma law could best fit the frequencies of the rainy surface areas. The relation between each of the Gamma law parameters and the rain threshold has been estimated (relations R1 and R2). The quantiles of the rainy surface areas have been estimated with two methods :- directly from the fitting of a Gamma function to the sample of rainy surface areas; - using the previous relation to estimate the Gamma function parameters. It has been observed that the quantiles estimated with the second method were close to those estimated with the first method, even if the fitting errors of the R1 and R2 relations were considered. Such a result allows one to estimate the regional frequency of a rainy surface areas defined at each threshold between 50 and 300 mm/48 hours or 50 and 250 mm/24 hours. However extrapolations beyond the studied threshold intervals should not be done because the R1 and R2 relations are empirical.The isohyets area quantiles have been defined: they represent the isohyet area corresponding to a given rainfall threshold and a given return period. The isohyet area quantiles may be very large; for example at the 200 mm / 48 hours threshold the isohyets area represents 15% of the region (4500 km2). This can be explained by the time step dt. The isohyets area represents the dynamics of the convective cells integrated over dt, which remains unknown but is greater than 48 hours. Moreover for a given rainfall threshold and a given event, several separate isohyets could be observed. However in this study only the all areas corresponding to the different isohyets have been estimated. Thus it could give a very large area when the event affects the all region.The ratio between the isohyet area quantiles at the 48-hour and 24-hour time steps evolved from 1.3 to 20: it increased with the rainfall threshold for a given return period. This can be explained by the strong dynamics of the convective cells which generate the highest rainfall depths, compared to the rain cells at a larger spatial scale, which generate lower rainfall depths. Thus the isohyet areas defined at a high rainfall threshold are sensitive to the time steps than isohyet areas defined at a smaller rainfall threshold.The frequencies estimated in this study have been regional frequencies, but it appears that the isohyet areas are not independent of the event's location. However, at this stage the sample is too small to allow a study of conditional frequencies. In order to perform this study the sample has already been enlarged by considering all the French Mediterranean region which have been affected by heavy rainfall depths. It has been based on all the information included in the Météo-France data base over this region (since 1870). The rainfall threshold used to select the rainfall events has been diminished to 90 mm/ 24 hours to include the high intensity events over short time steps which could generated severe floods, especially over small catchments.Combined with the information about the meteorological situations, the development of this work should allow improved studies of the relations between the rainy surfaces and the meteorological situations at the origin of the rainfall events

Amélioration des performances d'un modèle stochastique de génération de hyétogrammes horaires: application au pourtour méditerranéen français

