Development and Reporting of Prediction Models: Guidance for Authors From Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals

Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of “modifiable risk factors”, measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details

The quest for universal access to effective malaria treatment: how can the AMFm contribute?

Access to quality assured artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has remained very low in most malaria endemic countries. A number of reasons, including unaffordable prices, have contributed to the low accessibility to these life-saving medicines. The Affordable Medicines Facility-Malaria (AMFm) is a mechanism to increase access to quality assured ACT. The AMFm will use price signals and a combination of public and private sector channels to achieve multiple public health objectives: replacing older and increasingly ineffective anti-malarial medicines, such as chloroquine and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine with ACT, displacing oral artemisinin monotherapies from the market, and prolonging the lifespan of ACT by reducing the likelihood of resistance to artemisinin

Protecting Vulnerable Road Users from Injury

Aymery Constant and Emmanuel Lagarde discuss policies to protect pedestrians, and pedal and motor cyclists, from injury

Knowledge, Perceptions and Information about Hormone Therapy (HT) among Menopausal Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Synthesis

BACKGROUND: The use of hormone therapy (HT) by menopausal women has declined since the Women's Health Initiative randomized trial (WHI) in 2002 demonstrated important harms associated with long-term use. However, how this information has influenced women's knowledge and attitudes is uncertain. We aimed to evaluate the attitudes and perceptions towards HT use, as well as specific concerns and information sources on HT since the WHI trial. METHOD/RESULTS: We did a systematic review to assess the attitudes and knowledge towards HT in women, and estimate the magnitude of the issue by pooling across the studies. Using meta-synthesis methods, we reviewed qualitative studies and surveys and performed content analysis on the study reports. We pooled quantitative studies using a random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 11 qualitative studies (n = 566) and 27 quantitative studies (n = 39251). Positive views on HT included climacteric symptom control, prevention of osteoporosis and a perceived improvement in quality of life. Negative factors reported included concerns about potential harmful effects, particularly cancer risks. Sources of information included health providers, media, and social contact. By applying a meta-synthesis approach we demonstrate that these findings are broadly applicable across large groups of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Although there are clear hazards associated with long-term HT use, many women view HT favorably for climacteric symptom relief. Media, as a source of information, is often valued as equivalent to health providers

GWAS and meta-analysis identifies 49 genetic variants underlying critical COVID-19

Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations2. Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group3. Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling (JAK1), monocyte-macrophage activation and endothelial permeability (PDE4A), immunometabolism (SLC2A5 and AK5), and host factors required for viral entry and replication (TMPRSS2 and RAB2A)

Social and Cultural Factors Affecting Uptake of Interventions for Malaria in Pregnancy in Africa: A Systematic Review of the Qualitative Research

Malaria during pregnancy (MiP) results in adverse birth outcomes and poor maternal health. MiP-related morbidity and mortality is most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa, where recommended MiP interventions include intermittent preventive treatment, insecticide-treated bednets and appropriate case management. Besides their clinical efficacy, the effectiveness of these interventions depends on the attitudes and behaviours of pregnant women and the wider community, which are shaped by social and cultural factors. Although these factors have been studied largely using quantitative methods, qualitative research also offers important insights. This article provides a comprehensive overview of qualitative research on social and cultural factors relevant to uptake of MiP interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.A systematic search strategy was employed: literature searches were undertaken in several databases (OVID SP, IS Web of Knowledge, MiP Consortium library). MiP-related original research, on social/cultural factors relevant to MiP interventions, in Africa, with findings derived from qualitative methods was included. Non-English language articles were excluded. A meta-ethnographic approach was taken to analysing and synthesizing findings. Thirty-seven studies were identified. Fourteen concentrated on MiP. Others focused on malaria treatment and prevention, antenatal care (ANC), anaemia during pregnancy or reproductive loss. Themes identified included concepts of malaria and risk in pregnancy, attitudes towards interventions, structural factors affecting delivery and uptake, and perceptions of ANC.Although malaria risk is associated with pregnancy, women's vulnerability is often considered less disease-specific and MiP interpreted in locally defined categories. Furthermore, local discourses and health workers' ideas and comments influence concerns about MiP interventions. Understandings of ANC, health worker-client interactions, household decision-making, gender relations, cost and distance to health facilities affect pregnant women's access to MiP interventions and lack of healthcare infrastructure limits provision of interventions. Further qualitative research is however required: many studies were principally descriptive and an in-depth comparative approach is recommended

