Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001–12: a retrospective observational study

Background Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. Methods Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi’s Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children’s clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2–11 months of age, and 12–59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed eff ects logistic regression models. Findings Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92∧7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6·6% (95% CI 6·4–6·7). The case fatality rate signifi cantly decreased between 2001 (15·2% [13·4–17·1]) and 2012 (4·5% [4·1–4·9]; ptrend<0·0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors signifi cantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2–11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11·8%), severe undernutrition (15·4%), severe acute malnutrition (34·8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9·0%). Interpretation Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specifi c subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of suffi cient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of eff ective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi

Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001-12: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. METHODS: Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi's Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children's clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2-11 months of age, and 12-59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92·7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6·6% (95% CI 6·4-6·7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15·2% [13·4-17·1]) and 2012 (4·5% [4·1-4·9]; ptrend<0·0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2-11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11·8%), severe undernutrition (15·4%), severe acute malnutrition (34·8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9·0%). INTERPRETATION: Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Opportunities to improve postpartum care for mothers and infants: design of context-specific packages of postpartum interventions in rural districts in four sub-Saharan African countries

Background: Postpartum maternal and infant mortality is high in sub-Saharan Africa and improving postpartum care as a strategy to enhance maternal and infant health has been neglected. We describe the design and selection of suitable, context-specific interventions that have the potential to improve postpartum care. Methods: The study is implemented in rural districts in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Malawi and Mozambique. We used the four steps ‘systems thinking’ approach to design and select interventions: 1) we conducted a stakeholder analysis to identify and convene stakeholders; 2) we organised stakeholders causal analysis workshops in which the local postpartum situation and challenges and possible interventions were discussed; 3) based on comprehensive needs assessment findings, inputs from the stakeholders and existing knowledge regarding good postpartum care, a list of potential interventions was designed, and; 4) the stakeholders selected and agreed upon final context-specific intervention packages to be implemented to improve postpartum care. Results: Needs assessment findings showed that in all study countries maternal, newborn and child health is a national priority but specific policies for postpartum care are weak and there is very little evidence of effective postpartum care implementation. In the study districts few women received postpartum care during the first week after childbirth (25 % in Burkina Faso, 33 % in Kenya, 41 % in Malawi, 40 % in Mozambique). Based on these findings the interventions selected by stakeholders mainly focused on increasing the availability and provision of postpartum services and improving the quality of postpartum care through strengthening postpartum services and care at facility and community level. This includes the introduction of postpartum home visits, strengthening postpartum outreach services, integration of postpartum services for the mother in child immunisation clinics, distribution of postpartum care guidelines among health workers and upgrading postpartum care knowledge and skills through training. Conclusion: There are extensive gaps in availability and provision of postpartum care for mothers and infants. Acknowledging these gaps and involving relevant stakeholders are important to design and select sustainable, context-specific packages of interventions to improve postpartum care

An assessment of PCV13 vaccine coverage using a repeated cross-sectional household survey in Malawi [version 1; referees: 3 approved]

Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was introduced in Malawi from November 2011 using a three dose primary series at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age to reduce Streptococcus pneumoniae-related diseases. To date, PCV13 paediatric coverage in Malawi has not been rigorously assessed.  We used household surveys to longitudinally track paediatric PCV13 coverage in rural Malawi. Methods: Samples of 60 randomly selected children (30 infants aged 6 weeks to 4 months and 30 aged 4-16 months) were sought in each of 20 village clinic catchment ‘basins’ of Kabudula health area, Lilongwe, Malawi between March 2012 and June 2014. Child health information was reviewed and mothers interviewed to determine each child’s PCV13 dose status and vaccine timing. The survey was completed six times in 4-8 month intervals. Survey inference was used to assess PCV13 dose coverage in each basin for each age group. All 20 basins were pooled to assess area-wide vaccination coverage over time, by age in months, and adherence to the vaccination schedule. Results: We surveyed a total of 8,562 children in six surveys; 82% were in the older age group. Overall, in age-eligible children, two-dose and three-dose coverage increased from 30% to 85% and 10% to 86%, respectively, between March 2012 and June 2014.  PCV13 coverage was higher in the older age group in all surveys. Although it varied by basin, PCV13 coverage was consistently delayed: median ages at first, second and third doses were 9, 15 and 21 weeks, respectively. Conclusion: In our rural study area, PCV13 introduction did not meet the Malawi Ministry of Health one-year three-dose 90% coverage target, but after 2 years reached levels likely to reduce the prevalence of both invasive and non-invasive paediatric pneumococcal diseases. Better adherence to the PCV13 schedule may reduce pneumococcal disease in younger Malawian children

Measurement and valuation of health providers' time for the management of childhood pneumonia in rural Malawi - An empirical study

Background: Human resources are a major cost driver in childhood pneumonia case management. Introduction of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) in Malawi can lead to savings on staff time and salaries due to reductions in pneumonia cases requiring admission. Reliable estimates of human resource costs are vital for use in economic evaluations of PCV-13 introduction. Methods: Twenty-eight severe and twenty-four very severe pneumonia inpatients under the age of five were tracked from admission to discharge by paediatric ward staff using self-administered timesheets at Mchinji District Hospital between June and August 2012. All activities performed and the time spent on each activity were recorded. A monetary value was assigned to the time by allocating a corresponding percentage of the health workers' salary. All costs are reported in 2012 US$. Results: A total of 1,017 entries, grouped according to 22 different activity labels, were recorded during the observation period. On average, 99 min (standard deviation, SD = 46) were spent on each admission: 93 (SD = 38) for severe and 106 (SD = 55) for very severe cases. Approximately 40$ 2 per bed-day and, on average, US$29.5 per severe pneumonia admission and US$ 37.7 per very severe admission. Conclusions: Self-reporting was successfully used in this context to generate reliable estimates of human resource time and costs of childhood pneumonia treatment. Assuming vaccine efficacy of 41 % and 90 % coverage, PCV-13 introduction in Malawi can save over US$ 2 million per year in staff costs alone

Can We Predict Oral Antibiotic Treatment Failure in Children with Fast-Breathing Pneumonia Managed at the Community Level? A Prospective Cohort Study in Malawi

Pneumonia is the leading cause of infectious death amongst children globally, with the highest burden in Africa. Early identification of children at risk of treatment failure in the community and prompt referral could lower mortality. A number of clinical markers have been independently associated with oral antibiotic failure in childhood pneumonia. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for fast-breathing pneumonia treatment failure in sub-Saharan Africa

Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001–12: a retrospective observational study

Background: Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. Methods: Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi's Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children's clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2–11 months of age, and 12–59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models. Findings: Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92·7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6·6% (95% CI 6·4–6·7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15·2% [13·4–17·1]) and 2012 (4·5% [4·1–4·9]; ptrend<0·0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2–11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11·8%), severe undernutrition (15·4%), severe acute malnutrition (34·8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9·0%). Interpretation: Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Predictors of treatment failure after multiple imputation: odds ratios and confidence intervals.

<p>CI: confidence interval; MUAC: mid-upper arm circumference; PCV13: 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. ‘Fast’ respiratory rate was defined as >50 breaths per minute for infants aged 2–11 months and >40 breath per minute for 12-59months, and ‘very fast’ was >70 breaths per minute for infants aged 2–11 months and >60 breath per minute for 12-59months.</p><p>*p-value<0.05</p><p>Predictors of treatment failure after multiple imputation: odds ratios and confidence intervals.</p