A four year longitudinal sero-epidemiological study of bovine herpesvirus type-1 (BHV-1) in adult cattle in 107 unvaccinated herds in south west England

Background: Bovine herpesvirus type-1 (BHV-1) is an important pathogen of cattle that presents with a variety of clinical signs, including the upper respiratory tract infection infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR). A seroepidemiological study of BHV-1 antibodies was conducted in England from 2002 – 2004: 29,782 blood samples were taken from 15,736 cattle from 114 herds which were visited on up to three occasions. Antibody concentration was measured using a commercial ELISA. Farm management information was collected using an interview questionnaire, and herd size and cattle movements were obtained from the cattle tuberculosis testing database and the British Cattle Movement Service. Hierarchical statistical models were used to investigate associations between cattle and herd variables and the continuous outcome percentage positive (PP) values from the ELISA test in unvaccinated herds. Results: There were 7 vaccinated herds, all with at least one seropositive bovine. In unvaccinated herds 83.2% had at least one BHV-1 seropositive bovine, and the mean cattle and herd BHV-1 seroprevalence were 42.5% and 43.1% respectively. There were positive associations between PP value, age, herd size, presence of dairy cattle. Adult cattle in herds with grower cattle had lower PP values than those in herds without grower cattle. Purchased cattle had significantly lower PP values than homebred cattle, whereas cattle in herds that were totally restocked after the foot-and-mouth epidemic in 2001 had significantly higher PP values than those in continuously stocked herds. Samples taken in spring and summer had significantly lower PP values than those taken in winter, whereas those taken in autumn had significantly higher PP values than those taken in winter. The risks estimated from a logistic regression model with a binary outcome (seropositive yes/no) were similar. Conclusion: The prevalence of BHV-1 seropositivity in cattle and herds has increased since the 1970s. Although the study population prevalence of BHV-1 was temporally stable during study period, the associations between serological status and cattle age, herd size, herd type, presence of young stock and restocked versus continuously stocked herds indicate that there is heterogeneity between herds and so potential for further spread of BHV-1 within and between herds

A four year longitudinal sero-epidemiology study of Neospora caninum in adult cattle from 114 cattle herds in south west England : associations with age, herd and dam-offspring pairs

Background: Neosporosis caused by the protozoan parasite Neospora caninum, is an economically important cause of abortion, stillbirth, low milk yield, reduced weight gain and premature culling in cattle. Consequently, a seroepidemiological study of N. caninum antibodies was conducted in England with 29,782 samples of blood taken from 15,736 cattle from 114 herds visited on three occasions at yearly intervals. Herds were categorised into lower (< 10%) and higher (≥ 10%) median herd seroprevalence. Hierarchical models were run to investigate associations between the sample to positive (S/P) ratio and herd and cattle factors. Results: Ninety-four percent of herds had at least one seropositive cow; 12.9% of adult cattle had at least one seropositive test. Approximately 90% of herds were seropositive at all visits; 9 herds (8%) changed serological status between visits. The median N. caninum seroprevalence in positive herds was 10% (range 0.4% to 58.8%). There was a positive association between the serostatus of offspring and dams that were ever seropositive. In the hierarchical model of low seroprevalence herds there was no significant association between S/P ratio and cattle age. There was a significantly lower S/P ratio in cattle in herds that were totally restocked after the foot-and-mouth epidemic of 2001 compared with those from continuously stocked herds and cattle purchased into these herds had a higher S/P ratio than homebred cattle. In the model of high seroprevalence herds the S/P ratio increased with cattle age, but was not associated with restocking or cattle origin. Conclusion: There were no strong temporal changes in herd seroprevalence of N. caninum but 90% of herds had some seropositive cattle over this time period. Vertical transmission from seropositive dams appeared to occur in all herds. In herds with a high seroprevalence the increasing S/P ratio in 2–4 year old cattle is suggestive of exposure to N. caninum: horizontal transmission between adult cattle, infection from a local source or recrudescence and abortions. Between-herd movements of infected cattle enhance the spread of N. caninum, particularly into low seroprevalence herds. Some restocked herds had little exposure to N. caninum, while in others infection had spread in the time since restocking

AIRBED: a simplified density functional theory model for physisorption on surfaces

Dispersion interactions are commonly included in density functional theory (DFT) calculations through the addition of an empirical correction. In this study, a modification is made to the damping function in DFT-D2 calculations, to describe repulsion at small internuclear distances. The resulting Atomic Interactions Represented By Empirical Dispersion (AIRBED) approach is used to model the physisorption of molecules on surfaces such as graphene and hexagonal boron nitride, where the constituent atoms of the surface are no longer required to be included explicitly in the density functional theory calculation but are represented by a point charge to capture electrostatic effects. It is shown that this model can reproduce the structures predicted by full DFT-D2 calculations to a high degree of accuracy. The significant reduction in computational cost allows much larger systems to be studied, including molecular arrays on surfaces and sandwich complexes involving organic molecules between two surface layers

