Market Size, Investment Performance, and Expected New Supply of Defaulted Bonds & Bank Loans: 1987-1999

This report presents results and discussion of the investment performance of those bonds and bank loans that have defaulted on their scheduled payments to creditors and continue trading while the issuing firm attempts a financial reorganization. Monthly total return measures are compiled based on the Altman-NYU Salomon Center Indexes of Defaulted Bonds and Defaulted Banks Loans, as well as an index that combines bonds and loans. These returns are compared to the total returns of common stocks and high yield corporate bonds. Returns are based on our market-weighted indexes and presented for the past year (1999), as well as for the last 13 years (for bonds) and four years for bank loans. We also estimate the expected supply of new defaulted debt in the United States for the coming three years. Nineteen ninety-nine was a mixed year for investors in distressed debt securities. Although the Defaulted Public Bond Index increased by a respectable 11.34% in 1999, the positive rate of increase was mainly a function of the excellent performance over a threemonth period in the earlier part of the year (February, March and April) when the size of the index was comprised of a relatively small number of securities and when the movement of a few issues had a significant influence on the Index. Still, the positive annual performance reversed the negative annual returns that we had observed in the prior two years. On a comparative note, our Defaulted Public Bond Index’s return of 11.34% was slightly higher than Salomon Smith Barney’s Bankrupt Bond Index return of 8.42%. Defaulted bank loans did not fare as well, recording a slight increase for the year of 0.65%. Except for the initial year (1996) of our Bank Loan Index, performance has been lackluster in the past three years. Finally, the Combined Public Bond and Private Bank Loan Index recorded a positive annual return in 1999 of 4.45%, resulting in a basically flat performance over the four years of the combined index calculation period. Comparative returns for the thirteen-year period (1987-1999), show that common stocks strengthened its number one asset class return/risk position. High yield bonds, while performing relatively poorly in 1999 (+1.7%), maintained a slight average annual return advantage over defaulted bonds. The two “bright” or positive factors related to the defaulted bond and bank loan markets in 1999 were the enormous increase in the supply of new defaulted issues and the record low average market value to face value ratio of the Index at the end of the year. The size of the Index more than doubled in number of issues and tripled in face and market values over the past twelve months as the default amount of high yield bonds reached a record high level in 1999 and the default rate went from 1.6% to over 4.0% (see our companion report on Defaults and Returns in the High Yield Bond Market). Based on our forecast of future defaults, we expect the number and amounts of the issues in both the Bond and Bank Loan indexes to continue to grow, albeit at a lower rate, in the next three years. Going forward, we suggest that this increased supply, and the relatively low marketto-face value ratio of defaulted bonds at the end of 1999, may present significant investment opportunities

Modelling challenges of stationary combustion in inert porous media

Thanks to strong heat recirculation, submerged combustion within porous media presents unique technological features such as broadened flammability limits and extended power range. The associated possibility to burn ultra-lean mixtures with minimal CO/NOx emissions makes porous media combustion a potential alternative in the industry, for instance in domestic heat generation or clean aviation where low pollutant emissions and robust operability are of paramount importance. However, even though this combustion mode has been studied for decades, there remains many open questions regarding the intertwined flame structure and the validity of associated low-order modelling. To date, volume-averaged models are mostly based upon ad hoc hypotheses and still present large discrepancies with experiments. Aiming to chal- lenge and strengthen these models, the present work presents analytical and numerical studies of the volume-averaged equations, followed by 3D direct pore-level simulations of methane-air and hydrogen-air combustion. Chapters 1 and 2 provide a critical review of concepts associated to flows and flames within porous media, with a focus on non-adiabatic combustion and macroscopic effective characteriza- tion. A classification of gaseous flames in terms of the thermal Péclet number is proposed, and the upscaling procedure on the pointwise equations is presented. Chapter 3 presents asymptotic results based on the volume-averaged equations, and the proposed theoretical framework un- veils the first fully-explicit formulae for flame speed in infinite and finite-length porous burners. Multi-layered burners are also considered theoretically for the first time, and the important con- cept of contact resistance between two stacked porous plates is underlined. Chapter 4 proposes a general classification of porous media combustion in three distinct regimes for increasing inter- phase heat transfer, only based on two reduced parameters, in order to reconcile the literature frameworks of local thermal equilibrium (LTE) and non-equilibrium (LTNE). Chapter 5, 6 and 7 present 3D pore-level direct numerical simulations of flames within porous media using complex kinetics, for various structural topologies and pore sizes. As a major technical hurdle encountered during the thesis, the meshing workflow from X-ray tomography to conformal computational mesh is given for practical use in the community. These DNS unveil the internal flame structure of methane-air and hydrogen-air flames within typical porous burners, and it is shown that when the pore size is larger than the flame thickness, sharp and locally- anchored flame fronts are observed. These local discontinuities related to the strongly non-linear reaction rates are shown to be in direct violation of the classical volume-averaged hypotheses. This demonstrates that new volume-averaged models are required, and accordingly a closure for reaction rates based upon phenomenology and observations in the 3D DNS is proposed. Eventually, the pore-level specificities of hydrogen combustion at pore scale are described