Barriers to the effective treatment and prevention of malaria in Africa: A systematic review of qualitative studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Africa, an estimated 300-500 million cases of malaria occur each year resulting in approximately 1 million deaths. More than 90% of these are in children under 5 years of age. To identify commonly held beliefs about malaria that might present barriers to its successful treatment and prevention, we conducted a systematic review of qualitative studies examining beliefs and practices concerning malaria in sub-Saharan African countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched Medline and Scopus (1966-2009) and identified 39 studies that employed qualitative methods (focus groups and interviews) to examine the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of people living in African countries where malaria is endemic. Data were extracted relating to study characteristics, and themes pertaining to barriers to malaria treatment and prevention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority of studies were conducted in rural areas, and focused mostly or entirely on children. Major barriers to prevention reported included a lack of understanding of the cause and transmission of malaria (29/39), the belief that malaria cannot be prevented (7/39), and the use of ineffective prevention measures (12/39). Thirty-seven of 39 articles identified barriers to malaria treatment, including concerns about the safety and efficacy of conventional medicines (15/39), logistical obstacles, and reliance on traditional remedies. Specific barriers to the treatment of childhood malaria identified included the belief that a child with convulsions could die if given an injection or taken to hospital (10/39).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that large-scale malaria prevention and treatment programs must account for the social and cultural contexts in which they are deployed. Further quantitative research should be undertaken to more precisely measure the impact of the themes uncovered by this exploratory analysis.</p

Pre-referral rectal artesunate in severe malaria: flawed trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Immediate injectable treatment is essential for severe malaria. Otherwise, the afflicted risk lifelong impairment or death. In rural areas of Africa and Asia, appropriate care is often miles away. In 2009, Melba Gomes and her colleagues published the findings of a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of rectal artesunate for suspected severe malaria in such remote areas. Enrolling nearly 18,000 cases, the aim was to evaluate whether, as patients were in transit to a health facility, a pre-referral artesunate suppository blocked disease progression sufficiently to reduce these risks. The affirmative findings of this, the only trial on the issue thus far, have led the WHO to endorse rectal artesunate as a pre-referral treatment for severe malaria. In the light of its public health importance and because its scientific quality has not been assessed for a systematic review, our paper provides a detailed evaluation of the design, conduct, analysis, reporting, and practical features of this trial.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We performed a checklist-based and an in-depth evaluation of the trial. The evaluation criteria were based on the CONSORT statement for reporting clinical trials, the clinical trial methodology literature, and practice in malaria research. Our main findings are: The inclusion and exclusion criteria and the sample size justification are not stated. Many clearly ineligible subjects were enrolled. The training of the recruiters does not appear to have been satisfactory. There was excessive between center heterogeneity in design and conduct. Outcome evaluation schedule was not defined, and in practice, became too wide. Large gaps in the collection of key data were evident. Primary endpoints were inconsistently utilized and reported; an overall analysis of the outcomes was not done; analyses of time to event data had major flaws; the stated intent-to-treat analysis excluded a third of the randomized subjects; the design-indicated stratified or multi-variate analysis was not done; many improper subgroups were analyzed in a post-hoc fashion; the analysis and reporting metric was deficient. There are concerns relating to patient welfare at some centers. Exclusion of many cases from data analysis compromised external validity. A bias-controlled reanalysis of available data does not lend support to the conclusions drawn by the authors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This trial has numerous serious deficiencies in design, implementation, and methods of data analysis. Interpretation and manner of reporting are wanting, and the applicability of the findings is unclear. The trial conduct could have been improved to better protect patient welfare. The totality of these problems make it a flawed study whose conclusions remain subject to appreciable doubt.</p

GWAS and Meta-Analysis Identifies 49 Genetic Variants Underlying Critical COVID-19

Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations2. Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group3. Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling (JAK1), monocyte-macrophage activation and endothelial permeability (PDE4A), immunometabolism (SLC2A5 and AK5), and host factors required for viral entry and replication (TMPRSS2 and RAB2A)

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical Covid-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalisation2-4 following SARS-CoV-2 infection. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from critically-ill cases with population controls in order to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here, we use whole genome sequencing in 7,491 critically-ill cases compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical Covid-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB, PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A), and blood type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalisation to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence implicating multiple genes, including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased mucin expression (MUC1), in critical disease. Mendelian randomisation provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5, CD209) and coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of Covid-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication, or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between critically-ill cases and population controls is highly efficient for detection of therapeutically-relevant mechanisms of disease