Depuis quelques années, un modèle stochastique de génération de hyétogrammes horaires est développé au groupement d'Aix-en-Provence du Cemagref, pour être couplé à une modélisation de la pluie en débit, fournissant ainsi une multitude de scénarios de crues analysés statistiquement et utilisés en prédétermination des débits de crues. L'extension de la zone d'application du modèle de pluies horaires au-delà de sa zone de conception, a fait apparaître une hétérogénéité dans les résultats. Ce constat a entraîné certaines modifications du modèle comme : la recherche d'une loi de probabilité théorique peu sensible aux problèmes d'échantillonnage pour une variable du modèle (intensité d'une averse), la prise en compte originale de la dépendance observée entre deux variables du modèle (durée et intensité d'une averse), et la modélisation de la persistance des averses au sein d'une même période pluvieuse. Ces différentes modifications apportées au modèle initial ont entraîné une très nette amélioration de ses performances sur la cinquantaine de postes pluviographiques du pourtour méditerranéen français. On obtient ainsi un outil beaucoup plus robuste et validé sur une zone étendue, capable de fournir de multiples formes de hyétogrammes, couvrant toute la gamme des fréquences, permettant ainsi de s'affranchir des pluies de projet uniques. On aborde aussi une nouvelle approche du comportement à l'infini des distributions de fréquences des pluies qui semble parfois supérieur à une tendance strictement exponentielle. De plus, l'étude de plusieurs événements par an dont chacun présente plusieurs réalisations des différentes variables du modèle augmente la taille des échantillons analysés, semblant rendre la méthode plus rapidement fiable qu'une approche statistique classique basée par exemple sur l'ajustement de valeurs maximales annuelles.A stochastic model for generating hourly hyetographs has been recently developed, in the Cemagref of Aix-en-Provence, to be coupled with a rainfall runoff conversion modelling. Thus, by simulation of very long periods (1000 years for example), we obtain a large number of hourly hyetographs and flood scenarios that are statistically studied and used in flood predetermination problems. The rainfall model studied is based on the theory that rainfall can be linked to a random and intermittent process whose evolution is described by stochastic laws. It is also based on the hypothesis of independence between variables describing hyetographs and on the hypothesis of the stationary nature of the phenomenon studied. Generating a rainfall time series involves two steps : descriptive study of the phenomenon (nine independent variables are chosen to describe the phenomenon and these variables are defined by a theoretical law of probability fitted to the observations) and creation of a rainfall time series using descriptive variables generated randomly from their law of probability. Initially developed on the Réal Collobrier watershed data, the model has been applied to fifty raingauges located on the Mediterranean French seaboard. The extension of the model applying area has shown heterogeneousness in the results. Therefore, modifications have been made to the model to improve its performances. Among these modifications, three of them have presented notable improvements. A study of the sensitivity of the parameters has been made. Parameters of shape variables and of some other variables had only a slight influence on depth of generated rainfalls. But, the law of mean rainfall intensities clearly differentiates the stations. Then, a theoretical probability distribution for the storm intensity variable, less sensitive to the sampling problems, has been searched. An exponential distribution is fitted to the value smaller than four times the mean of the variable. A slope breakage was then introduced to generate all the values beyond this limit. The breakage at the value four times the mean of the variable and modelling this breakage were based on a study of so-called "regional" distributions of the storm intensity variable. These distributions were designed by clustering the variable's homogenized values for all 50 studied stations. A second modification has been made to develop new model for the observed dependence between two variables (duration and intensity of the storm). The study of this dependence has been considered directly based on the cumulative frequency of the two variables. Then, an additional parameter was defined to model the dependence between the probabilities of the two variables. This parameter characterises the cumulative frequency curve of the sum of the probabilities of the two variables. This point, neglected during a long time, has been very important in the improvement of the model. Finally, the modelling of storm persistence in a same rainfall episode has been studied to generate some high 24 hours maximum rainfalls. Persistence modelling is entirely justified by the fact that "ordinary storms" cluster together around the "main storm" (the "main storm" is the greatest storm of an episode and the "ordinary storms" are the other storms of the episode). When the study of this phenomenon is extended, it can be observed that there is a certain positive dependency between occurrence probability of the "main storm" and occurrence probability of storms which come before or after it. Two combined effects occur : within one rainy episode, the strongest "ordinary storms" are preferentially clustered together around the "main storm", and considering the number of "ordinary storms" throughout all the episodes, the strongest storms close to the "main storm" are preferentially associated with the strongest "main storms" and vice versa. This modification improves the performances of the altitude raingauges, which are characterised by high daily rainfall accumulations. The different modifications added to the initial model, give very important improvements on the calibration of the fifty raingauges studied on the French Mediterranean seaboard. Its aptitude to generate rains observed in Mediterranean climate, strongly variables, consolidates us in the idea of its application on a zone much larger. The generation of hyetographs makes it possible to use the maximum the temporal information of the rain. Thus, we obtain a reliable tool, validated on a large area, for simulating hyetographs and hourly flood scenarios at all frequencies, and used instead of a unique design storm and design flood. The approach allows a new cumulative probability curve extrapolation, which seems sometimes greater than an exponential behaviour. Moreover, the study of many events per year, with many occurrences of the different variables of the model, increase the analysed sample size and seems to make the method more reliable than a statistical approach simply based, for example, on the fitting of annual maximum values

Belief Hierarchical Clustering

In the data mining field many clustering methods have been proposed, yet standard versions do not take into account uncertain databases. This paper deals with a new approach to cluster uncertain data by using a hierarchical clustering defined within the belief function framework. The main objective of the belief hierarchical clustering is to allow an object to belong to one or several clusters. To each belonging, a degree of belief is associated, and clusters are combined based on the pignistic properties. Experiments with real uncertain data show that our proposed method can be considered as a propitious tool