Market Size, Investment Performance, and Expected New Supply of Defaulted Bonds & Bank Loans: 1987-1999

This report presents results and discussion of the investment performance of those bonds and bank loans that have defaulted on their scheduled payments to creditors and continue trading while the issuing firm attempts a financial reorganization. Monthly total return measures are compiled based on the Altman-NYU Salomon Center Indexes of Defaulted Bonds and Defaulted Banks Loans, as well as an index that combines bonds and loans. These returns are compared to the total returns of common stocks and high yield corporate bonds. Returns are based on our market-weighted indexes and presented for the past year (1999), as well as for the last 13 years (for bonds) and four years for bank loans. We also estimate the expected supply of new defaulted debt in the United States for the coming three years. Nineteen ninety-nine was a mixed year for investors in distressed debt securities. Although the Defaulted Public Bond Index increased by a respectable 11.34% in 1999, the positive rate of increase was mainly a function of the excellent performance over a threemonth period in the earlier part of the year (February, March and April) when the size of the index was comprised of a relatively small number of securities and when the movement of a few issues had a significant influence on the Index. Still, the positive annual performance reversed the negative annual returns that we had observed in the prior two years. On a comparative note, our Defaulted Public Bond Index’s return of 11.34% was slightly higher than Salomon Smith Barney’s Bankrupt Bond Index return of 8.42%. Defaulted bank loans did not fare as well, recording a slight increase for the year of 0.65%. Except for the initial year (1996) of our Bank Loan Index, performance has been lackluster in the past three years. Finally, the Combined Public Bond and Private Bank Loan Index recorded a positive annual return in 1999 of 4.45%, resulting in a basically flat performance over the four years of the combined index calculation period. Comparative returns for the thirteen-year period (1987-1999), show that common stocks strengthened its number one asset class return/risk position. High yield bonds, while performing relatively poorly in 1999 (+1.7%), maintained a slight average annual return advantage over defaulted bonds. The two “bright” or positive factors related to the defaulted bond and bank loan markets in 1999 were the enormous increase in the supply of new defaulted issues and the record low average market value to face value ratio of the Index at the end of the year. The size of the Index more than doubled in number of issues and tripled in face and market values over the past twelve months as the default amount of high yield bonds reached a record high level in 1999 and the default rate went from 1.6% to over 4.0% (see our companion report on Defaults and Returns in the High Yield Bond Market). Based on our forecast of future defaults, we expect the number and amounts of the issues in both the Bond and Bank Loan indexes to continue to grow, albeit at a lower rate, in the next three years. Going forward, we suggest that this increased supply, and the relatively low marketto-face value ratio of defaulted bonds at the end of 1999, may present significant investment opportunities

Fully explicit formulae for flame speed in infinite and finite porous media

This work proposes new analytical expressions for gaseous flames in inert porous media, based on the existing modelling strategies. The central hypothesis is that interphase heat transfer has negligible impact on the local flame structure. This requires a gradual separation between the length scales of chemical reactions, gas diffusion, and interphase thermal re-equilibriation. By resolving the gas and solid equations without reaction on each side of the reaction sheet, the preheating of the fresh gases ahead of the flame front is analytically computed at leading order. Combustion kinetics are solved separately, assuming the consumption rate to be a sole function of this preheating. Two kinetic models are considered, namely, single-step Arrhenius and power law fits from experiments or detailed computations. Several fully explicit formulae for flame speed in porous media are given accordingly. A universal abacus provides the maximum flame speed attainable in finite porous media. The explicit, ready-to-use nature of the present theory is particularly suitable for practical designs. This work is consistent with previous theoretical, numerical and experimental trends of the literature