Understanding Coronal Heating with Emission Measure Distributions

It is widely believed that the cross-field spatial scale of coronal heating is small, so that the fundamental plasma structures (loop strands) are spatially unresolved. We therefore must appeal to diagnostic techniques that are not strongly affected by spatial averaging. One valuable observable is the emission measure distribution, EM(T), which indicates how much material is present at each temperature. Using data from the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph on the Hinode mission, we have determined emission measure distributions in the cores of two active regions. The distributions have power law slopes of approximately 2.4 coolward of the peak. We compare these slopes, as well as the amount of emission measure at very high temperature, with the predictions of a series of models. The models assume impulsive heating (nanoflares) in unresolved strands and take full account of non equilibrium ionization. A variety of nanoflare properties and initial conditions are considered. We also comment on the selection of spectral lines for upcoming missions like Solar Orbiter

Current Approaches to Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions

This review paper presents an assessment of the current state of knowledge and capability in seasonal climate prediction at the end of the 20th century. The discussion covers the full range of issues involved in climate forecasting, including (1) the theory and empirical evidence for predictability; (2) predictions of surface boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that drive the predictable part of the climate; (3) predictions of the climate; and (4) a brief consideration of the application of climate forecasts. Within this context, the research of the coming decades that seeks to address shortcomings in each area is described

Unveiling the nature of INTEGRAL objects through optical spectroscopy. VII. Identification of 20 Galactic and extragalactic hard X-ray sources

Within the framework of our program of assessment of the nature of unidentified or poorly known INTEGRAL sources, we present here spectroscopy of optical objects, selected through positional cross-correlation with soft X-ray detections (afforded with satellites such as Swift, ROSAT, Chandra and/or XMM-Newton) as putative counterparts of hard X-ray sources detected with the IBIS instrument onboard INTEGRAL. Using 6 telescopes of various sizes and archival data from two on-line spectroscopic surveys we are able to identify, either for the first time or independent of other groups, the nature of 20 INTEGRAL hard X-ray sources. Our results indicate that: 11 of these objects are active galactic nuclei (AGNs) at redshifts between 0.014 and 0.978, 7 of which display broad emission lines, 2 show narrow emission lines only, and 2 have unremarkable or no emission lines (thus are likely Compton thick AGNs); 5 are cataclysmic variables (CVs), 4 of which are (possibly magnetic) dwarf novae and one is a symbiotic star; and 4 are Galactic X-ray binaries (3 with high-mass companions and one with a low-mass secondary). It is thus again found that the majority of these sources are AGNs or magnetic CVs, confirming our previous findings. When possible, the main physical parameters for these hard X-ray sources are also computed using the multiwavelength information available in the literature. These identifications support the importance of INTEGRAL in the study of the hard X-ray spectrum of all classes of X-ray emitting objects, and the effectiveness of a strategy of multi-catalogue cross-correlation plus optical spectroscopy to securely pinpoint the actual nature of unidentified hard X-ray sources.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication on Astronomy & Astrophysics, main journal. Slight changes made to match the proof-corrected version; references adde

Current approaches to season-to-interannual climate prediction

This review paper presents an assessment of the current state of knowledge and capability in seasonal climate prediction at the end of the 20th century. The discussion covers the full range of issues involved in climate forecasting, including (1) the theory and empirical evidence for predictability; (2) predictions of surface boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that drive the predictable part of the climate; (3) predictions of the climate; and (4) a brief consideration of the application of climate forecasts. Within this context, the research of the coming decades that seeks to address shortcomings in each area is described

Damage Tolerance Analysis of a Pressurized Liquid Oxygen Tank

A damage tolerance assessment was conducted of an 8,000 gallon pressurized Liquid Oxygen (LOX) tank. The LOX tank is constructed of a stainless steel pressure vessel enclosed by a thermal-insulating vacuum jacket. The vessel is pressurized to 2,250 psi with gaseous nitrogen resulting in both thermal and pressure stresses on the tank wall. Finite element analyses were performed on the tank to characterize the stresses from operation. Engineering material data was found from both the construction of the tank and the technical literature. An initial damage state was assumed based on records of a nondestructive inspection performed on the tank. The damage tolerance analyses were conducted using the NASGRO computer code. This paper contains the assumptions, and justifications, made for the input parameters to the damage tolerance analyses and the results of the damage tolerance analyses with a discussion on the operational safety of the LOX tank