Conclusions of the French Food Safety Agency on the toxicity of bisphenol A

Since more than 10 years, risk assessment of bisphenol A (BPA) is debated at the international level. In 2008, the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) expressed some concern for adverse effects, at current level of exposure to BPA, on developmental toxicity. In this context, the French Food Safety Agency (AFSSA) decided to review the toxicity data on BPA with a special focus on this endpoint at doses below 5mg/kg bw/day (the no observed adverse effect level set by different regulatory bodies). This paper summarizes the conclusions of a collective assessment conducted by an expert Working Group from AFSSA. Studies were classified into 3 groups: (i) finding no toxicity, (ii) reporting results not considered to be of concern and (iii) indicating warning signals. The term "warning signal" means that no formal conclusion can be drawn regarding the establishment of a health based guidance value but the study raises some questions about the toxicity of BPA at low doses. It was concluded that studies are needed to ascertain the significance for human health of these warning signals and to be able to propose new methodologies for assessing the risks associated with low doses of BPA and more generally of endocrine disruptors

The impact of food assistance on food insecure populations during conflict: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Mali

Mali, a vast landlocked country at the heart of West Africa in the Sahel region, is one of the least developed and most food insecure countries in the world. Mali suffered from a series of political, constitutional and military crises since January 2012, including the loss of government control of northern territories from April 2012 until January 2013. A range of humanitarian aid interventions were scaled up in response to these complex crises. In this study, we exploit data from a unique pre-crisis baseline to evaluate the impact of humanitarian aid on the food security of rural populations. We design a quasi-experimental study based on two survey rounds, five years apart, in the Mopti region in Northern Mali. Data was collected from 66 communities randomly selected from within food-insecure districts. Study outcomes include household expenditures and food consumption and a proxy for child nutritional status (height measurements). We estimate program impact by combining propensity score matching and difference-in-difference. Food assistance was found to increase household non-food and food expenditures and micro-nutrient availability. Disaggregating by degree of conflict exposure showed that the effects on children's height and caloric and micro-nutrient consumption were mostly concentrated in areas not in the immediate vicinity of the conflict, unlike the increase in food expenditures that were driven by households located in close proximity to armed groups. The effects were also concentrated on households receiving at least two forms of food assistance. In villages where armed groups were present, food assistance improved household zinc consumption and also appeared to support food expenditures. Food transfers are thus found to exert a protective effect among food insecure population in conflict context

Gas dynamics in tidal dwarf galaxies : disc formation at z=0

Tidal dwarf galaxies (TDGs) are recycled objects that form within the collisional debris of interacting/merging galaxies. They are expected to be devoid of non-baryonic dark matter, since they can form only from dissipative material ejected from the discs of the progenitor galaxies. We investigate the gas dynamics in a sample of six bona-fide TDGs around three interacting and post-interacting systems: NGC 4694, NGC 5291, and NGC 7252 ("Atoms for Peace"). For NGC 4694 and NGC 5291 we analyse existing HI data from the Very Large Array (VLA), while for NGC 7252 we present new HI observations from the Jansky VLA together with long-slit and integral-field optical spectroscopy. For all six TDGs, the HI emission can be described by rotating disc models. These HI discs, however, have undergone less than a full rotation since the time of the interaction/merger event, raising the question of whether they are in dynamical equilibrium. Assuming that these discs are in equilibrium, the inferred dynamical masses are consistent with the observed baryonic masses, implying that TDGs are devoid of dark matter. This puts constraints on putative "dark discs" (either baryonic or non-baryonic) in the progenitor galaxies. Moreover, TDGs seem to systematically deviate from the baryonic Tully-Fisher relation. These results provide a challenging test for alternative theories like MOND.Peer reviewe